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Multiple Priors as Similarity Weighted Frequencies

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  • Eichberger, Jurgen
  • Guerdjikova, Ani

Abstract

In this paper, we consider a decision-maker who tries to learn the distribution of outcomes from previously observed cases. For each observed sequence of cases, the decision-maker entertains a set of priors expressing his hypotheses about the underlying probability distribution. The set of probability distributions shrinks when new information confirms old data. We impose a version of the concatenation axiom introduced in BILLOT, GILBOA, SAMET AND SCHMEIDLER (2005) which insures that the sets of priors can be represented as a weighted sum of the observed frequencies of cases. The weights are the uniquely determined similarities between the observed cases and the case under investigation.

Suggested Citation

  • Eichberger, Jurgen & Guerdjikova, Ani, 2007. "Multiple Priors as Similarity Weighted Frequencies," Working Papers 07-03, Cornell University, Center for Analytic Economics.
    • Handle: RePEc:ecl:corcae:07-03
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    1. Antoine Billot & Itzhak Gilboa & Dov Samet & David Schmeidler, 2012. "Probabilities as Similarity-Weighted Frequencies," World Scientific Book Chapters, in: Case-Based Predictions An Axiomatic Approach to Prediction, Classification and Statistical Learning, chapter 7, pages 169-184, World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd..
    2. Christophe Gonzales & Jean-Yves Jaffray, 1998. "Imprecise sampling and direct decision making," Annals of Operations Research, Springer, vol. 80(0), pages 207-235, January.
    3. Gajdos, T. & Hayashi, T. & Tallon, J.-M. & Vergnaud, J.-C., 2008. "Attitude toward imprecise information," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 140(1), pages 27-65, May.
    4. Itzhak Gilboa & Offer Lieberman & David Schmeidler, 2012. "Empirical Similarity," World Scientific Book Chapters, in: Case-Based Predictions An Axiomatic Approach to Prediction, Classification and Statistical Learning, chapter 9, pages 211-243, World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd..
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    1. Eichberger, Jürgen & Guerdjikova, Ani, 2008. "Case-based expected utility : preferences over actions and data," Papers 08-32, Sonderforschungsbreich 504.

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