IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/ecb/ecbwps/20131591.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Sudden stop of capital flows and the consequences for the banking sector and the real economy

Author

Listed:
  • Neagu, Florian
  • Mihai, Irina

Abstract

The paper develops a macro-prudential liquidity stress-testing tool in order to capture the possible consequences of a capital outflow (including a run of deposits). The tool includes a feedback from the banking sector to the real economy, incorporates a link between liquidity risk and solvency risk, and is tailored for emerging market features. The stress-testing tool aims to: (i) test the capacity of the banking sector to withstand the sudden stop of capital flows, and to gauge the consequences of the liquidity stress to the solvency ratio; (ii) quantify the liquidity deficit that a central bank should accommodate; (iii) assess the impact on credit supply when the sudden stop occurs; and (iv) support the implementation of an orderly disintermediation process. The macro-prudential tool is applied on the Romanian banking sector. JEL Classification: G21, F32

Suggested Citation

  • Neagu, Florian & Mihai, Irina, 2013. "Sudden stop of capital flows and the consequences for the banking sector and the real economy," Working Paper Series 1591, European Central Bank.
  • Handle: RePEc:ecb:ecbwps:20131591
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://www.ecb.europa.eu//pub/pdf/scpwps/ecbwp1591.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Anand, Kartik & Gai, Prasanna & Kapadia, Sujit & Brennan, Simon & Willison, Matthew, 2013. "A network model of financial system resilience," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 85(C), pages 219-235.
    2. Costeiu, Adrian & Neagu, Florian, 2013. "Bridging the banking sector with the real economy: a financial stability perspective," Working Paper Series 1592, European Central Bank.
    3. Franklin Allen & Douglas Gale, 2000. "Financial Contagion," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 108(1), pages 1-33, February.
    4. Douglas W. Diamond & Philip H. Dybvig, 2000. "Bank runs, deposit insurance, and liquidity," Quarterly Review, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis, vol. 24(Win), pages 14-23.
    5. Mr. Fabian Valencia & Mr. Luc Laeven, 2008. "Systemic Banking Crises: A New Database," IMF Working Papers 2008/224, International Monetary Fund.
    6. Miss Liliana B Schumacher & Mr. Theodore M. Barnhill, 2011. "Modeling Correlated Systemic Liquidity and Solvency Risks in a Financial Environment with Incomplete Information," IMF Working Papers 2011/263, International Monetary Fund.
    7. Mr. Claus Puhr & Mr. Andre O Santos & Mr. Christian Schmieder & Salih N. Neftci & Mr. Benjamin Neudorfer & Mr. Stefan W. Schmitz & Mr. Heiko Hesse, 2012. "Next Generation System-Wide Liquidity Stress Testing," IMF Working Papers 2012/003, International Monetary Fund.
    8. Jan Willem van den End, 2012. "Liquidity stress-tester: do Basel III and unconventional monetary policy work?," Applied Financial Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 22(15), pages 1233-1257, August.
    9. Viral V. Acharya & S. Viswanathan, 2011. "Leverage, Moral Hazard, and Liquidity," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 66(1), pages 99-138, February.
    10. Mistrulli, Paolo Emilio, 2011. "Assessing financial contagion in the interbank market: Maximum entropy versus observed interbank lending patterns," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 35(5), pages 1114-1127, May.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Konstantin Makrelov & Rob Davies & Laurence Harris, 2021. "The impact of capital flow reversal shocks in South Africa: a stock- and-flow-consistent analysis," International Review of Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 35(3-4), pages 475-501, July.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Fathin Faizah Said, 2017. "Global Banking on the Financial Network Modelling: Sectorial Analysis," Computational Economics, Springer;Society for Computational Economics, vol. 49(2), pages 227-253, February.
    2. Cappelletti, Giuseppe & Mistrulli, Paolo Emilio, 2023. "The role of credit lines and multiple lending in financial contagion and systemic events," Journal of Financial Stability, Elsevier, vol. 67(C).
    3. Ebrahimi Kahou, Mahdi & Lehar, Alfred, 2017. "Macroprudential policy: A review," Journal of Financial Stability, Elsevier, vol. 29(C), pages 92-105.
    4. Michele Manna & Carmela Iazzetta, 2009. "The topology of the interbank market: developments in Italy since 1990," Temi di discussione (Economic working papers) 711, Bank of Italy, Economic Research and International Relations Area.
    5. Battiston, Stefano & Delli Gatti, Domenico & Gallegati, Mauro & Greenwald, Bruce & Stiglitz, Joseph E., 2012. "Liaisons dangereuses: Increasing connectivity, risk sharing, and systemic risk," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 36(8), pages 1121-1141.
    6. Brunnermeier, Markus K. & Oehmke, Martin, 2013. "Bubbles, Financial Crises, and Systemic Risk," Handbook of the Economics of Finance, in: G.M. Constantinides & M. Harris & R. M. Stulz (ed.), Handbook of the Economics of Finance, volume 2, chapter 0, pages 1221-1288, Elsevier.
    7. Paul Glasserman & Peyton Young, 2015. "Contagion in Financial Networks," Economics Series Working Papers 764, University of Oxford, Department of Economics.
    8. Hasman, Augusto & Samartín, Margarita, 2023. "Government intervention, linkages and financial fragility," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 126(C).
    9. Silva, Walmir & Kimura, Herbert & Sobreiro, Vinicius Amorim, 2017. "An analysis of the literature on systemic financial risk: A survey," Journal of Financial Stability, Elsevier, vol. 28(C), pages 91-114.
    10. Alan Morrison & Michalis Vasios & Mungo Wilson & Filip Zikes, 2017. "Identifying Contagion in a Banking Network," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2017-082, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    11. Spiros Bougheas & Alan Kirman, 2015. "Complex Financial Networks and Systemic Risk: A Review," Dynamic Modeling and Econometrics in Economics and Finance, in: Pasquale Commendatore & Saime Kayam & Ingrid Kubin (ed.), Complexity and Geographical Economics, edition 127, pages 115-139, Springer.
    12. Paltalidis, Nikos & Gounopoulos, Dimitrios & Kizys, Renatas & Koutelidakis, Yiannis, 2015. "Transmission channels of systemic risk and contagion in the European financial network," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 61(S1), pages 36-52.
    13. du Plessis, Emile, 2022. "Multinomial modeling methods: Predicting four decades of international banking crises," Economic Systems, Elsevier, vol. 46(2).
    14. Gerardo Ferrara & Sam Langfield & Zijun Liu & Tomohiro Ota, 2019. "Systemic illiquidity in the interbank network," Quantitative Finance, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 19(11), pages 1779-1795, November.
    15. Thiago Christiano Silva & Marcos Soares da Silva & Benjamin Miranda Tabak, 2015. "Liquidity Performance Evaluation of the Brazilian Interbank Market using a Network-Based Approach," Working Papers Series 401, Central Bank of Brazil, Research Department.
    16. Hüser, Anne-Caroline, 2016. "Too interconnected to fail: A survey of the Interbank Networks literature," SAFE Working Paper Series 91, Leibniz Institute for Financial Research SAFE, revised 2016.
    17. Aikman, David & Beale, Daniel & Brinley-Codd, Adam & Covi, Giovanni & Hüser, Anne‑Caroline & Lepore, Caterina, 2023. "Macroprudential stress‑test models: a survey," Bank of England working papers 1037, Bank of England.
    18. Augusto Hasman, 2013. "A Critical Review Of Contagion Risk In Banking," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 27(5), pages 978-995, December.
    19. Hamdaoui, Mekki, 2016. "Are systemic banking crises in developed and developing countries predictable?," Journal of Multinational Financial Management, Elsevier, vol. 37, pages 114-138.
    20. Bucci, Alberto & La Torre, Davide & Liuzzi, Danilo & Marsiglio, Simone, 2019. "Financial contagion and economic development: An epidemiological approach," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 162(C), pages 211-228.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    banks; emerging markets; macro-prudential tool; stress-testing; systemic liquidity;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • G21 - Financial Economics - - Financial Institutions and Services - - - Banks; Other Depository Institutions; Micro Finance Institutions; Mortgages
    • F32 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Current Account Adjustment; Short-term Capital Movements

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:ecb:ecbwps:20131591. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Official Publications (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/emieude.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.