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Fiscal rules and sustainability of public finances in an endogenous growth model

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  • Giammarioli, Nicola
  • Annicchiarico, Barbara

Abstract

This paper presents a two period overlapping generations model with endogenous growth in the presence of a public sector with objectives of convergence for public debt and primary balance to GDP ratios. In order to ensure the existence of converging paths towards the target values of fiscal variables, we introduce a simple fiscal policy rule. According to this rule, the primary balance ratio is adjusted in function of the distance between the current and the target levels of the public debt and the primary surplus to GDP ratios. It is shown that the fiscal rule displaying time invariant parameters may produce non linear dynamic processes of adjustment of the fiscal ratios as well as endogenous fluctuations in the rate of growth of the economy. In addition the transitional process towards fiscal targets critically depends on the adjustment tool chosen by the fiscal authorities to implement the rule. JEL Classification: H63, H62, O41

Suggested Citation

  • Giammarioli, Nicola & Annicchiarico, Barbara, 2004. "Fiscal rules and sustainability of public finances in an endogenous growth model," Working Paper Series 381, European Central Bank.
    • Handle: RePEc:ecb:ecbwps:2004381
    Note: 98954
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Cited by:

    1. Pierre Richard Agénor & Devrim Yilmaz, 2006. "The Tyranny of Rules: Fiscal Discipline, Productive Spending, and Growth," Economics Discussion Paper Series 0616, Economics, The University of Manchester.
    2. Moraga, Jesús Fernández-Huertas & Vidal, Jean-Pierre, 2010. "Fiscal sustainability and public debt in an endogenous growth model," Journal of Pension Economics and Finance, Cambridge University Press, vol. 9(2), pages 277-302, April.
    3. Mariusz Jarmuzek, 2005. "Are the EU new member states fiscally sustainable? An empirical analysis," UCL SSEES Economics and Business working paper series 51, UCL School of Slavonic and East European Studies (SSEES).
    4. Martin Stepanek, 2017. "Pension Reforms and Adverse Demographics: The Case of the Czech Republic," Working Papers IES 2017/15, Charles University Prague, Faculty of Social Sciences, Institute of Economic Studies, revised Aug 2017.
    5. Evan Lau & Ahmad Zubaidi Baharumshah, 2005. "Assessing The Mean Reversion Behavior Of Fiscal Policy: The Case Of Asian Countries," Macroeconomics 0504002, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    6. Rafal Benecki & Jens Hölscher & Mariusz Jarmuzek, 2006. "Fiscal transparency and policy rules in Poland," UCL SSEES Economics and Business working paper series 65, UCL School of Slavonic and East European Studies (SSEES).
    7. Pierre-Richard Agenor & S. Devrim Yilmaz, 2011. "The tyranny of rules: fiscal discipline, productive spending, and growth in a perfect foresight model," Journal of Economic Policy Reform, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 14(1), pages 69-99.
    8. Paolo Biraschi, "undated". "Searching for the optimal EMU fiscal rule:an ex-post analysis of the SGP reform proposals," Working Papers wp2008-7, Department of the Treasury, Ministry of the Economy and of Finance.
    9. N. Bilkic & B. Carreras Painter & T. Gries, 2013. "Unsustainable sovereign debt—is the Euro crisis only the tip of the iceberg?," International Economics and Economic Policy, Springer, vol. 10(1), pages 1-45, March.
    10. Pierre-Richard Agénor & Devrim Yilmaz, 2012. "Simple Dynamics of Public Debt with Productive Public Goods," Centre for Growth and Business Cycle Research Discussion Paper Series 165, Economics, The University of Manchester.
    11. Philippe Michel & Leopold Von Thadden & Jean‐Pierre Vidal, 2010. "Debt Stabilizing Fiscal Rules," Journal of Public Economic Theory, Association for Public Economic Theory, vol. 12(5), pages 923-941, October.
    12. Aaron George Grech, 2018. "What Makes Pension Reforms Sustainable?," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 10(8), pages 1-12, August.
    13. P R Agénor & D Yilmaz, 2006. "The Tyranny of Rules: Fiscal Discipline, Productive Spending, and Growth," Centre for Growth and Business Cycle Research Discussion Paper Series 73, Economics, The University of Manchester.
    14. Breuss, Fritz & Roeger, Werner, 2005. "The SGP fiscal rule in the case of sluggish growth: Simulations with the QUEST model," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 27(7), pages 767-788, October.
    15. Otilia Manta & Kostas Gouliamos & Jie Kong & Zhou Li & Nguyen Minh Ha & Rajendra Prasad Mohanty & Hongmei Yang & Ruihui Pu & Xiao-Guang Yue, 2020. "The Architecture of Financial Networks and Models of Financial Instruments According to the “Just Transition Mechanism” at the European Level," JRFM, MDPI, vol. 13(10), pages 1-24, October.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    endogenous growth; fiscal policy; sustainability of public finances;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • H63 - Public Economics - - National Budget, Deficit, and Debt - - - Debt; Debt Management; Sovereign Debt
    • H62 - Public Economics - - National Budget, Deficit, and Debt - - - Deficit; Surplus
    • O41 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Growth and Aggregate Productivity - - - One, Two, and Multisector Growth Models

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