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Testing the asset pricing model of exchange rates with survey data

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  • Naszodi, Anna

Abstract

This paper proposes a new test for the asset pricing model of the exchange rate. It examines whether the way market analysts generate their forecasts is closer to the one implied by the asset pricing model, or to any of those implied by some alternative models. The asset pricing model is supported by the test since it has significantly better out-of-sample fit on survey data than simpler models including the random walk. The traditional test based on forecasting ability is applied as well. The asset pricing model proves to have better forecast accuracy in case of some exchange rates and forecast horizons than the random walk. JEL Classification: F31, F36, G13

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  • Naszodi, Anna, 2010. "Testing the asset pricing model of exchange rates with survey data," Working Paper Series 1200, European Central Bank.
    • Handle: RePEc:ecb:ecbwps:20101200
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    Cited by:

    1. Hsing, Yu, 2016. "Comparison of the Fundamental and Monetary Models of the Determinants of the Argentine Peso/US Dollar Exchange Rate," Economia Internazionale / International Economics, Camera di Commercio Industria Artigianato Agricoltura di Genova, vol. 69(4), pages 379-388.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    asset pricing exchange rate model; present value model of exchange rate; survey data;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • F31 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Foreign Exchange
    • F36 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Financial Aspects of Economic Integration
    • G13 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Contingent Pricing; Futures Pricing

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