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Empirical testing of genuine savings as an indicator of weak sustainability: a three-country analysis of long run trends

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  • Oxley, Les
  • Hanley, Nick
  • Greasley, David
  • Blum, Matthias
  • McLaughlin, Eoin
  • Kunnas, Jan
  • Warde, Paul

Abstract

Genuine Savings has emerged as a widely-used indicator of sustainable development. In this paper, we use long-term data stretching back to 1870 to undertake empirical tests of the relationship between Genuine Savings (GS) and future well-being for three countries: Britain, the USA and Germany. Our tests are based on an underlying theoretical relationship between GS and changes in the present value of future consumption. Based on both single country and panel results, we find evidence supporting the existence of a cointegrating (long run equilibrium) relationship between GS and future well-being, and fail to reject the basic theoretical result on the relationship between these two macroeconomic variables. This provides some support for the GS measure of weak sustainability. We also show the effects of modelling shocks, such as World War Two and the Great Depression.

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  • Oxley, Les & Hanley, Nick & Greasley, David & Blum, Matthias & McLaughlin, Eoin & Kunnas, Jan & Warde, Paul, 2014. "Empirical testing of genuine savings as an indicator of weak sustainability: a three-country analysis of long run trends," SIRE Discussion Papers 2014-007, Scottish Institute for Research in Economics (SIRE).
    • Handle: RePEc:edn:sirdps:551
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    Cited by:

    1. Luke Mcgrath & Stephen Hynes & John Mchale, 2022. "Reassessing Ireland’s economic development through the lens of sustainable development [Sustainability and the measurement of wealth]," European Review of Economic History, European Historical Economics Society, vol. 26(3), pages 399-422.
    2. Mubashir Qasim & Les Oxley & Eoin McLaughlin, 2020. "Genuine savings as a test of New Zealand weak sustainability," Environment, Development and Sustainability: A Multidisciplinary Approach to the Theory and Practice of Sustainable Development, Springer, vol. 22(1), pages 89-127, January.
    3. Nick Hanley & Louis Dupuy & Eoin McLaughlin, 2015. "Genuine Savings And Sustainability," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 29(4), pages 779-806, September.
    4. Natalia Zugravu-Soilita & Vincent Geronimi & Jessy Tsang & Christine Le Gargasson, 2020. "Promoting heritage for a sustainable development: the case of tourism in the island economies [Promouvoir le patrimoine pour un développement soutenable : le cas du tourisme dans les économies insu," Post-Print hal-03709168, HAL.
    5. Matthias Blum & Cristián Ducoing & Eoin McLaughlin, 2016. "Genuine Savings in developing and developed countries, 1900-2000," Discussion Papers in Environment and Development Economics 2016-15, University of St. Andrews, School of Geography and Sustainable Development.
    6. David Greasley & Jakob B. Madsen, 2017. "The Rise and Fall of Exceptional Australian Incomes Since 1800," Australian Economic History Review, Economic History Society of Australia and New Zealand, vol. 57(3), pages 264-290, November.
    7. Luke McGrath & Stephen Hynes & John McHale, 2022. "The Air we Breathe: Estimates of Air Pollution Extended Genuine Savings for Europe," Review of Income and Wealth, International Association for Research in Income and Wealth, vol. 68(1), pages 161-188, March.
    8. Greasley, David & McLaughlin, Eoin & Hanley, Nick & Oxley, Les, 2017. "Australia: a land of missed opportunities?," Environment and Development Economics, Cambridge University Press, vol. 22(6), pages 674-698, December.
    9. Mota, Rui Pedro & Cunha-e-Sá, Maria A., 2019. "The Role of Technological Progress in Testing Adjusted Net Savings: Evidence from OECD Countries," Ecological Economics, Elsevier, vol. 164(C), pages 1-1.

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    Keywords

    Weak sustainability; Genuine Savings; comprehensive investment; economic history; indicators; cointegration;
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