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Granger causality and regime inference in Bayesian Markov-Switching VARs

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Listed:
  • Warne, Anders
  • Droumaguet, Matthieu
  • Woźniak, Tomasz

Abstract

We derive restrictions for Granger noncausality in Markov-switching vector autoregressive models and also show under which conditions a variable does not affect the forecast of the hidden Markov process. Based on Bayesian approach to evaluating the hypotheses, the computational tools for posterior inference include a novel block Metropolis-Hastings sampling algorithm for the estimation of the restricted models. We analyze a system of monthly US data on money and income. The test results in MS-VARs contradict those in linear VARs: the money aggregate M1 is useful for forecasting income and for predicting the next period JEL Classification: C11, C12, C32, C53, E32

Suggested Citation

  • Warne, Anders & Droumaguet, Matthieu & Woźniak, Tomasz, 2015. "Granger causality and regime inference in Bayesian Markov-Switching VARs," Working Paper Series 1794, European Central Bank.
    • Handle: RePEc:ecb:ecbwps:20151794
    Note: 563011
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    File URL: https://www.ecb.europa.eu//pub/pdf/scpwps/ecbwp1794.en.pdf
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Cited by:

    1. Ivan Mendieta-Munoz & Mengheng Li, 2019. "The Multivariate Simultaneous Unobserved Compenents Model and Identification via Heteroskedasticity," Working Paper Series, Department of Economics, University of Utah 2019_06, University of Utah, Department of Economics.
    2. Toan Luu Duc Huynh, 2019. "Spillover Risks on Cryptocurrency Markets: A Look from VAR-SVAR Granger Causality and Student’s-t Copulas," JRFM, MDPI, vol. 12(2), pages 1-19, April.
    3. Tran, Bao-Linh & Chen, Chi-Chung & Tseng, Wei-Chun, 2022. "Causality between energy consumption and economic growth in the presence of GDP threshold effect: Evidence from OECD countries," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 251(C).
    4. Deniz Güvercin, 2020. "Boundaries on Turkish export-oriented industrialization," Journal of Economic Structures, Springer;Pan-Pacific Association of Input-Output Studies (PAPAIOS), vol. 9(1), pages 1-15, December.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Bayesian hypothesis testing; block Metropolis-Hastings sampling; Markov-switching models; mixture models; posterior odds ratio;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C11 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General - - - Bayesian Analysis: General
    • C12 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General - - - Hypothesis Testing: General
    • C32 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes; State Space Models
    • C53 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Forecasting and Prediction Models; Simulation Methods
    • E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles

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