Granger causality and regime inference in Bayesian Markov-Switching VARs
Author
Abstract
Suggested Citation
Note: 563011
Download full text from publisher
References listed on IDEAS
- Marta Banbura & Domenico Giannone & Lucrezia Reichlin, 2010.
"Large Bayesian vector auto regressions,"
Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 25(1), pages 71-92.
- Reichlin, Lucrezia & Giannone, Domenico & Banbura, Marta, 2007. "Bayesian VARs with Large Panels," CEPR Discussion Papers 6326, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
- Martha Banbura & Domenico Giannone & Lucrezia Reichlin, 2008. "Large Bayesian VARs," Working Papers ECARES 2008_033, ULB -- Universite Libre de Bruxelles.
- Giannone, Domenico & Reichlin, Lucrezia & Bańbura, Marta, 2008. "Large Bayesian VARs," Working Paper Series 966, European Central Bank.
- Marta Bańbura, 2008. "Large Bayesian VARs," 2008 Meeting Papers 334, Society for Economic Dynamics.
- Dufour, Jean-Marie & Pelletier, Denis & Renault, Eric, 2006.
"Short run and long run causality in time series: inference,"
Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 132(2), pages 337-362, June.
- DUFOUR, Jean-Marie & PELLETIER, Denis & RENAULT, Éric, 2003. "Short run and long run causality in time series: Inference," Cahiers de recherche 2003-16, Universite de Montreal, Departement de sciences economiques.
- Jean-Marie Dufour & Denis Pelletier & Eric Renault, 2003. "Short Run and Long Run Causality in Time Series: Inference," CIRANO Working Papers 2003s-61, CIRANO.
- DUFOUR, Jean-Marie & PELLETIER, Denis & RENAULT, Éric, 2003. "Short Run and Long Run Causality in Time Series : Inference," Cahiers de recherche 14-2003, Centre interuniversitaire de recherche en économie quantitative, CIREQ.
- Boudjellaba, Hafida & Dufour, Jean-Marie & Roy, Roch, 1994.
"Simplified conditions for noncausality between vectors in multivariate ARMA models,"
Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 63(1), pages 271-287, July.
- Boudjellaba, H. & Dufour, J.M. & Roy, R., 1992. "Simplified Conditions for Non-Causality Between Vectors in Multivariate Arma Models," Cahiers de recherche 9236, Universite de Montreal, Departement de sciences economiques.
- Boudjellaba, H. & Dufour, J.M. & Roy, R., 1992. "Simplified Conditions for Non-Causality Between Vectors in Multivariate Arma Models," Cahiers de recherche 9236, Centre interuniversitaire de recherche en économie quantitative, CIREQ.
- Marta Banbura & Domenico Giannone & Lucrezia Reichlin, 2010.
"Large Bayesian vector auto regressions,"
Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 25(1), pages 71-92.
- Marta Bańbura & Domenico Giannone & Lucrezia Reichlin, 2010. "Large Bayesian vector auto regressions," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 25(1), pages 71-92, January.
- John Geweke, 1999. "Using Simulation Methods for Bayesian Econometric Models," Computing in Economics and Finance 1999 832, Society for Computational Economics.
- Thomas Doan & Robert B. Litterman & Christopher A. Sims, 1983.
"Forecasting and Conditional Projection Using Realistic Prior Distributions,"
NBER Working Papers
1202, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Thomas Doan & Robert B. Litterman & Christopher A. Sims, 1986. "Forecasting and conditional projection using realistic prior distribution," Staff Report 93, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis.
- Christiano, Lawrence J. & Ljungqvist, Lars, 1988. "Money does Granger-cause output in the bivariate money-output relation," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 22(2), pages 217-235, September.
- John Geweke, 1999.
"Using simulation methods for bayesian econometric models: inference, development,and communication,"
Econometric Reviews, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 18(1), pages 1-73.
- John Geweke, 1998. "Using simulation methods for Bayesian econometric models: inference, development, and communication," Staff Report 249, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis.
- Hamilton, James D, 1989. "A New Approach to the Economic Analysis of Nonstationary Time Series and the Business Cycle," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 57(2), pages 357-384, March.
- Chib S. & Jeliazkov I., 2001. "Marginal Likelihood From the Metropolis-Hastings Output," Journal of the American Statistical Association, American Statistical Association, vol. 96, pages 270-281, March.
- repec:ulb:ulbeco:2013/13388 is not listed on IDEAS
Citations
Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
Cited by:
- Ivan Mendieta-Munoz & Mengheng Li, 2019.
"The Multivariate Simultaneous Unobserved Compenents Model and Identification via Heteroskedasticity,"
Working Paper Series, Department of Economics, University of Utah
2019_06, University of Utah, Department of Economics.
- Mengheng Li & Ivan Mendieta-Munoz, 2019. "The multivariate simultaneous unobserved components model and identification via heteroskedasticity," Working Paper Series 2019/08, Economics Discipline Group, UTS Business School, University of Technology, Sydney.
- Toan Luu Duc Huynh, 2019. "Spillover Risks on Cryptocurrency Markets: A Look from VAR-SVAR Granger Causality and Student’s-t Copulas," JRFM, MDPI, vol. 12(2), pages 1-19, April.
- Tran, Bao-Linh & Chen, Chi-Chung & Tseng, Wei-Chun, 2022. "Causality between energy consumption and economic growth in the presence of GDP threshold effect: Evidence from OECD countries," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 251(C).
- Deniz Güvercin, 2020. "Boundaries on Turkish export-oriented industrialization," Journal of Economic Structures, Springer;Pan-Pacific Association of Input-Output Studies (PAPAIOS), vol. 9(1), pages 1-15, December.
Most related items
These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.- Matthieu Droumaguet & Anders Warne & Tomasz Wozniak, 2015. "Granger Causality and Regime Inference in Bayesian Markov-Switching VARs," Department of Economics - Working Papers Series 1191, The University of Melbourne.
- Matthieu Droumaguet & Tomasz Wozniak, 2012. "Bayesian Testing of Granger Causality in Markov-Switching VARs," Economics Working Papers ECO2012/06, European University Institute.
- Fuentes-Albero, Cristina & Melosi, Leonardo, 2013.
"Methods for computing marginal data densities from the Gibbs output,"
Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 175(2), pages 132-141.
- Cristina Fuentes-Albero & Leonardo Melosi, 2011. "Methods for Computing Marginal Data Densities from the Gibbs Output," Departmental Working Papers 201131, Rutgers University, Department of Economics.
- Sims, Christopher A. & Waggoner, Daniel F. & Zha, Tao, 2008.
"Methods for inference in large multiple-equation Markov-switching models,"
Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 146(2), pages 255-274, October.
- Christopher A. Sims & Daniel F. Waggoner & Tao Zha, 2006. "Methods for inference in large multiple-equation Markov-switching models," FRB Atlanta Working Paper 2006-22, Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta.
- Warne, Anders & Coenen, Günter & Christoffel, Kai, 2010. "Forecasting with DSGE models," Working Paper Series 1185, European Central Bank.
- Bekiros Stelios & Paccagnini Alessia, 2015.
"Estimating point and density forecasts for the US economy with a factor-augmented vector autoregressive DSGE model,"
Studies in Nonlinear Dynamics & Econometrics, De Gruyter, vol. 19(2), pages 107-136, April.
- Stelios D. Bekiros & Alessia Paccagnini, 2014. "Estimating point and density forecasts for the US economy with a factor-augmented vector autoregressive DSGE model," Open Access publications 10197/7588, School of Economics, University College Dublin.
- Frank Schorfheide & Dongho Song, 2015.
"Real-Time Forecasting With a Mixed-Frequency VAR,"
Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 33(3), pages 366-380, July.
- Frank Schorfheide & Dongho Song, 2012. "Real-time forecasting with a mixed-frequency VAR," Working Papers 701, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis.
- Frank Schorfheide & Dongho Song, 2013. "Real-Time Forecasting with a Mixed-Frequency VAR," NBER Working Papers 19712, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Woźniak, Tomasz, 2015.
"Testing causality between two vectors in multivariate GARCH models,"
International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 31(3), pages 876-894.
- Tomasz Wozniak, 2012. "Testing Causality Between Two Vectors in Multivariate GARCH Models," Economics Working Papers ECO2012/20, European University Institute.
- Tomasz Wozniak, 2012. "Testing Causality Between Two Vectors in Multivariate GARCH Models," Department of Economics - Working Papers Series 1139, The University of Melbourne.
- Karlsson, Sune, 2013.
"Forecasting with Bayesian Vector Autoregression,"
Handbook of Economic Forecasting, in: G. Elliott & C. Granger & A. Timmermann (ed.), Handbook of Economic Forecasting, edition 1, volume 2, chapter 0, pages 791-897,
Elsevier.
- Karlsson, Sune, 2012. "Forecasting with Bayesian Vector Autoregressions," Working Papers 2012:12, Örebro University, School of Business.
- Chan, Joshua C.C., 2023.
"Comparing stochastic volatility specifications for large Bayesian VARs,"
Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 235(2), pages 1419-1446.
- Joshua C. C. Chan, 2022. "Comparing Stochastic Volatility Specifications for Large Bayesian VARs," Papers 2208.13255, arXiv.org.
- Oskar Gustafsson & Mattias Villani & Pär Stockhammar, 2023.
"Bayesian optimization of hyperparameters from noisy marginal likelihood estimates,"
Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 38(4), pages 577-595, June.
- Oskar Gustafsson & Mattias Villani & Par Stockhammar, 2020. "Bayesian Optimization of Hyperparameters from Noisy Marginal Likelihood Estimates," Papers 2004.10092, arXiv.org, revised Aug 2022.
- Alessia Paccagnini, 2012. "Comparing Hybrid DSGE Models," Working Papers 228, University of Milano-Bicocca, Department of Economics, revised Dec 2012.
- Thomai Filippeli, 2011. "Theoretical Priors for BVAR Models & Quasi-Bayesian DSGE Model Estimation," 2011 Meeting Papers 396, Society for Economic Dynamics.
- Ching-Wai (Jeremy) Chiu & Haroon Mumtaz & Gabor Pinter, 2016. "Bayesian Vector Autoregressions with Non-Gaussian Shocks," CReMFi Discussion Papers 5, CReMFi, School of Economics and Finance, QMUL.
- Leeper, Eric M. & Zha, Tao, 2003.
"Modest policy interventions,"
Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 50(8), pages 1673-1700, November.
- Eric M. Leeper & Tao Zha, 1999. "Modest policy interventions," FRB Atlanta Working Paper 99-22, Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta.
- Eric M. Leeper & Tao Zha, 2003. "Modest policy interventions," FRB Atlanta Working Paper 2003-24, Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta.
- Eric M. Leeper & Tao Zha, 2002. "Modest policy interventions," FRB Atlanta Working Paper 2002-19, Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta.
- Eric M. Leeper & Tao Zha, 2002. "Modest Policy Interventions," NBER Working Papers 9192, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Andrea Carriero & Francesco Corsello & Massimiliano Marcellino, 2022.
"The global component of inflation volatility,"
Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 37(4), pages 700-721, June.
- Andrea Carriero & Francesco Corsello & Massimiliano Marcellino, 2018. "The global component of inflation volatility," Temi di discussione (Economic working papers) 1170, Bank of Italy, Economic Research and International Relations Area.
- Marcellino, Massimiliano & Carriero, Andrea & Corsello, Francesco, 2019. "The Global Component of Inflation Volatility," CEPR Discussion Papers 13470, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
- Balcilar, Mehmet & Gupta, Rangan & Shah, Zahra B., 2011.
"An in-sample and out-of-sample empirical investigation of the nonlinearity in house prices of South Africa,"
Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 28(3), pages 891-899, May.
- Mehmet Balcilar & Rangan Gupta & Zahra Shah, 2010. "An In-Sample and Out-of-Sample Empirical Investigation of the Nonlinearity in House Prices of South Africa," Working Papers 201008, University of Pretoria, Department of Economics.
- Richard Kleijn & Herman K. van Dijk, 2006.
"Bayes model averaging of cyclical decompositions in economic time series,"
Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 21(2), pages 191-212.
- Richard Kleijn & Herman K. van Dijk, 2006. "Bayes model averaging of cyclical decompositions in economic time series," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 21(2), pages 191-212, March.
- Kleijn, R.H. & van Dijk, H.K., 2003. "Bayes model averaging of cyclical decompositions in economic time series," Econometric Institute Research Papers EI 2003-48, Erasmus University Rotterdam, Erasmus School of Economics (ESE), Econometric Institute.
- Christopher A. Sims & Tao Zha, 2004. "MCMC method for Markov mixture simultaneous-equation models: a note," FRB Atlanta Working Paper 2004-15, Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta.
- Mehmet Balcilar & Rangan Gupta & Anandamayee Majumdar & Stephen M. Miller, 2012.
"Was the Recent Downturn in US GDP Predictable?,"
Working Papers
1210, University of Nevada, Las Vegas , Department of Economics.
- Mehmet Balcilar & Rangan Gupta & Anandamayee Majumdar & Stephen M. Miller, 2012. "Was the Recent Downturn in US GDP Predictable?," Working Papers 201230, University of Pretoria, Department of Economics.
- Mehmet Balcilar & Rangan Gupta & Anandamayee Majumdar & Stephen M. Miller, 2012. "Was the Recent Downturn in US GDP Predictable?," Working papers 2012-38, University of Connecticut, Department of Economics, revised Dec 2013.
More about this item
Keywords
Bayesian hypothesis testing; block Metropolis-Hastings sampling; Markov-switching models; mixture models; posterior odds ratio;All these keywords.
JEL classification:
- C11 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General - - - Bayesian Analysis: General
- C12 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General - - - Hypothesis Testing: General
- C32 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes; State Space Models
- C53 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Forecasting and Prediction Models; Simulation Methods
- E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles
NEP fields
This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:- NEP-ECM-2015-06-05 (Econometrics)
- NEP-ETS-2015-06-05 (Econometric Time Series)
- NEP-FOR-2015-06-05 (Forecasting)
Statistics
Access and download statisticsCorrections
All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:ecb:ecbwps:20151794. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.
If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.
If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .
If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Official Publications (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/emieude.html .
Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.