IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/ecb/ecbwps/20121468.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Modelling the time varying determinants of portfolio flows to emerging markets

Author

Listed:
  • Lo Duca, Marco

Abstract

This paper studies how the drivers of portfolio flows change across periods with a model where regression coefficients endogenously change over time in a continuous fashion. The empirical analysis of daily equity portfolio flows to emerging markets shows that the regression coefficients display substantial time variation. Major changes in the importance of the drivers of the flows coincide with important market events/shocks. Overall, investors pay more attention to regional developments in emerging markets in periods when market tensions are elevated. However, extreme tensions generate panics, i.e. periods when changes in uncertainty and risk aversion drive flows, while regional developments play only a marginal role. JEL Classification: F32, F34, G01, G11

Suggested Citation

  • Lo Duca, Marco, 2012. "Modelling the time varying determinants of portfolio flows to emerging markets," Working Paper Series 1468, European Central Bank.
    • Handle: RePEc:ecb:ecbwps:20121468
    Note: 452517
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://www.ecb.europa.eu//pub/pdf/scpwps/ecbwp1468.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Ben S. Bernanke & Kenneth N. Kuttner, 2005. "What Explains the Stock Market's Reaction to Federal Reserve Policy?," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 60(3), pages 1221-1257, June.
    2. Chuhan, Punam & Claessens, Stijn & Mamingi, Nlandu, 1998. "Equity and bond flows to Latin America and Asia: the role of global and country factors," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 55(2), pages 439-463, April.
    3. Kuttner, Kenneth N., 2001. "Monetary policy surprises and interest rates: Evidence from the Fed funds futures market," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 47(3), pages 523-544, June.
    4. Ashoka Mody & Mark P. Taylor, 2013. "International capital crunches: the time-varying role of informational asymmetries," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 45(20), pages 2961-2973, July.
    5. Maurice Obstfeld, 2009. "International Finance and Growth in Developing Countries: What Have We Learned?," IMF Staff Papers, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 56(1), pages 63-111, April.
    6. Bekaert, Geert & Hoerova, Marie & Lo Duca, Marco, 2013. "Risk, uncertainty and monetary policy," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 60(7), pages 771-788.
    7. Felices, Guillermo & Orskaug, Bjorn-Erik, 2008. "Estimating the determinants of capital flows to emerging market economies: a maximum likelihood disequilibrium approach," Bank of England working papers 354, Bank of England.
    8. Jonathan David Ostry & Atish R. Ghosh & Karl F Habermeier & Marcos d Chamon & Mahvash S Qureshi & Dennis B. S. Reinhardt, 2010. "Capital Inflows; The Role of Controls," IMF Staff Position Notes 2010/04, International Monetary Fund.
    9. Fratzscher, Marcel, 2012. "Capital flows, push versus pull factors and the global financial crisis," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 88(2), pages 341-356.
    10. Jonathan D. Ostry, 2012. "Managing Capital Flows: What Tools to Use?," Asian Development Review (ADR), World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd., vol. 29(01), pages 82-88, June.
    11. Maurice Obstfeld, 2009. "International Finance and Growth in Developing Countries: What Have We Learned?," NBER Working Papers 14691, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    12. Forbes, Kristin J. & Warnock, Francis E., 2012. "Capital flow waves: Surges, stops, flight, and retrenchment," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 88(2), pages 235-251.
    13. Refet S Gürkaynak & Brian Sack & Eric Swanson, 2005. "Do Actions Speak Louder Than Words? The Response of Asset Prices to Monetary Policy Actions and Statements," International Journal of Central Banking, International Journal of Central Banking, vol. 1(1), May.
    14. Mr. Marcos d Chamon & Miss Mahvash S Qureshi & Dennis B. S. Reinhardt & Mr. Atish R. Ghosh & Mr. Karl F Habermeier & Mr. Jonathan David Ostry, 2010. "Capital Inflows: The Role of Controls," IMF Staff Position Notes 2010/004, International Monetary Fund.
    15. Tobias Adrian & Hyun Song Shin, 2010. "The Changing Nature of Financial Intermediation and the Financial Crisis of 2007–2009," Annual Review of Economics, Annual Reviews, vol. 2(1), pages 603-618, September.
    16. Barry Eichengreen & Ashoka Mody, 1998. "Interest Rates in the North and Capital Flows to the South: Is There a Missing Link?," International Finance, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 1(1), pages 35-57, October.
    17. Stiglitz, Joseph E & Weiss, Andrew, 1981. "Credit Rationing in Markets with Imperfect Information," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 71(3), pages 393-410, June.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Bruno, Valentina & Shim, Ilhyock & Shin, Hyun Song, 2017. "Comparative assessment of macroprudential policies," Journal of Financial Stability, Elsevier, vol. 28(C), pages 183-202.
    2. Monica Singhania & Neha Saini, 2018. "Determinants of FPI in Developed and Developing Countries," Global Business Review, International Management Institute, vol. 19(1), pages 187-213, February.
    3. Mrs. Swarnali A Hannan, 2018. "Revisiting the Determinants of Capital Flows to Emerging Markets--A Survey of the Evolving Literature," IMF Working Papers 2018/214, International Monetary Fund.
    4. Kiendrebeogo, Youssouf, 2016. "Unconventional monetary policy and capital flows," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 54(C), pages 412-424.
    5. Marcel Fratzscher, 2014. "Capital Controls and Foreign Exchange Policy," Central Banking, Analysis, and Economic Policies Book Series, in: Miguel Fuentes D. & Claudio E. Raddatz & Carmen M. Reinhart (ed.),Capital Mobility and Monetary Policy, edition 1, volume 18, chapter 7, pages 205-253, Central Bank of Chile.
    6. Forbes, Kristin & Fratzscher, Marcel & Kostka, Thomas & Straub, Roland, 2016. "Bubble thy neighbour: Portfolio effects and externalities from capital controls," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 99(C), pages 85-104.
    7. Fischer, Andreas M. & Greminger, Rafael P. & Grisse, Christian & Kaufmann, Sylvia, 2021. "Portfolio rebalancing in times of stress," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 113(C).
    8. Peter Montiel, 2014. "Capital Flows: Issues and Policies," Open Economies Review, Springer, vol. 25(3), pages 595-633, July.
    9. Tamim Bayoumi & Giovanni Dell'Ariccia & Karl F Habermeier & Tommaso Mancini Griffoli & Fabian Valencia, 2014. "Monetary Policy in the New Normal," IMF Staff Discussion Notes 14/3, International Monetary Fund.
    10. Rey, Hélène, 2015. "Dilemma not Trilemma: The Global Financial Cycle and Monetary Policy Independence," CEPR Discussion Papers 10591, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    11. Scott Davis, J. & Zlate, Andrei, 2019. "Monetary policy divergence and net capital flows: Accounting for endogenous policy responses," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 94(C), pages 15-31.
    12. Mercado, Rogelio V., 2019. "Capital flow transitions: Domestic factors and episodes of gross capital inflows," Emerging Markets Review, Elsevier, vol. 38(C), pages 251-264.
    13. Lo Duca, Marco & Nicoletti, Giulio & Vidal Martínez, Ariadna, 2016. "Global corporate bond issuance: What role for US quantitative easing?," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 60(C), pages 114-150.
    14. Cesar Rodrigues van der Laan & André Moreira Cunha & Tiago Wickstrom Alves, 2010. "External financial liberalization and growth in emerging countries: a panel data estimation using a new index (1990-2004)," Journal of Post Keynesian Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 33(2), pages 307-332, January.
    15. Philip R. Lane, 2013. "Cross-Border Financial Integration in Asia and the Macro-Financial Policy Framework," World Economics, World Economics, 1 Ivory Square, Plantation Wharf, London, United Kingdom, SW11 3UE, vol. 14(2), pages 37-52, April.
    16. Mr. John C Bluedorn & Rupa Duttagupta & Mr. Jaime Guajardo & Petia Topalova, 2013. "Capital Flows are Fickle: Anytime, Anywhere," IMF Working Papers 2013/183, International Monetary Fund.
    17. Bank for International Settlements, 2021. "Changing patterns of capital flows," CGFS Papers, Bank for International Settlements, number 66, december.
    18. Ghosh, Atish R. & Ostry, Jonathan D. & Qureshi, Mahvash S., 2018. "Taming the Tide of Capital Flows: A Policy Guide," MIT Press Books, The MIT Press, edition 1, volume 1, number 0262037165, April.
    19. Mr. Jiaqian Chen & Mr. Tommaso Mancini-Griffoli & Ms. Ratna Sahay, 2014. "Spillovers from United States Monetary Policy on Emerging Markets: Different This Time?," IMF Working Papers 2014/240, International Monetary Fund.
    20. Fuertes, Ana-Maria & Phylaktis, Kate & Yan, Cheng, 2016. "Hot money in bank credit flows to emerging markets during the banking globalization era," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 60(C), pages 29-52.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    capital flows; emerging markets; financial crisis; pull factors; push factors;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • F32 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Current Account Adjustment; Short-term Capital Movements
    • F34 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - International Lending and Debt Problems
    • G01 - Financial Economics - - General - - - Financial Crises
    • G11 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Portfolio Choice; Investment Decisions

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:ecb:ecbwps:20121468. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Official Publications (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/emieude.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.