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The implications of CIP deviations for international capital flows

Author

Listed:
  • Kubitza, Christian
  • Sigaux, Jean-David
  • Vandeweyer, Quentin

Abstract

We study the implications of deviations from covered interest rate parity for international capital flows using novel data covering euro-area derivatives and securities holdings. Consistent with a dynamic model of currency risk hedging, we document that investors’ holdings of USD bonds decrease following a widening in the USD-EUR cross-currency basis (CCB). This effect is driven by investors with larger FX rollover risk and hedging mandates, and it is robust to instrumenting the CCB. These shifts in bond demand significantly affect bond prices. Our findings shed light on a new determinant of international capital flows with important consequences for financial stability. JEL Classification: F21, F31, G11, G21, G22, G23, E44

Suggested Citation

  • Kubitza, Christian & Sigaux, Jean-David & Vandeweyer, Quentin, 2025. "The implications of CIP deviations for international capital flows," Working Paper Series 3017, European Central Bank.
    • Handle: RePEc:ecb:ecbwps:20253017
    Note: 1934182
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    currency hedging; derivatives; foreign exchange; FX swap; institutional investors;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • F21 - International Economics - - International Factor Movements and International Business - - - International Investment; Long-Term Capital Movements
    • F31 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Foreign Exchange
    • G11 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Portfolio Choice; Investment Decisions
    • G21 - Financial Economics - - Financial Institutions and Services - - - Banks; Other Depository Institutions; Micro Finance Institutions; Mortgages
    • G22 - Financial Economics - - Financial Institutions and Services - - - Insurance; Insurance Companies; Actuarial Studies
    • G23 - Financial Economics - - Financial Institutions and Services - - - Non-bank Financial Institutions; Financial Instruments; Institutional Investors
    • E44 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Financial Markets and the Macroeconomy

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