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Nelson-Siegel, affine and quadratic yield curve specifications: which one is better at forecasting?

Author

Listed:
  • Nyholm, Ken
  • Vidova-Koleva, Rositsa

Abstract

In this paper we compare the in-sample fit and out-of-sample forecasting performance of no-arbitrage quadratic and essentially affine term structure models, as well as the dynamic Nelson-Siegel model. In total eleven model variants are evaluated, comprising five quadratic, four affine and two Nelson-Siegel models. Recursive re-estimation and out-of-sample one-, six- and twelve-months ahead forecasts are generated and evaluated using monthly US data for yields observed at maturities of 1, 6, 12, 24, 60 and 120 months. Our results indicate that quadratic models provide the best in-sample fit, while the best out-of-sample performance is generated by three-factor affine models and the dynamic Nelson-Siegel model variants. However, statistical tests fail to identify one single-best forecasting model class. JEL Classification: C14, C15, G12

Suggested Citation

  • Nyholm, Ken & Vidova-Koleva, Rositsa, 2010. "Nelson-Siegel, affine and quadratic yield curve specifications: which one is better at forecasting?," Working Paper Series 1205, European Central Bank.
    • Handle: RePEc:ecb:ecbwps:20101205
    Note: 120728
    as

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    File URL: https://www.ecb.europa.eu//pub/pdf/scpwps/ecbwp1205.pdf
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Kentaro Kikuchi, 2012. "Design and Estimation of a Quadratic Term Structure Model with a Mixture of Normal Distributions," IMES Discussion Paper Series 12-E-08, Institute for Monetary and Economic Studies, Bank of Japan.
    2. Polychronis Manousopoulos & Michalis Michalopoulos, 2015. "Term structure of interest rates estimation using rational Chebyshev functions," Decisions in Economics and Finance, Springer;Associazione per la Matematica, vol. 38(2), pages 119-146, October.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    affine term structure models; forecast performance; Nelson-Siegel model; quadratic yield curve models;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C14 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General - - - Semiparametric and Nonparametric Methods: General
    • C15 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General - - - Statistical Simulation Methods: General
    • G12 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Asset Pricing; Trading Volume; Bond Interest Rates

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