IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/edj/ceauch/227.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Un Análisis Econométrico del Consumo Mundial de Celulosa

Author

Listed:
  • José Ignacio Sémbler
  • Patricio Meller
  • Joaquín Vial

Abstract

En este trabajo se especifica y estima un modelo econométrico para el consumo de celulosa a nivel mundial y desagregado según los principales países consumidores. El modelo utilizado corresponde a uno de demanda derivada para una firma productora de papel representativa que demandará celulosa como un insumo más para su producción. Esta demanda es posteriormente agregada a nivel de país para la estimación econométrica. Las elasticidades del consumo mundial son obtenidas mediante simulaciones del modelo agregado. Luego se estudia la capacidad del modelo para replicar los datos históricos, su respuesta ante shocks transitorios sobre ciertas variables relevantes y su comportamiento fuera del período de estimación. Los resultados obtenidos son acordes con la evidencia empírica existente. La elasticidad precio del consumo a nivel mundial tiene un valor -0,20 en el corto plazo (CP) y -0,24 en el largo plazo (LP). El ingreso de los países resultó ser una de las variables que tiene gran influencia en el consumo de celulosa; la elasticidad ingreso encontrada fue 1,02 y 1,12 para el CP y LP respectivamente. En este estudio se incorporó también el efecto del precio del papel reciclado, obteniéndose una elasticidad precio cruzada de 0,22 en el CP y de 0,24 en el LP, lo que pone de manifiesto la sustitución entre estos productos. Para el precio de la energía se obtuvo una elasticidad de -0,01 tanto en el CP como en el LP. El hecho que no se registraran diferencias significativas entre las elasticidades de corto y largo plazo indicaría según el modelo planteado, que el consumo de celulosa no sufre mayores ajustes entre lo que es consumo corriente y el de largo plazo o de equilibrio. Los resultados indican además que si bien es innegable la importancia creciente en el consumo mundial de celulosa que han tenido países en vías de desarrollo como China, actualmente son los países industrializados los que tienen una mayor incidencia en el consumo mundial; luego, escenarios futuros para el consumo de este producto, al menos en el corto plazo, debiesen estar ligados con el comportamiento de estos países. El estudio muestra además que el modelo agregado es capaz de replicar satisfactoriamente los datos históricos dentro de la muestra, así como también los datos fuera de la muestra. Finalmente una proyección a mediando plazo para el período 2003-2008 predice que el consumo de este producto debiese crecer a una tasa promedio anual del 2,3%, cifra acorde con las proyecciones que maneja la industria.

Suggested Citation

  • José Ignacio Sémbler & Patricio Meller & Joaquín Vial, 2006. "Un Análisis Econométrico del Consumo Mundial de Celulosa," Documentos de Trabajo 227, Centro de Economía Aplicada, Universidad de Chile.
    • Handle: RePEc:edj:ceauch:227
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.cea-uchile.cl/wp-content/uploads/doctrab/ASOCFILE120060927172115.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. James G. MacKinnon & Russell Davidson, 1999. "Artificial Regressions," Working Paper 978, Economics Department, Queen's University.
    2. repec:hhs:iuiwop:536 is not listed on IDEAS
    3. Bergman, Mats & Johansson, Per, 2000. "Strategic Investments in the Pulp and Paper Industry: A Count Data Regression Analysis," Umeå Economic Studies 536, Umeå University, Department of Economics.
    4. Hausman, Jerry, 2015. "Specification tests in econometrics," Applied Econometrics, Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration (RANEPA), vol. 38(2), pages 112-134.
    5. Davidson, Russell & MacKinnon, James G., 1989. "Testing for Consistency using Artificial Regressions," Econometric Theory, Cambridge University Press, vol. 5(3), pages 363-384, December.
    6. Davidson, Russell & MacKinnon, James G., 1993. "Estimation and Inference in Econometrics," OUP Catalogue, Oxford University Press, number 9780195060119.
    7. Russell Davidson & James G. MacKinnon, 1988. "Specification Tests Based on Artificial Regressions," Working Paper 707, Economics Department, Queen's University.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Doko Tchatoka, Firmin & Dufour, Jean-Marie, 2020. "Exogeneity tests, incomplete models, weak identification and non-Gaussian distributions: Invariance and finite-sample distributional theory," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 218(2), pages 390-418.
    2. Kenneth Stewart & Kenneth Stewart, 2000. "GNR, MGR, and exact misspeclfication testing," Econometric Reviews, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 19(2), pages 233-240.
    3. Boris Dodonov & Christian Von Hirschhausen & Petra Opitz & Pavlo Sugolov, 2002. "Efficient Infrastructure Supply for Economic Development in Transition Countries: The Case of Ukraine," Post-Communist Economies, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 14(2), pages 149-167.
    4. Kiviet, Jan F. & Pleus, Milan, 2017. "The performance of tests on endogeneity of subsets of explanatory variables scanned by simulation," Econometrics and Statistics, Elsevier, vol. 2(C), pages 1-21.
    5. Felicitas Nowak-Lehmann D. & Inmaculada Martínez- Zarzoso, 2003. "The interplay of export supply and the real exchange rate. Evidence for Mercosur exports to the EU," International Trade 0309020, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    6. Javier Capó Parrilla, 2009. "Curva de Kuznets ambiental: Evidencia para Europa," CRE Working Papers (Documents de treball del CRE) 2009/3, Centre de Recerca Econòmica (UIB ·"Sa Nostra").
    7. Benoît Mahy & François Rycx & Mélanie Volral, 2011. "Does Wage Dispersion Make All Firms Productive?," Scottish Journal of Political Economy, Scottish Economic Society, vol. 58(4), pages 455-489, September.
    8. Gerlach, Stefan & Peng, Wensheng, 2005. "Bank lending and property prices in Hong Kong," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 29(2), pages 461-481, February.
    9. Grossmann, Volker & Stadelmann, David, 2008. "International Mobility of the Highly Skilled, Endogenous R&D, and Public Infrastructure Investment," IZA Discussion Papers 3366, Institute of Labor Economics (IZA).
    10. Natalia Tamirisa, 2003. "Trade in Financial Services and Capital Movements," Journal of Financial Services Research, Springer;Western Finance Association, vol. 24(1), pages 47-66, August.
    11. Tomaso Duso & Astrid Jung, 2007. "Market Conduct and Endogenous Lobbying: Evidence from the U.S. Mobile Telecommunications Industry," Journal of Industry, Competition and Trade, Springer, vol. 7(1), pages 9-29, March.
    12. Benoit Mahy & Mélanie Volral, 2011. "Firm Training and Labour Demand in Belgium :Does Productivity Dominate Cost Effects ?," Brussels Economic Review, ULB -- Universite Libre de Bruxelles, vol. 54(4), pages 367-388.
    13. Trevor Fitzpatrick & Kieran Mcquinn, 2007. "House Prices And Mortgage Credit: Empirical Evidence For Ireland," Manchester School, University of Manchester, vol. 75(1), pages 82-103, January.
    14. P. Petrakis & P. Kostis, 2015. "The Role of Knowledge and Trust in SMEs," Journal of the Knowledge Economy, Springer;Portland International Center for Management of Engineering and Technology (PICMET), vol. 6(1), pages 105-124, March.
    15. Rémi Bazillier, 2004. "Core labour standards and economic growth," Cahiers de la Maison des Sciences Economiques bla04088, Université Panthéon-Sorbonne (Paris 1).
    16. Schechtman, Ricardo & Gaglianone, Wagner Piazza, 2012. "Macro stress testing of credit risk focused on the tails," Journal of Financial Stability, Elsevier, vol. 8(3), pages 174-192.
    17. Tomaso Duso & Astrid Jung, 2007. "Market Conduct and Endogenous Lobbying: Evidence from the U.S. Mobile Telecommunications Industry," Journal of Industry, Competition and Trade, Springer, vol. 7(1), pages 9-29, March.
    18. Marco Di Domizio & Lorenzo Neri & Giambattista Rossi & Antonella Russo, 2019. "Sport O Business? Il Calcio-Mercato Si Rivela," Rivista di Diritto ed Economia dello Sport, Centro di diritto e business dello Sport, vol. 15(2), pages 121-144, ottobre.
    19. Tongurai, Jittima & Vithessonthi, Chaiporn, 2022. "Learning, foreign operations and operating performance," Global Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 52(C).
    20. Hjelm, Göran, 2004. "When Are Fiscal Contractions Successful? Lessons for Countries Within and Outside the EMU," Working Papers 92, National Institute of Economic Research.

    More about this item

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:edj:ceauch:227. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: the person in charge (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/ceuclcl.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.