IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/ecb/ecbwps/2005459.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Capital flows and the US "New Economy": consumption smoothing and risk exposure

Author

Listed:
  • Miller, Marcus
  • Castrén, Olli
  • Zhang, Lei

Abstract

In an analytically tractable model of the global economy, we calculate the Pareto improvement where a country experiencing a favourable supply side shock consumes more against expected future output and spreads the risk by selling shares. With capital inflows to finance the"New Economy" significantly exceeding the current account deficit, however, we show that selling shares globally at inflated prices - due to "irrational exuberance" and distorted corporate incentives - can generate significant international transfers when the asset bubble bursts. The analysis complements recent econometric studies which appeal to financial factors to explain why the European economy was so strongly affected by the recent US downturn. JEL Classification: F41, F32, G15

Suggested Citation

  • Miller, Marcus & Castrén, Olli & Zhang, Lei, 2005. "Capital flows and the US "New Economy": consumption smoothing and risk exposure," Working Paper Series 459, European Central Bank.
    • Handle: RePEc:ecb:ecbwps:2005459
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://www.ecb.europa.eu//pub/pdf/scpwps/ecbwp459.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Ana Beatriz Galvão & Michael Artis & Massimiliano Marcellino, 2007. "The transmission mechanism in a changing world," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 22(1), pages 39-61.
    2. Miller, Marcus & Stiegert, Roger & Castrén, Olli, 2003. "Growth expectations, capital flows and international risk sharing," Working Paper Series 237, European Central Bank.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Marcus Miller & Lei Zhang, 2006. "Capital Flows, Interest Rates and Precautionary Behaviour: a model of "global imbalances"," WEF Working Papers 0014, ESRC World Economy and Finance Research Programme, Birkbeck, University of London.
    2. Miller, Marcus & Zhang, Lei, 2007. "Fear and Market Failure: Global Imbalances and ¿Self-Insurance¿," IDB Publications (Working Papers) 1606, Inter-American Development Bank.
    3. Miller, Marcus, 2006. "Fear and Market Failure: Global Imbalances and 'Self-insurance'," CEPR Discussion Papers 6000, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    4. Marcus Miller & Lei Zhang, 2007. "Fear and Market Failure: Global Imbalances and ¿Self-Insurance¿," IDB Publications (Working Papers) 6731, Inter-American Development Bank.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Marcus Miller & Olli Castrén & Lei Zhang, 2007. "'Irrational exuberance' and capital flows for the US New Economy: a simple global model," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 12(1), pages 89-105.
    2. Miller, Marcus, 2005. "World Finance and the US 'New Economy': Risk Sharing and Risk Exposure," CEPR Discussion Papers 4855, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    3. Aslanidis, Nektarios & Christiansen, Charlotte, 2012. "Smooth transition patterns in the realized stock–bond correlation," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 19(4), pages 454-464.
    4. Marco Dueñas & Giorgio Fagiolo, 2013. "Modeling the International-Trade Network: a gravity approach," Journal of Economic Interaction and Coordination, Springer;Society for Economic Science with Heterogeneous Interacting Agents, vol. 8(1), pages 155-178, April.
    5. Ageliki Anagnostou & Ioannis Panteladis & Maria Tsiapa, 2015. "Disentangling different patterns of business cycle synchronicity in the EU regions," Empirica, Springer;Austrian Institute for Economic Research;Austrian Economic Association, vol. 42(3), pages 615-641, August.
    6. Kamil Yilmaz, 2009. "International Business Cycle Spillovers," Koç University-TUSIAD Economic Research Forum Working Papers 0903, Koc University-TUSIAD Economic Research Forum, revised Nov 2009.
    7. Mastromarco Camilla & Laura Serlenga & Yongcheol Shin, 2013. "Globalisation and technological convergence in the EU," Journal of Productivity Analysis, Springer, vol. 40(1), pages 15-29, August.
    8. Pär Stockhammar & Pär Österholm, 2017. "The Impact of US Uncertainty Shocks on Small Open Economies," Open Economies Review, Springer, vol. 28(2), pages 347-368, April.
    9. Michaelides, Panayotis G. & Papageorgiou, Theofanis, 2012. "On the transmission of economic fluctuations from the USA to EU-15 (1960–2011)," Journal of Economics and Business, Elsevier, vol. 64(6), pages 427-438.
    10. Jiang, Chun & Li, Xiao-Lin & Chang, Hsu-Ling & Su, Chi-Wei, 2013. "Uncovered interest parity and risk premium convergence in Central and Eastern European countries," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 33(C), pages 204-208.
    11. Angela Abbate & Sandra Eickmeier & Wolfgang Lemke & Massimiliano Marcellino, 2016. "The Changing International Transmission of Financial Shocks: Evidence from a Classical Time‐Varying FAVAR," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 48(4), pages 573-601, June.
    12. Barrett, Alan & Bergin, Adele & FitzGerald, John & Traistaru-Siedschlag, Iulia, 2006. "Economic Assessment of the Euro Area: Forecasts and Policy Analysis, Autumn Report 2006," Research Series, Economic and Social Research Institute (ESRI), number sustat22.
    13. Pär Stockhammar & Pär Österholm, 2016. "Effects of US policy uncertainty on Swedish GDP growth," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 50(2), pages 443-462, March.
    14. Calza Alessandro & Sousa João, 2006. "Output and Inflation Responses to Credit Shocks: Are There Threshold Effects in the Euro Area?," Studies in Nonlinear Dynamics & Econometrics, De Gruyter, vol. 10(2), pages 1-21, May.
    15. Metiu, Norbert & Hilberg, Björn & Grill, Michael, 2016. "Credit constraints and the international propagation of US financial shocks," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 72(C), pages 67-80.
    16. repec:cnb:ocpubv:as08 is not listed on IDEAS
    17. Martin Schneider & Gerhard Fenz, 2011. "Transmission of business cycle shocks between the US and the euro area," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 43(21), pages 2777-2793.
    18. Dungey, Mardi & Fry, Renee & Martin, Vance L., 2004. "Identification of common and idiosyncratic shocks in real equity prices: Australia, 1982-2002," Global Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 15(1), pages 81-102.
    19. Galvão, Ana Beatriz C., 2003. "Multivariate Threshold Models: TVARs and TVECMs," Brazilian Review of Econometrics, Sociedade Brasileira de Econometria - SBE, vol. 23(1), May.
    20. Metiu, Norbert & Hilberg, Björn & Grill, Michael, 2015. "Financial frictions and global spillovers," Discussion Papers 04/2015, Deutsche Bundesbank.
    21. Eickmeier, Sandra, 2005. "Common stationary and non-stationary factors in the euro area analyzed in a large-scale factor model," Discussion Paper Series 1: Economic Studies 2005,02, Deutsche Bundesbank.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    capital flows; international transmission of shocks; moral hazard;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • F41 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - Open Economy Macroeconomics
    • F32 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Current Account Adjustment; Short-term Capital Movements
    • G15 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - International Financial Markets

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:ecb:ecbwps:2005459. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Official Publications (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/emieude.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.