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Exchange Rate Dynamics and Currency Unification: The Ostmark-DM Rate

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  • Burda, Michael
  • Gerlach, Stefan

Abstract

This paper estimates a simple model of the exchange rate between the East and West German Mark immediately preceding German monetary union. Although there is a theoretical literature on exchange rate dynamics when the introduction of a fixed exchange rate is anticipated, the absence of data has limited empirical work on the subject. We show that in the first part of the sample, the DM-Ostmark exchange rate behaves as a random walk. In the second half, when monetary union appeared more likely, the exchange rate behaves as a weighted average of fundamentals and the expected "terminal" exchange rate.

Suggested Citation

  • Burda, Michael & Gerlach, Stefan, 1993. "Exchange Rate Dynamics and Currency Unification: The Ostmark-DM Rate," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 18(3), pages 417-429.
    • Handle: RePEc:spr:empeco:v:18:y:1993:i:3:p:417-29
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    Cited by:

    1. Hans Dewachter & Dirk Veestraeten, 2001. "Measuring convergence speed of asset prices toward a pre-announced target," Applied Financial Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 11(6), pages 591-601.
    2. Frait, Jan & Komarek, Lubos & Melecky, Martin, 2006. "The Real Exchange Rate Misalignment in the Five Central European Countries," Economic Research Papers 269632, University of Warwick - Department of Economics.
    3. Bronka Rzepkowski, 1997. "Impact de l'annonce de la modalité de fixation des taux de conversion des monnaies européennes," Économie et Prévision, Programme National Persée, vol. 128(2), pages 145-159.
    4. Naszodi, Anna, 2010. "Testing the asset pricing model of exchange rates with survey data," Working Paper Series 1200, European Central Bank.

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