IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/ecm/wc2000/1596.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Universal Banking and the Pricing of Securities Risk: Historical Evidence from Germany

Author

Listed:
  • Peter Bossaerts

    (California Institute of Technology)

  • Caroline Fohlin

    (California Institute of Technology)

Abstract

This paper investigates the importance of financial institutions, particularly universal banks, in the pricing of risk in securities markets. Recent research on modern economies, finds that three factors explain the cross-section of average stock returns: (i) a stock's sensitivity to market-wide price movements (``beta''), (ii) market capitalization, and (iii) book value of equity relative to its market price (the value effect). The German financial system of the pre-World War I period is a particularly informative case, since it enjoyed both a large and active stock market as well as powerful, relationship-oriented universal banks. In such a system, banks are often seen as particularly important for resolving information problems and may therefore improve risk sharing. If so, the three-factor model may fail to explain securities pricing. Banks (as opposed to finance companies and mutual funds) have diminished in importance in American corporate finance. One goal of this study, therefore, is to determine whether the decline of banks is irrelevant or is detrimental to social welfare. The future usefulness of banks hinges on their ability to contribute something that competitive markets cannot or do not. The theoretical literature offers conflicting hypotheses about this issue, making the question ultimately an empirical one. The study uses standard methodology in order to facilitate cross-reference to existing empirical literature. The methodology can be criticized on various asset-pricing theoretic grounds (most imortantly, it is not robust to deleting conditioning information). Nonetheless, such analyses have led to the discovery of several robust statistical regularities. While the approach clearly is not a formal test of a particular asset pricing model (the CAPM or APT), such models typically fail when confronted with the data. By using various sampling techniques, the analysis also estimates the importance of survivorship bias in the estimation of pricing models.

Suggested Citation

  • Peter Bossaerts & Caroline Fohlin, 2000. "Universal Banking and the Pricing of Securities Risk: Historical Evidence from Germany," Econometric Society World Congress 2000 Contributed Papers 1596, Econometric Society.
    • Handle: RePEc:ecm:wc2000:1596
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://fmwww.bc.edu/RePEc/es2000/1596.pdf
    File Function: main text
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. James L. Davis & Eugene F. Fama & Kenneth R. French, 2000. "Characteristics, Covariances, and Average Returns: 1929 to 1997," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 55(1), pages 389-406, February.
    2. Daniel, Kent & Titman, Sheridan, 1997. "Evidence on the Characteristics of Cross Sectional Variation in Stock Returns," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 52(1), pages 1-33, March.
    3. Jonathan B. Berk, 2000. "Sorting Out Sorts," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 55(1), pages 407-427, February.
    4. Xavier Freixas & Jean-Charles Rochet, 1997. "Microeconomics of Banking," MIT Press Books, The MIT Press, edition 1, volume 1, number 0262061937, December.
    5. repec:bla:jfinan:v:53:y:1998:i:6:p:1975-1999 is not listed on IDEAS
    6. Fama, Eugene F & MacBeth, James D, 1973. "Risk, Return, and Equilibrium: Empirical Tests," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 81(3), pages 607-636, May-June.
    7. Fama, Eugene F & French, Kenneth R, 1996. "Multifactor Explanations of Asset Pricing Anomalies," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 51(1), pages 55-84, March.
    8. Ferson, Wayne E. & Sarkissian, Sergei & Simin, Timothy, 1999. "The alpha factor asset pricing model: A parable," Journal of Financial Markets, Elsevier, vol. 2(1), pages 49-68, February.
    9. Michael Magill, 2000. "Equity, Options and Efficiency in the Presence of Moral Hazard," Econometric Society World Congress 2000 Contributed Papers 1845, Econometric Society.
    10. Michael Magill & Martine Quinzii, "undated". "Incentives And Risk Sharing In A Stock Market Equilibrium," Department of Economics 96-12, California Davis - Department of Economics.
    11. Fama, Eugene F. & French, Kenneth R., 1993. "Common risk factors in the returns on stocks and bonds," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 33(1), pages 3-56, February.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Wallmeier, Martin & Tauscher, Kathrin, 2012. "A Note on the Impact of Portfolio Overlapping in Tests of the Fama and French Three-Factor Model," FSES Working Papers 433, Faculty of Economics and Social Sciences, University of Freiburg/Fribourg Switzerland.
    2. van Dijk, Mathijs A., 2011. "Is size dead? A review of the size effect in equity returns," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 35(12), pages 3263-3274.
    3. Kathrin Tauscher & Martin Wallmeier, 2016. "Portfolio Overlapping Bias in Tests of the Fama–French Three†Factor Model," European Financial Management, European Financial Management Association, vol. 22(3), pages 367-393, June.
    4. Bollerslev, Tim & Zhang, Benjamin Y. B., 2003. "Measuring and modeling systematic risk in factor pricing models using high-frequency data," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 10(5), pages 533-558, December.
    5. Calvet, Laurent E. & Betermier, Sebastien & Jo, Evan, 2019. "A Supply and Demand Approach to Equity Pricing," CEPR Discussion Papers 13974, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    6. Amit Goyal, 2012. "Empirical cross-sectional asset pricing: a survey," Financial Markets and Portfolio Management, Springer;Swiss Society for Financial Market Research, vol. 26(1), pages 3-38, March.
    7. Gregory Nazaire & Maria Pacurar & Oumar Sy, 2020. "Betas versus characteristics: A practical perspective," European Financial Management, European Financial Management Association, vol. 26(5), pages 1385-1413, November.
    8. David Hirshleifer, 2001. "Investor Psychology and Asset Pricing," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 56(4), pages 1533-1597, August.
    9. repec:bla:jfinan:v:58:y:2003:i:5:p:1969-1996 is not listed on IDEAS
    10. Du, Ding, 2013. "Another look at the cross-section and time-series of stock returns: 1951 to 2011," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 20(C), pages 130-146.
    11. Pavel Bandarchuk & Jens Hilscher, 2013. "Sources of Momentum Profits: Evidence on the Irrelevance of Characteristics," Review of Finance, European Finance Association, vol. 17(2), pages 809-845.
    12. Joachim Freyberger & Andreas Neuhierl & Michael Weber, 2020. "Dissecting Characteristics Nonparametrically," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 33(5), pages 2326-2377.
    13. Kewei Hou & Chen Xue & Lu Zhang, 2012. "Digesting Anomalies: An Investment Approach," NBER Working Papers 18435, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    14. Christian Walkshäusl & Sebastian Lobe, 2014. "The Alternative Three†Factor Model: An Alternative beyond US Markets?," European Financial Management, European Financial Management Association, vol. 20(1), pages 33-70, January.
    15. Christian Fieberg & Armin Varmaz & Thorsten Poddig, 2016. "Covariances vs. characteristics: what does explain the cross section of the German stock market returns?," Business Research, Springer;German Academic Association for Business Research, vol. 9(1), pages 27-50, April.
    16. Nielsen, Caren Yinxia, 2011. "Hidden in the Factors? The Effect of Credit Risk on the Cross-section of Equity Returns," Working Papers 2011:38, Lund University, Department of Economics, revised 01 Oct 2016.
    17. George Leledakis & Ian Davidson & George Karathanassis, 2003. "Cross-sectional estimation of stock returns in small markets: The case of the Athens Stock Exchange," Applied Financial Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 13(6), pages 413-426.
    18. de Groot, Wilma & Huij, Joop, 2018. "Are the Fama-French factors really compensation for distress risk?," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 86(C), pages 50-69.
    19. repec:fau:fauart:v:65:y:2015:i:1:p:84-104 is not listed on IDEAS
    20. Amir Amel†Zadeh, 2011. "The Return of the Size Anomaly: Evidence from the German Stock Market," European Financial Management, European Financial Management Association, vol. 17(1), pages 145-182, January.
    21. Grauer, Robert R. & Janmaat, Johannus A., 2004. "The unintended consequences of grouping in tests of asset pricing models," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 28(12), pages 2889-2914, December.
    22. Dimitrios D. Thomakos & Michail S. Koubouros, 2011. "The Role of Realised Volatility in the Athens Stock Exchange," Multinational Finance Journal, Multinational Finance Journal, vol. 15(1-2), pages 87-124, March - J.

    More about this item

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:ecm:wc2000:1596. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Christopher F. Baum (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/essssea.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.