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Extreme Value Theory: Value at Risk and Returns Dependence Around the World

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  • Viviana Fernández

Abstract

This paper presents two applications of Extreme Value Theory (EVT) to financial markets: computation of value at risk and assets returns dependence under extreme events (i.e. tail dependence). We use a sample comprised of the United States, Europe, Asia, and Latin America. Our main findings are the following. First, on average, EVT gives the most accurate estimates of value at risk. Second, tail dependence decreases when filtering out heteroscedasticity and serial correlation by multivariate GARCH models. Both findings are in agreement with previous research in this area for other financial markets.

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  • Viviana Fernández, 2003. "Extreme Value Theory: Value at Risk and Returns Dependence Around the World," Documentos de Trabajo 161, Centro de Economía Aplicada, Universidad de Chile.
    • Handle: RePEc:edj:ceauch:161
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    1. Bollerslev, Tim & Engle, Robert F & Wooldridge, Jeffrey M, 1988. "A Capital Asset Pricing Model with Time-Varying Covariances," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 96(1), pages 116-131, February.
    2. Rockinger, Michael & Poon, Ser-Huang & Tawn, Jonathan, 2001. "New Extreme-Value Dependence Measures and Finance Applications," CEPR Discussion Papers 2762, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    3. McNeil, Alexander J. & Frey, Rudiger, 2000. "Estimation of tail-related risk measures for heteroscedastic financial time series: an extreme value approach," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 7(3-4), pages 271-300, November.
    4. Robert Engle, 2001. "GARCH 101: The Use of ARCH/GARCH Models in Applied Econometrics," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 15(4), pages 157-168, Fall.
    5. Engle, Robert F & Gonzalez-Rivera, Gloria, 1991. "Semiparametric ARCH Models," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 9(4), pages 345-359, October.
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    Cited by:

    1. Qian Chen & David E. Giles & Hui Feng, 2012. "The extreme-value dependence between the Chinese and other international stock markets," Applied Financial Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 22(14), pages 1147-1160, July.
    2. Aktham I. Maghyereh & Haitham A. Al Zoubi & Haitham Nobanee, 2007. "Price Limit and Volatility in Taiwan Stock Exchange: Some Additional Evidence from the Extreme Value Approach," Review of Pacific Basin Financial Markets and Policies (RPBFMP), World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd., vol. 10(01), pages 51-61.
    3. Miguel Antonio Alba Suárez & Wilmer Pineda-Ríos & Javier Deaza Chaves, 2019. "Análisis comparativo de las metodologías de estimación semiparamétricas y vía cópulas del Valor en Riesgo (VaR) en el mercado accionario colombiano," Remef - Revista Mexicana de Economía y Finanzas Nueva Época REMEF (The Mexican Journal of Economics and Finance), Instituto Mexicano de Ejecutivos de Finanzas, IMEF, vol. 14(2), pages 279-307, Abril-Jun.

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