IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/ecb/ecbwps/2003253.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Bond market inflation expectations and longer-term trends in broad monetary growth and inflation in industrial countries, 1880-2001

Author

Listed:
  • Dewald, William G.

Abstract

Annual data for thirteen countries revealed three long up trends and down trends in inflation that were matched by growth rates in M2 and nominal GDP but not real GDP in each country and cross-country averages. Inflationary expectations as estimated by bond rates less real growth trends indicated little inflation expectation until the 1960s. Central banks had credibility to keep inflation low even during wartime. It was lost as inflation rose in the 1970s and regained only as inflation fell subsequently. Although relationships with annual data were not as reliable as with ten-year averages, annual inflation was significantly related to annual M2 growth and inflationary expectations which should not be ignored in central bank decision making. JEL Classification: E3, E40, E50, N10

Suggested Citation

  • Dewald, William G., 2003. "Bond market inflation expectations and longer-term trends in broad monetary growth and inflation in industrial countries, 1880-2001," Working Paper Series 253, European Central Bank.
    • Handle: RePEc:ecb:ecbwps:2003253
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://www.ecb.europa.eu//pub/pdf/scpwps/ecbwp253.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. U. Michael Bergman & Michael D. Bordo & Lars Jonung, 1998. "Historical evidence on business cycles: the international experience," Conference Series ; [Proceedings], Federal Reserve Bank of Boston, vol. 42(Jun), pages 65-119.
    2. Wicker,Elmus, 1996. "The Banking Panics of the Great Depression," Cambridge Books, Cambridge University Press, number 9780521562614, January.
    3. Lucas, Robert E, Jr, 1996. "Nobel Lecture: Monetary Neutrality," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 104(4), pages 661-682, August.
    4. William G. Dewald, 1963. "Free Reserves, Total Reserves, and Monetary Control," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 71(2), pages 141-141.
    5. William G. Dewald, 1998. "Bond market inflation credibility," Monetary Trends, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, issue Feb.
    6. Nicoletta Batini, 2006. "Euro area inflation persistence," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 31(4), pages 977-1002, November.
    7. Michael D. Bordo & Barry Eichengreen, 1993. "A Retrospective on the Bretton Woods System: Lessons for International Monetary Reform," NBER Books, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc, number bord93-1, May.
    8. Darby, Michael R. & Lothian, James R. & Gandolfi, Arthur E. & Schwartz, Anna J., 1983. "The International Transmission of Inflation," National Bureau of Economic Research Books, University of Chicago Press, number 9780226136417, August.
    9. Michael D. Bordo, 1993. "The Bretton Woods International Monetary System: A Historical Overview," NBER Chapters, in: A Retrospective on the Bretton Woods System: Lessons for International Monetary Reform, pages 3-108, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    10. Taylor, John B., 1993. "Discretion versus policy rules in practice," Carnegie-Rochester Conference Series on Public Policy, Elsevier, vol. 39(1), pages 195-214, December.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Alfred A. Haug, 2014. "On real interest rate persistence: the role of breaks," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 46(10), pages 1058-1066, April.
    2. McCallum, Bennett T. & Nelson, Edward, 2010. "Money and Inflation: Some Critical Issues," Handbook of Monetary Economics, in: Benjamin M. Friedman & Michael Woodford (ed.), Handbook of Monetary Economics, edition 1, volume 3, chapter 3, pages 97-153, Elsevier.
    3. Alfred A. Haug & William G. Dewald, 2012. "Money, Output, And Inflation In The Longer Term: Major Industrial Countries, 1880–2001," Economic Inquiry, Western Economic Association International, vol. 50(3), pages 773-787, July.
    4. Binder, Carola Conces, 2016. "Estimation of historical inflation expectations," Explorations in Economic History, Elsevier, vol. 61(C), pages 1-31.
    5. repec:zbw:bofrdp:2019_001 is not listed on IDEAS
    6. Adam Cagliarini & Christopher Kent & Glenn Stevens, 2010. "Fifty Years of Monetary Policy: What Have We Learned?," RBA Annual Conference Volume (Discontinued), in: Christopher Kent & Michael Robson (ed.),Reserve Bank of Australia 50th Anniversary Symposium, Reserve Bank of Australia.
    7. Siklos, Pierre L., 2012. "No coupling, no decoupling, only mutual inter-dependence: Business cycles in emerging vs. mature economies," BOFIT Discussion Papers 17/2012, Bank of Finland Institute for Emerging Economies (BOFIT).
    8. Gallegati, Marco & Giri, Federico & Fratianni, Michele, 2019. "Money growth and inflation: International historical evidence on high inflation episodes for developed countries," Bank of Finland Research Discussion Papers 1/2019, Bank of Finland.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Michael D. Bordo & Athanasios Orphanides, 2013. "Introduction to "The Great Inflation: The Rebirth of Modern Central Banking"," NBER Chapters, in: The Great Inflation: The Rebirth of Modern Central Banking, pages 1-22, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    2. Oosterlinck, Kim & Accominotti, Olivier & BRIERE, Marie & Burietz, Aurore & Szafarz, Ariane, 2020. "Did Globalization Kill Contagion?," CEPR Discussion Papers 14395, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    3. Lothian, James R. & McCarthy, Cornelia H., 2009. "The behavior of money and other economic variables: Two natural experiments," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 28(7), pages 1204-1220, November.
    4. Laidler, David, 2017. "Economic ideas, the monetary order and the uneasy case for policy rules," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 54(PA), pages 12-23.
    5. William Martin & Robert Rowthorn, 2004. "Will Stability Last?," CESifo Working Paper Series 1324, CESifo.
    6. Bordo, Michael D. & Schwartz, Anna J., 1999. "Monetary policy regimes and economic performance: The historical record," Handbook of Macroeconomics, in: J. B. Taylor & M. Woodford (ed.), Handbook of Macroeconomics, edition 1, volume 1, chapter 3, pages 149-234, Elsevier.
    7. Lin, Justin Yifu & Fardoust, Shahrokh & Rosenblatt, David, 2012. "Reform of the international monetary system : a jagged history and uncertain prospects," Policy Research Working Paper Series 6070, The World Bank.
    8. Bordo, Michael D. & Jonung, Lars, 1994. "Monetary Regimes, Inflation and Monetary Reform: An Essay in Honor of Axel Leijonhufvud," SSE/EFI Working Paper Series in Economics and Finance 16, Stockholm School of Economics.
    9. Cohen, Joseph N., 2008. "Managing the Faustian bargain: monetary autonomy in the pursuit of development in Eastern Europe and Latin America," MPRA Paper 22435, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    10. Michael Patrick Curran & Matthew J. Fagerstrom, 2019. "Monetary Growth and Financial Sector Wages," Villanova School of Business Department of Economics and Statistics Working Paper Series 41, Villanova School of Business Department of Economics and Statistics.
    11. Torres, Ernani & Zeidan, Rodrigo, 2016. "The life-cycle of national development banks: The experience of Brazil's BNDES," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 62(C), pages 97-104.
    12. Höpner, Martin, 2019. "The German undervaluation regime under Bretton Woods: How Germany became the nightmare of the world economy," MPIfG Discussion Paper 19/1, Max Planck Institute for the Study of Societies.
    13. Akhand Akhtar Hossain, 2009. "Central Banking and Monetary Policy in the Asia-Pacific," Books, Edward Elgar Publishing, number 12777.
    14. Amr S. Hosny & N. Kundan Kishor & Mohsen Bahmani-Oskooee, 2015. "Understanding the dynamics of the macroeconomic trilemma," International Review of Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 29(1), pages 32-64, January.
    15. Michael D. Bordo & Marc Flandreau, 2003. "Core, Periphery, Exchange Rate Regimes, and Globalization," NBER Chapters, in: Globalization in Historical Perspective, pages 417-472, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    16. Michael D. Bordo, 2016. "The Operation and Demise of the Bretton Woods System; 1958 to 1971," Economics Working Papers 16116, Hoover Institution, Stanford University.
    17. Höpner, Martin & Schäfer, Armin (ed.), 2008. "Die Politische Ökonomie der europäischen Integration," Schriften aus dem Max-Planck-Institut für Gesellschaftsforschung Köln, Max Planck Institute for the Study of Societies, volume 61, number 61.
    18. Michael D. Bordo & Owen F. Humpage, 2014. "Federal Reserve Policy and Bretton Woods," NBER Working Papers 20656, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    19. Gerald P. Dwyer & James R. Lothian, 2002. "International money and common currencies in historical perspective," FRB Atlanta Working Paper 2002-7, Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta.
    20. Andreas Beyer & Vitor Gaspar & Christina Gerberding & Otmar Issing, 2013. "Opting Out of the Great Inflation: German Monetary Policy after the Breakdown of Bretton Woods," NBER Chapters, in: The Great Inflation: The Rebirth of Modern Central Banking, pages 301-346, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    central bank; History; inflation; interest rates; money; money and credit;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E3 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles
    • E40 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - General
    • E50 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - General
    • N10 - Economic History - - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics; Industrial Structure; Growth; Fluctuations - - - General, International, or Comparative

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:ecb:ecbwps:2003253. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Official Publications (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/emieude.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.