IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/eab/tradew/22179.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Bilateral J-Curves between Pakistan and Her Trading Partners

Author

Listed:
  • Zehra Aftab

    (PIDE)

  • Sajawal Khan

Abstract

Earlier studies that investigated the J-Curve phenomenon for Pakistan employed aggregate trade data. These studies suffered from the aggregation bias problem. In order to overcome this constraint, this paper tests the effects of real exchange rate depreciation in the Pakistani Rupee on the bilateral trade balance between Pakistan and her 12 respective trade partners. These countries, together, account for almost half of Pakistans total trade. In order to differentiate between the long-run equilibrium and short-run disequilibrium dynamics, and also to deal with non-stationary data, the ARDL approach isused. The results do not provide any support for the standard J-curve phenomenon.

Suggested Citation

  • Zehra Aftab & Sajawal Khan, 2008. "Bilateral J-Curves between Pakistan and Her Trading Partners," Trade Working Papers 22179, East Asian Bureau of Economic Research.
    • Handle: RePEc:eab:tradew:22179
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.eaber.org/node/22179
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    Other versions of this item:

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Rose, Andrew K. & Yellen, Janet L., 1989. "Is there a J-curve?," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 24(1), pages 53-68, July.
    2. Mohsen Bahmani-Oskooee & Taggert Brooks, 1999. "Bilateral J-Curve between U.S. and her trading partners," Review of World Economics (Weltwirtschaftliches Archiv), Springer;Institut für Weltwirtschaft (Kiel Institute for the World Economy), vol. 135(1), pages 156-165, March.
    3. Swarnjit Arora & Mohsen Bahmani-Oskooee & Gour Goswami, 2003. "Bilateral J-curve between India and her trading partners," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 35(9), pages 1037-1041.
    4. Bahmani-Oskooee, Mohsen, 1985. "Devaluation and the J-Curve: Some Evidence from LDCs," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 67(3), pages 500-504, August.
    5. Stephen P. Magee, 1973. "Currency Contracts, Pass-Through, and Devaluation," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 4(1), pages 303-325.
    6. Marquez, Jaime, 1990. "Bilateral Trade Elasticities," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 72(1), pages 70-77, February.
    7. Mohsen Bahmani-Oskooee, 1998. "Cointegration Approach to Estimate the Long-Run Trade Elasticities in LDCs," International Economic Journal, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 12(3), pages 89-96.
    8. Zehra Aftab & Aurangzeb, 2002. "The Long-run and Short-run Impact of Exchange Rate Devaluation on Pakistan's Trade Performance," The Pakistan Development Review, Pakistan Institute of Development Economics, vol. 41(3), pages 277-286.
    9. Rose, Andrew K., 1991. "The role of exchange rates in a popular model of international trade : Does the 'Marshall-Lerner' condition hold?," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 30(3-4), pages 301-316, May.
    10. Rose, Andrew K., 1990. "Exchange rates and the trade balance : Some evidence from developing countries," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 34(3), pages 271-275, November.
    11. Paul R. Krugman & Richard E. Baldwin, 1987. "The Persistence of the U.S. Trade Deficit," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 18(1), pages 1-56.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Muhammad Omer & Junaid Kamal & Jakob Haan, 2023. "Does an exchange rate depreciation improve the trade balance of Pakistan?," International Journal of Economic Policy Studies, Springer, vol. 17(1), pages 163-185, February.
    2. Safet KURTOVIC & Blerim HALILI & Nehat MAXHUNI, 2017. "Bosnia and Herzegovina vs. Her Trading Partner from Southeast Europe," Turkish Economic Review, KSP Journals, vol. 4(1), pages 75-85, March.
    3. Mohsen Bahmani-Oskooee & Javed Iqbal & Muhammad Muzammil, 2017. "Pakistan-EU Commodity Trade: Is there Evidence of J-Curve Effect?," Global Economy Journal (GEJ), World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd., vol. 17(2), pages 1-8, June.
    4. Mubasher Iqbal & Rukshana Kalim & Noman Arshed, 2019. "Domestic and Foreign Incomes and Trade Balance - A Case of South Asian Economies," Asian Development Policy Review, Asian Economic and Social Society, vol. 7(4), pages 355-368, December.
    5. Javed Iqbal & Sareer Ahmad & Misbah Nosheen & Mark Wohar, 2023. "Empirical investigation of the S-curve phenomenon in Pakistan-China commodity trade," Economics Bulletin, AccessEcon, vol. 43(4), pages 1853-1864.
    6. Aamir Khan & Aneel Salman & Muhammad Arshad Khan, 2019. "Is Exchange Rate Effect Trade Balance in Pakistan? Evidence Based on J- Curve," International Journal of Economic Sciences, International Institute of Social and Economic Sciences, vol. 8(2), pages 60-79, December.
    7. Nabeela KOUSAR* & Muhammad Rizwan YASEEN** & Imran QAISER***, 2017. "THE S-CURVES DYNAMICS OF TRADE: The Case Study of Pakistan," Pakistan Journal of Applied Economics, Applied Economics Research Centre, vol. 27(1), pages 121-138.
    8. Kurtovic, Safet & Halili, Blerim & Maxhuni, Nehat, 2016. "Bilateral Trade Elasticity: B&H versus its seven trade partners," MPRA Paper 72297, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    9. Shahbaz, Muhammad & Jalil, Abdul & Islam, Faridul, 2010. "Real Exchange Rate Changes and Trade Balance in Pakistan: A Revisit," MPRA Paper 27631, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    10. Nadeem Ul Haque & Musleh-ud Din & Lubna Hasan, 2007. "Research at PIDE: Key Messages," PIDE Books, Pakistan Institute of Development Economics, number 2007:2.
    11. Mohsen Bahmani-Oskooee & Ahmed Usman & Sana Ullah, 2020. "Asymmetric J-curve in the commodity trade between Pakistan and United States: evidence from 41 industries," Eurasian Economic Review, Springer;Eurasia Business and Economics Society, vol. 10(2), pages 163-188, June.
    12. Javed Iqbal & Misbah Nosheen & Gauhar Rehman Panezai & Salahuddin, 2021. "Asymmetric cointegration, Non‐linear ARDL, and the J‐curve: A bilateral analysis of Pakistan and its trading partners," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 26(2), pages 2263-2278, April.
    13. Talat Afza & Khalid Ahmed & Muhammad Shahbaz, 2016. "Does Harberger–Laursen–Metzler (HLM) Exist in Pakistan? Cointegration, Causality and Forecast Error Variance Decomposition Tests," Global Business Review, International Management Institute, vol. 17(4), pages 759-778, August.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Hsing Yu, 2008. "A Study of the J-Curve for Seven Selected Latin American Countries," Global Economy Journal, De Gruyter, vol. 8(4), pages 1-14, December.
    2. Hsing, Yu, 2009. "Test of the J-curve for the DR-CAFTA countries and policy implications," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 23(3), pages 293-301, September.
    3. Peguero, Anadel G. & Cruz-Rodríguez, Alexis, 2016. "Condición Marshall-Lerner y el efecto Curva J: Evidencias para la República Dominicana [Marshall-Lerner Condition and J-Curve Effect: Evidence for the Dominican Republic]," MPRA Paper 71535, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    4. Trofimov, Ivan D., 2020. "Is There a J-Curve Effect in the Services Trade in Canada? A Panel Data Analysis," MPRA Paper 106704, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    5. Halicioglu, Ferda, 2008. "The bilateral J-curve: Turkey versus her 13 trading partners," Journal of Asian Economics, Elsevier, vol. 19(3), pages 236-243, June.
    6. Cem IŞIK & Magdalena RADULESCU & Aleksandra FEDAJEV, 2019. "The effects of exchange rate depreciations and appreciations on the tourism trade balance: the case of Spain," Eastern Journal of European Studies, Centre for European Studies, Alexandru Ioan Cuza University, vol. 10, pages 221-237, June.
    7. Elif Akbostanci, 2002. "Dynamics of the trade balance: The Turkish J-curve," ERC Working Papers 0205, ERC - Economic Research Center, Middle East Technical University, revised May 2002.
    8. Olugbenga Onafowora, 2003. "Exchange rate and trade balance in east asia: is there a J-curve?," Economics Bulletin, AccessEcon, vol. 5(18), pages 1-13.
    9. Ali, Syed Zahid & Anwar, Sajid, 2018. "Anticipated versus unanticipated terms of trade shocks and the J-curve phenomenon," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 81(C), pages 1-19.
    10. Bao, Ho Hoang Gia & Le, Hoang Phong, 2021. "ASEAN's trade balance with the whole EU-28 at industry level: The role of vehicle currency," The Journal of Economic Asymmetries, Elsevier, vol. 24(C).
    11. Mohsen Bahmani-Oskooee & Hanafiah Harvey, 2018. "Is There J-Curve Effect In The Commodity Trade Of Singapore With Malaysia? An Empirical Study," The Singapore Economic Review (SER), World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd., vol. 63(03), pages 567-591, June.
    12. M. Ershad HUSSAIN & Mahfuzul HAQUE, 2014. "Is the J-Curve a Reality in Developing Countries?," Journal of Economics and Political Economy, KSP Journals, vol. 1(2), pages 231-240, December.
    13. Bosupeng, Mpho & Naranpanawa, Athula & Su, Jen-Je, 2024. "Does exchange rate volatility affect the impact of appreciation and depreciation on the trade balance? A nonlinear bivariate approach," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 130(C).
    14. Mohsen Bahmani-Oskooee & Thouraya Hadj Amor & Hanafiah Harvey & Huseyin Karamelikli, 2019. "Is there a J-curve effect in Tunisia’s bilateral trade with her partners? New evidence from asymmetry analysis," Economic Change and Restructuring, Springer, vol. 52(1), pages 1-18, February.
    15. Kimbugwe, Hassan, 2006. "The bilateral J-Curve hypothesis between Turkey and her 9 trading partners," MPRA Paper 4254, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    16. Nabeela KOUSAR* & Muhammad Rizwan YASEEN** & Imran QAISER***, 2017. "THE S-CURVES DYNAMICS OF TRADE: The Case Study of Pakistan," Pakistan Journal of Applied Economics, Applied Economics Research Centre, vol. 27(1), pages 121-138.
    17. Kurtović Safet & Halili Blerim & Maxhuni Nehat, 2017. "Effect of Depreciation of the Exchange Rate on the Trade Balance of Albania," Naše gospodarstvo/Our economy, Sciendo, vol. 63(3), pages 27-36, September.
    18. Huseyin Kalyoncu & Ilhan Ozturk & Seyfettin Artan & Kahraman Kalyoncu, 2009. "Devaluation and trade balance in Latin American countries," Zbornik radova Ekonomskog fakulteta u Rijeci/Proceedings of Rijeka Faculty of Economics, University of Rijeka, Faculty of Economics and Business, vol. 27(1), pages 115-128.
    19. Mohammad Naim Azimi & Mohammad Musa Shafiq, 2022. "The J-curve phenomenon in Afghanistan and its major trading partners: evidence from a non-linear ARDL approach," SN Business & Economics, Springer, vol. 2(7), pages 1-28, July.
    20. BAHMANI-OSKOOEE, Mohsen & HALICIOGLU, Ferda & GHODSI, Seyed Hesam, 2016. "Asymmetric Effects of Exchange Rate Changes on British Bilateral Trade Balances," MPRA Paper 73477, University Library of Munich, Germany.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    J-Curve; Trade Balance; Marshall-Lerner Condition;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • F12 - International Economics - - Trade - - - Models of Trade with Imperfect Competition and Scale Economies; Fragmentation
    • F14 - International Economics - - Trade - - - Empirical Studies of Trade
    • F31 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Foreign Exchange

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eab:tradew:22179. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Shiro Armstrong (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/eaberau.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.