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What drives EU banks' stock returns? Bank-level evidence using the dynamic dividend-discount model

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Listed:
  • Castrén, Olli
  • Fitzpatrick, Trevor
  • Sydow, Matthias

Abstract

We combine the dynamic dividend-discount model with an accounting-based vector autoregression framework that allows for a decomposition of EU banks' stock returns to cash-flow and expected return news components. The main findings are that while the bulk of the variability of EU banks' stock returns is due to cash flow shocks, the expected return shocks are relatively more important for larger than for smaller banks. Moroever, variables used in the literature as cash-flow proxies explain a higher share of the cash-flow component of the total excess returns for smaller than for larger EU banks. This suggests that large banks could be more prone to market wide news and events - that in the literature are associated with the expected return news component - as opposed to the bank-specific news, typically assumed to be incorporated in the cash-flow component. JEL Classification: C33, G12, G21

Suggested Citation

  • Castrén, Olli & Fitzpatrick, Trevor & Sydow, Matthias, 2006. "What drives EU banks' stock returns? Bank-level evidence using the dynamic dividend-discount model," Working Paper Series 677, European Central Bank.
    • Handle: RePEc:ecb:ecbwps:2006677
    Note: 416889
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Cited by:

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    2. Gibson, Heather D. & Hall, Stephen G. & Tavlas, George S., 2016. "How the euro-area sovereign-debt crisis led to a collapse in bank equity prices," Journal of Financial Stability, Elsevier, vol. 26(C), pages 266-275.
    3. Kakhkharov, Jakhongir & Bianchi, Robert J., 2022. "COVID-19 and policy responses: Early evidence in banks and FinTech stocks," Pacific-Basin Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 74(C).
    4. Ricci, Ornella, 2015. "The impact of monetary policy announcements on the stock price of large European banks during the financial crisis," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 52(C), pages 245-255.
    5. Schnatz, Bernd, 2006. "Is reversion to PPP in euro exchange rates non-linear?," Working Paper Series 682, European Central Bank.
    6. Marie Ligocka, 2019. "The E?ect of Financial Ratios on the Stock Prices: Evidence from the Polish Stock Exchange," ACTA VSFS, University of Finance and Administration, vol. 13(1), pages 44-60.
    7. Salvatore Perdichizzi, 2017. "The impact of ECBs conventional and unconventional monetary policies on European banking indexes returns," DISCE - Working Papers del Dipartimento di Economia e Finanza def059, Università Cattolica del Sacro Cuore, Dipartimenti e Istituti di Scienze Economiche (DISCE).
    8. Hiebert, Paul & Sydow, Matthias, 2009. "What drives returns to euro area housing? Evidence from a dynamic dividend-discount model," Working Paper Series 1019, European Central Bank.
    9. Antonio Sánchez Serrano, 2018. "EU banks after the crisis: sinners in the hands of angry markets," Journal of Banking and Financial Economics, University of Warsaw, Faculty of Management, vol. 1(9), pages 24-51, May.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Bank stock return predictability; cash flow news.; panel VAR estimation; return decomposition;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C33 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Models with Panel Data; Spatio-temporal Models
    • G12 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Asset Pricing; Trading Volume; Bond Interest Rates
    • G21 - Financial Economics - - Financial Institutions and Services - - - Banks; Other Depository Institutions; Micro Finance Institutions; Mortgages

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