Do professional forecasters behave as if they believed in the new Keynesian Phillips Curve for the euro area?
Author
Abstract
Suggested Citation
Note: 341468
Download full text from publisher
References listed on IDEAS
- Gali, Jordi & Gertler, Mark, 1999.
"Inflation dynamics: A structural econometric analysis,"
Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 44(2), pages 195-222, October.
- Jordi Galí & Mark Gertler, 1998. "Inflation dynamics: A structural econometric analysis," Economics Working Papers 341, Department of Economics and Business, Universitat Pompeu Fabra.
- Jordi Gali & Mark Gertler, 2000. "Inflation Dynamics: A Structural Econometric Analysis," NBER Working Papers 7551, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- William T. Dickens & Lorenz Goette & Erica L. Groshen & Steinar Holden & Julian Messina & Mark E. Schweitzer & Jarkko Turunen & Melanie E. Ward, 2007.
"How Wages Change: Micro Evidence from the International Wage Flexibility Project,"
Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 21(2), pages 195-214, Spring.
- Dickens, William T. & Götte, Lorenz & Groshen, Erica L. & Holden, Steinar & Messina, Julián & Schweitzer, Mark E. & Turunen, Jarkko & Ward-Warmedinger, Melanie E., 2006. "How Wages Change: Micro Evidence from the International Wage Flexibility Project," IZA Discussion Papers 2487, Institute of Labor Economics (IZA).
- William Dickens & Lorenz Goette & Erica L. Groshen & Steinar Holden & Julian Messina & Mark Schweitzer & Jarkko Turunen & Melanie Ward, 2007. "How Wages Change: Micro Evidence from the International Wage Flexibility Project," CSEF Working Papers 171, Centre for Studies in Economics and Finance (CSEF), University of Naples, Italy.
- William T. Dickens & Lorenz Goette & Erica L. Groshen & Steinar Holden & Julian Messina & Mark E. Schweitzer & Jarkko Turunen & Melanie Ward, 2007. "How wages change: micro evidence from the international wage flexibility project," Staff Reports 275, Federal Reserve Bank of New York.
- Dickens, William T. & Götte, Lorenz & Groshen, Erica L. & Holden, Steinar & Messina, Julián & Schweitzer, Mark E. & Turunen, Jarkko & Ward-Warmedinger, Melanie, 2006. "How wages change: micro evidence from the International Wage Flexibility Project," Working Paper Series 697, European Central Bank.
- William T. Dickens & Lorenz Goette & Erica L. Groshen & Steinar Holden & Julian Messina & Mark E. Schweitzer & Jarkko Turunen & Melanie Ward, 2006. "How wages change: micro evidence from the International Wage Flexibility Project," Working Papers (Old Series) 0620, Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland.
- William T. Dickens & Lorenz Goette & Erica L. Groshen & Steinar Holden & Julian Messina & Mark E. Schweitzer & Jarkko Turunen & Melanie E. Ward, 2006. "How wages change : micro evidence from the International Wage Flexibility Project," Working Paper Research 96, National Bank of Belgium.
- Jeff Fuhrer & George Moore, 1995.
"Inflation Persistence,"
The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 110(1), pages 127-159.
- Jeffrey C. Fuhrer & George R. Moore, 1993. "Inflation persistence," Proceedings, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, issue Mar.
- Jeffrey C. Fuhrer & George R. Moore, 1993. "Inflation persistence," Proceedings, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
- Jeffrey C. Fuhrer & George R. Moore, 1993. "Inflation persistence," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 93-17, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
- Sophocles N. Brissimis & Nicholas S. Magginas, 2008.
"Inflation Forecasts and the New Keynesian Phillips Curve,"
International Journal of Central Banking, International Journal of Central Banking, vol. 4(2), pages 1-22, June.
- Sophocles N. Brissimis & Nicholas S. Magginas, 2006. "Inflation Forecasts and the New Keynesian Phillips Curve," Working Papers 38, Bank of Greece.
- Laurence Ball & Sandeep Mazumder, 2011.
"Inflation Dynamics and the Great Recession,"
Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 42(1 (Spring), pages 337-405.
- Mr. Sandeep Mazumder & Laurence M. Ball, 2011. "Inflation Dynamics and the Great Recession," IMF Working Papers 2011/121, International Monetary Fund.
- Laurence Ball & Sandeep Mazumder, 2011. "Inflation Dynamics and the Great Recession," Economics Working Paper Archive 580, The Johns Hopkins University,Department of Economics.
- Laurence M. Ball & Sandeep Mazumder, 2011. "Inflation Dynamics and the Great Recession," NBER Working Papers 17044, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Fuhrer, Jeffrey C., 2010.
"Inflation Persistence,"
Handbook of Monetary Economics, in: Benjamin M. Friedman & Michael Woodford (ed.), Handbook of Monetary Economics, edition 1, volume 3, chapter 9, pages 423-486,
Elsevier.
- Jeff Fuhrer & George Moore, 1995. "Inflation Persistence," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 110(1), pages 127-159.
- Jeffrey C. Fuhrer, 2009. "Inflation persistence," Working Papers 09-14, Federal Reserve Bank of Boston.
- Matheson, Troy & Stavrev, Emil, 2013.
"The Great Recession and the inflation puzzle,"
Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 120(3), pages 468-472.
- Mr. Troy D Matheson & Mr. Emil Stavrev, 2013. "The Great Recession and the Inflation Puzzle," IMF Working Papers 2013/124, International Monetary Fund.
- Galí, Jordi & Gertler, Mark, 1999. "Inflation Dynamics: A Structural Economic Analysis," CEPR Discussion Papers 2246, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
- Argia M. Sbordone, 2006.
"U.S. Wage and Price Dynamics: A Limited-Information Approach,"
International Journal of Central Banking, International Journal of Central Banking, vol. 2(3), September.
- Sbordone, Argia M, 2006. "U.S. Wage and Price Dynamics: A Limited-Information Approach," MPRA Paper 811, University Library of Munich, Germany.
- Argia M. Sbordone, 2006. "U.S. wage and price dynamics: a limited information approach," Staff Reports 256, Federal Reserve Bank of New York.
- Christopher A. Sims & Tao Zha, 2006.
"Were There Regime Switches in U.S. Monetary Policy?,"
American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 96(1), pages 54-81, March.
- Christopher A. Sims & Tao Zha, 2004. "Were there regime switches in U.S. monetary policy?," FRB Atlanta Working Paper 2004-14, Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta.
- Christopher A. Sims & Tao Zha, 2005. "Were There Regime Switches in U.S. Monetary Policy?," Working Papers 92, Princeton University, Department of Economics, Center for Economic Policy Studies..
- Gary Koop & Luca Onorante, 2011.
"Estimating Phillips Curves in Turbulent Times using the ECBs Survey of Professional Forecasters,"
Working Papers
1109, University of Strathclyde Business School, Department of Economics.
- Onorante, Luca & Koop, Gary, 2012. "Estimating Phillips curves in turbulent times using the ECB's survey of professional forecasters," Working Paper Series 1422, European Central Bank.
- Markus Kirchner & Jacopo Cimadomo & Sebastian Hauptmeier, 2010.
"Transmission of Government Spending Shocks in the Euro Area: Time Variation and Driving Forces,"
Tinbergen Institute Discussion Papers
10-021/2, Tinbergen Institute.
- Hauptmeier, Sebastian & Cimadomo, Jacopo & Kirchner, Markus, 2010. "Transmission of government spending shocks in the euro area: Time variation and driving forces," Working Paper Series 1219, European Central Bank.
- Mazumder, Sandeep, 2011. "The empirical validity of the New Keynesian Phillips curve using survey forecasts of inflation," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 28(6), pages 2439-2450.
- Lourdes Acedo Montoya & Björn Döhring, 2011. "The improbable renaissance of the Phillips curve: The crisis and euro area inflation dynamics," European Economy - Economic Papers 2008 - 2015 446, Directorate General Economic and Financial Affairs (DG ECFIN), European Commission.
- Hamilton, James D, 1989. "A New Approach to the Economic Analysis of Nonstationary Time Series and the Business Cycle," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 57(2), pages 357-384, March.
- Arellano, Manuel, 2003. "Panel Data Econometrics," OUP Catalogue, Oxford University Press, number 9780199245291.
Most related items
These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.- Víctor López-Pérez, 2017. "Do professional forecasters behave as if they believed in the New Keynesian Phillips Curve for the euro area?," Empirica, Springer;Austrian Institute for Economic Research;Austrian Economic Association, vol. 44(1), pages 147-174, February.
- Sophocles Mavroeidis & Mikkel Plagborg-Møller & James H. Stock, 2014.
"Empirical Evidence on Inflation Expectations in the New Keynesian Phillips Curve,"
Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 52(1), pages 124-188, March.
- Sophocles Mavroeidis & Mikkel Plagborg-Møller & James H. Stock, "undated". "Empirical Evidence on Inflation Expectations in the New Keynesian Phillips Curve," Working Paper 84656, Harvard University OpenScholar.
- Mavroeidis, Sophocles & Plagborg-Moller, Mikkel & Stock, James H., 2014. "Empirical Evidence on Inflation Expectations in the New Keynesian Phillips Curve," Scholarly Articles 22795845, Harvard University Department of Economics.
- Szafranek, Karol, 2017.
"Flattening of the New Keynesian Phillips curve: Evidence for an emerging, small open economy,"
Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 63(C), pages 334-348.
- Karol Szafranek, 2016. "Linking excessive disinflation and output movements in an emerging, small open economy A hybrid New Keynesian Phillips Curve perspective," NBP Working Papers 239, Narodowy Bank Polski.
- Baele, Lieven & Bekaert, Geert & Cho, Seonghoon & Inghelbrecht, Koen & Moreno, Antonio, 2015.
"Macroeconomic regimes,"
Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 70(C), pages 51-71.
- Lieven Baele & Geert Bekaert & Seonghoon Cho & Koen Inghelbrecht & Antonio Moreno, 2011. "Macroeconomic Regimes," NBER Working Papers 17090, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Baele, L.T.M. & Bekaert, G.R.J. & Cho, S. & Inghelbrecht, K. & Moreno, A., 2015. "Macroeconomic regimes," Other publications TiSEM e92a1993-778e-4ce2-b603-6, Tilburg University, School of Economics and Management.
- L. Baele & G. Bekaert & S. Cho & K. Inghelbrecht & A. Moreno, 2013. "Macroeconomic Regimes," Working Papers of Faculty of Economics and Business Administration, Ghent University, Belgium 13/870, Ghent University, Faculty of Economics and Business Administration.
- Lieven Baele & et al., 2012. "Macroeconomic Regimes," Faculty Working Papers 03/12, School of Economics and Business Administration, University of Navarra.
- Seonghoon Cho & Koen Inghelbrecht & Geert Bekaert & Antonio Moreno & Lieven Baele, 2011. "Macroeconomic Regimes," 2011 Meeting Papers 817, Society for Economic Dynamics.
- Choi, Yoonseok & Kim, Sunghyun, 2016. "Testing an alternative price-setting behavior in the new Keynesian Phillips curve: Extrapolative price-setting mechanism," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 44(C), pages 253-265.
- Yhlas SOVBETOV & Muhittin KAPLAN, 2019. "Empirical examination of the stability of expectations – Augmented Phillips Curve for developing and developed countries," Theoretical and Applied Economics, Asociatia Generala a Economistilor din Romania / Editura Economica, vol. 0(2(619), S), pages 63-78, Summer.
- Thórarinn G. Pétursson, 2018. "Disinflation and improved anchoring of long-term inflation expectations - The Icelandic experience," Economics wp77, Department of Economics, Central bank of Iceland.
- Jean Boivin & Marc P. Giannoni, 2006.
"Has Monetary Policy Become More Effective?,"
The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 88(3), pages 445-462, August.
- Jean Boivin & Marc P. Giannoni, 2003. "Has Monetary Policy Become More Effective?," NBER Working Papers 9459, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Giannoni, Marc & Boivin, Jean, 2006. "Has Monetary Policy Become More Effective?," CEPR Discussion Papers 5463, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
- Ferreira, Diego & Palma, Andreza Aparecida, 2015. "Forecasting Inflation with the Phillips Curve: A Dynamic Model Averaging Approach for Brazil," Revista Brasileira de Economia - RBE, EPGE Brazilian School of Economics and Finance - FGV EPGE (Brazil), vol. 69(4), December.
- Oinonen, Sami & Paloviita, Maritta & Vilmi, Lauri, 2013. "How have inflation dynamics changed over time? Evidence from the euro area and USA," Bank of Finland Research Discussion Papers 6/2013, Bank of Finland.
- Richard K. Crump & Stefano Eusepi & Marc Giannoni & Aysegul Sahin, 2019.
"A Unified Approach to Measuring u,"
Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 50(1 (Spring), pages 143-238.
- Giannoni, Marc & Crump, Richard K. & Eusepi, Stefano & Sahin, Aysegul, 2019. "A Unified Approach to Measuring u," CEPR Discussion Papers 13939, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
- Richard K. Crump & Stefano Eusepi & Marc Giannoni & Ayşegül Şahin, 2019. "A unified approach to measuring u," Staff Reports 889, Federal Reserve Bank of New York.
- Richard K. Crump & Stefano Eusepi & Marc Giannoni & Ayşegül Şahin, 2019. "A Unified Approach to Measuring u," NBER Working Papers 25930, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Geraldine Dany-Knedlik & Juan Angel Garcia, 2018.
"Monetary Policy and Inflation Dynamics in ASEAN Economies,"
IMF Working Papers
2018/147, International Monetary Fund.
- Geraldine Dany-Knedlik & Juan Angel Garcia, 2018. "Monetary Policy and Inflation Dynamics in ASEAN Economies," Discussion Papers of DIW Berlin 1755, DIW Berlin, German Institute for Economic Research.
- Driscoll, John C. & Holden, Steinar, 2014.
"Behavioral economics and macroeconomic models,"
Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 41(C), pages 133-147.
- John C. Driscoll & Steinar Holden, 2014. "Behavioral Economics and Macroeconomic Models," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2014-43, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
- John C. Driscoll & Steinar Holden, 2014. "Behavioral Economics and Macroeconomic Models," CESifo Working Paper Series 4785, CESifo.
- Paul Hubert & Harun Mirza, 2019.
"The role of forward‐ and backward‐looking information for inflation expectations formation,"
Journal of Forecasting, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 38(8), pages 733-748, December.
- Paul Hubert & Harun Mirza, 2019. "The role of forward- and backward-looking information for inflation expectations formation," Post-Print hal-03403616, HAL.
- Paul Hubert & Harun Mirza, 2019. "The role of forward- and backward-looking information for inflation expectations formation," SciencePo Working papers Main hal-03403616, HAL.
- Annalisa Cristini & Piero Ferri, 2021. "Nonlinear models of the Phillips curve," Journal of Evolutionary Economics, Springer, vol. 31(4), pages 1129-1155, September.
- Baxa Jaromír & Plašil Miroslav & Vašíček Bořek, 2017.
"Inflation and the steeplechase between economic activity variables: evidence for G7 countries,"
The B.E. Journal of Macroeconomics, De Gruyter, vol. 17(1), pages 1-42, January.
- Jaromir Baxa & Miroslav Plasil & Borek Vasicek, 2013. "Inflation and the Steeplechase Between Economic Activity Variables," Working Papers 2013/15, Czech National Bank.
- Choi, Yoonseok, 2021. "Inflation dynamics, the role of inflation at different horizons and inflation uncertainty," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 71(C), pages 649-662.
- Kim Chang-Jin & Kim Yunmi, 2008. "Is the Backward-Looking Component Important in a New Keynesian Phillips Curve?," Studies in Nonlinear Dynamics & Econometrics, De Gruyter, vol. 12(3), pages 1-20, September.
- Emi Nakamura, 2009. "Deconstructing The Success Of Real Business Cycles," Economic Inquiry, Western Economic Association International, vol. 47(4), pages 739-753, October.
- C.S. Bos & S.J. Koopman & M. Ooms, 2007.
"Long Memory Modelling of Inflation with Stochastic Variance and Structural Breaks,"
Tinbergen Institute Discussion Papers
07-099/4, Tinbergen Institute.
- Charles S. Bos & Siem Jan Koopman & Marius Ooms, 2007. "Long memory modelling of inflation with stochastic variance and structural breaks," CREATES Research Papers 2007-44, Department of Economics and Business Economics, Aarhus University.
More about this item
Keywords
downward wage rigidities; inflation; new Keynesian Phillips curve; Panel data; survey of professional forecasters; unemployment;All these keywords.
JEL classification:
- E31 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Price Level; Inflation; Deflation
- J30 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Wages, Compensation, and Labor Costs - - - General
NEP fields
This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:- NEP-EEC-2015-06-05 (European Economics)
Statistics
Access and download statisticsCorrections
All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:ecb:ecbwps:20151763. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.
If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.
If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .
If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Official Publications (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/emieude.html .
Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.