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House Price Shocks, Negative Equity and Household Consumption in the UK in the 1990s

Author

Listed:
  • Disney, Richard

    (University of Nottingham)

  • Andrew Henley

    (and Institute for Fiscal Studies)

  • David Jevons

    (University of Wales Aberystwyth)

Abstract

We examine the impact of housing capital gains on savings behaviour during the 1990s British housing market cycle using microdata from the British Household Panel Survey and county-level house price data. We condition the models on household real financial capital gains using Family Resources Survey data. We find a marginal propensity to consume out of housing wealth of between 0.01 and 0.03, depending on specification. Among our novel findings are asymmetric behaviour between periods of house price rises and falls, with stronger consumption response during periods of house price increases, and a disproportionate impact on saving if the household has negative housing equity.

Suggested Citation

  • Disney, Richard & Andrew Henley & David Jevons, 2002. "House Price Shocks, Negative Equity and Household Consumption in the UK in the 1990s," Royal Economic Society Annual Conference 2002 64, Royal Economic Society.
    • Handle: RePEc:ecj:ac2002:64
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    Cited by:

    1. Helmut Rainer & Ian Smith, 2010. "Staying together for the sake of the home?: house price shocks and partnership dissolution in the UK," Journal of the Royal Statistical Society Series A, Royal Statistical Society, vol. 173(3), pages 557-574, July.
    2. Hong Kong Monetary Authority, 2008. "The housing market channel of the monetary transmission mechanism in Hong Kong," BIS Papers chapters, in: Bank for International Settlements (ed.), Transmission mechanisms for monetary policy in emerging market economies, volume 35, pages 221-234, Bank for International Settlements.
    3. Christopher D. Carroll & Misuzu Otsuka & Jirka Slacalek, 2006. "How Large Is the Housing Wealth Effect? A New Approach," NBER Working Papers 12746, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    4. Christelis, Dimitris & Georgarakos, Dimitris & Jappelli, Tullio, 2015. "Wealth shocks, unemployment shocks and consumption in the wake of the Great Recession," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 72(C), pages 21-41.
    5. Eva Sierminska & Yelena Takhtamanova, 2006. "Wealth Effects Out of Financial and Housing Wealth: Cross Country and Age Group Comparisons," LWS Working papers 4, LIS Cross-National Data Center in Luxembourg.
    6. Martin Farnham & Purvi Sevak, 2016. "Housing Wealth and Retirement Timing," CESifo Economic Studies, CESifo Group, vol. 62(1), pages 26-46.
    7. Helmut Rainer & Ian Smith, 2010. "Staying together for the sake of the home?: house price shocks and partnership dissolution in the UK," Journal of the Royal Statistical Society Series A, Royal Statistical Society, vol. 173(3), pages 557-574, July.
    8. Olympia Bover, 2005. "Wealth effects on consumption: microeconometric estimates from the Spanish survey of household finances," Working Papers 0522, Banco de España.
    9. Robert-Paul Berben & Kerstin Bernoth & Mauro Mastrogiacomo, 2007. "Households' response to wealth changes: do gains or losses make a difference?," IFC Bulletins chapters, in: Bank for International Settlements (ed.), Proceedings of the IFC Conference on "Measuring the financial position of the household sector", Basel, 30-31 August 2006 - Volume 1, volume 25, pages 145-160, Bank for International Settlements.
    10. Amina Ahec �onje & Anita Ceh Casni & Maru�ka Vizek, 2012. "Does housing wealth affect private consumption in European post-transition countries? Evidence from linear and threshold models," Post-Communist Economies, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 24(1), pages 73-85, June.
    11. Chau Do & Irina Paley, 2012. "Altruism from the house: the impact of home equity on charitable giving," Review of Economics of the Household, Springer, vol. 10(3), pages 375-393, September.
    12. Jacinta C. Nwachukwu, 2017. "Tenure and Spending Within UK Households at the End of the Recent Recession," Social Indicators Research: An International and Interdisciplinary Journal for Quality-of-Life Measurement, Springer, vol. 133(3), pages 1075-1104, September.
    13. Luigi Guiso & Monica Paiella & Ignazio Visco, 2005. "Do capital gains affect consumption? Estimates of wealth effects from Italian households� behavior," Temi di discussione (Economic working papers) 555, Bank of Italy, Economic Research and International Relations Area.
    14. Richard Disney & Sarah Bridges & John Gathergood, 2006. "Housing Wealth and Household Indebtedness: Is there a Household 'Financial Accelerator'?," Discussion Papers 06/01, University of Nottingham, Centre for Finance, Credit and Macroeconomics (CFCM).
    15. Márquez, Elena & Martínez-Cañete, Ana R. & Pérez-Soba, Inés, 2013. "Wealth shocks, credit conditions and asymmetric consumption response: Empirical evidence for the UK," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 33(C), pages 357-366.
    16. Mauro Mastrogiacomo, 2010. "Testing Consumers' Asymmetric Perception Of Changes In Household Financial Situation," Review of Income and Wealth, International Association for Research in Income and Wealth, vol. 56(2), pages 327-350, June.
    17. Laura Blow & Lars Nesheim, 2009. "Dynamic housing expenditures and household welfare," CeMMAP working papers CWP04/09, Centre for Microdata Methods and Practice, Institute for Fiscal Studies.
    18. Bover, Olympia, 2006. "Wealth Effects on Consumption: Microeconometric Estimates from a New Survey of Household Finances," CEPR Discussion Papers 5874, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.

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