IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/eab/macroe/22462.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Campaign Tactics and Citizens’ Electoral Decisions

Author

Listed:
  • Massimiliano Landi

    (SMU)

  • Chun Seng Yip

Abstract

This paper considers how electoral competition affects voters turnout and candidate choice. We do so via an instrumental-variable (IV) bivariate probit with selection which jointly estimates both processes. Our analysis controls for individual and election characteristics, campaigning, and election day weather. We focus on the effects of negative advertising (tone) and overall spending (intensity) on several aspects of voter behavior, including abstentions. Our findings : tone increases turnout of Independents only, and can strengthen partisanship among non-voters. Campaign intensity matters more than tone. Overall, there is evidence that Democrats, Independents and Republicans have different propensities to react to campaigning, which do not follow a straightforward pattern. We also show that failure to consider turnout in voter choices leads to erroneous conclusions.

Suggested Citation

  • Massimiliano Landi & Chun Seng Yip, 2006. "Campaign Tactics and Citizens’ Electoral Decisions," Macroeconomics Working Papers 22462, East Asian Bureau of Economic Research.
    • Handle: RePEc:eab:macroe:22462
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.eaber.org/node/22462
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Meng, Chun-Lo & Schmidt, Peter, 1985. "On the Cost of Partial Observability in the Bivariate Probit Model," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 26(1), pages 71-85, February.
    2. Ansolabehere, Stephen D. & Iyengar, Shanto & Simon, Adam, 1999. "Replicating Experiments Using Aggregate and Survey Data: The Case of Negative Advertising and Turnout," American Political Science Review, Cambridge University Press, vol. 93(4), pages 901-909, December.
    3. Knack, Steve, 1994. "Does Rain Help the Republicans? Theory and Evidence on Turnout and the Vote," Public Choice, Springer, vol. 79(1-2), pages 187-209, April.
    4. Cameron,A. Colin & Trivedi,Pravin K., 2005. "Microeconometrics," Cambridge Books, Cambridge University Press, number 9780521848053, September.
    5. Ansolabehere, Stephen & Iyengar, Shanto & Simon, Adam & Valentino, Nicholas, 1994. "Does Attack Advertising Demobilize the Electorate?," American Political Science Review, Cambridge University Press, vol. 88(4), pages 829-838, December.
    6. Van de Ven, Wynand P. M. M. & Van Praag, Bernard M. S., 1981. "The demand for deductibles in private health insurance : A probit model with sample selection," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 17(2), pages 229-252, November.
    7. Wattenberg, Martin P. & Brians, Craig Leonard, 1999. "Negative Campaign Advertising: Demobilizer or Mobilizer?," American Political Science Review, Cambridge University Press, vol. 93(4), pages 891-899, December.
    8. Gerber, Alan, 1998. "Estimating the Effect of Campaign Spending on Senate Election Outcomes Using Instrumental Variables," American Political Science Review, Cambridge University Press, vol. 92(2), pages 401-411, June.
    9. Boyes, William J. & Hoffman, Dennis L. & Low, Stuart A., 1989. "An econometric analysis of the bank credit scoring problem," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 40(1), pages 3-14, January.
    10. Kahn, Kim Fridkin & Kenney, Patrick J., 1999. "Do Negative Campaigns Mobilize or Suppress Turnout? Clarifying the Relationship between Negativity and Participation," American Political Science Review, Cambridge University Press, vol. 93(4), pages 877-889, December.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Raphaël Soubeyran, 2009. "Contest with attack and defense: does negative campaigning increase or decrease voter turnout?," Social Choice and Welfare, Springer;The Society for Social Choice and Welfare, vol. 32(3), pages 337-353, March.
    2. Brett R. Gordon & Wesley R. Hartmann, 2013. "Advertising Effects in Presidential Elections," Marketing Science, INFORMS, vol. 32(1), pages 19-35, June.
    3. Filiz Garip, 2012. "An Integrated Analysis of Migration and Remittances: Modeling Migration as a Mechanism for Selection," Population Research and Policy Review, Springer;Southern Demographic Association (SDA), vol. 31(5), pages 637-663, October.
    4. Nunnari, Salvatore & Galasso, Vincenzo & Nannicini, Tommaso, 2020. "Positive Spillovers from Negative Campaigning," CEPR Discussion Papers 14312, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    5. J Banasik & J Crook & L Thomas, 2003. "Sample selection bias in credit scoring models," Journal of the Operational Research Society, Palgrave Macmillan;The OR Society, vol. 54(8), pages 822-832, August.
    6. Jan Brueckner & Kangoh Lee, 2015. "Negative campaigning in a probabilistic voting model," Public Choice, Springer, vol. 164(3), pages 379-399, September.
    7. Sourav Bhattacharya, 2011. "Campaign Rhetoric and the Hide-&-Seek Game," Working Paper 457, Department of Economics, University of Pittsburgh, revised Nov 2012.
    8. Joshua Clinton & John Lapinski, 2004. "Targeted advertising and voter turnout: An experimental study of the 2000 presidential election," Natural Field Experiments 00226, The Field Experiments Website.
    9. Maksym Obrizan, 2011. "A Bayesian Model of Sample Selection with a Discrete Outcome Variable: Detecting Depression in Older Adults," Discussion Papers 41, Kyiv School of Economics.
    10. Balles, Patrick, 2022. "Political Advertising by Special Interest Groups and Voter Participation: The Effects of Less Restrictive Campaign Finance Rules Following Citizens United," VfS Annual Conference 2022 (Basel): Big Data in Economics 264075, Verein für Socialpolitik / German Economic Association.
    11. Schwiebert, Jörg, 2012. "Semiparametric Estimation of a Binary Choice Model with Sample Selection," Hannover Economic Papers (HEP) dp-505, Leibniz Universität Hannover, Wirtschaftswissenschaftliche Fakultät.
    12. Hartarska, Valentina M. & Nadolnyak, Denis A., 2012. "Financing Constraints and Access to Credit in Post Crisis Environment: Evidence from New Farmers in Alabama," 2012 Annual Meeting, August 12-14, 2012, Seattle, Washington 124882, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association.
    13. Fossen, Frank M. & König, Johannes, 2015. "Public health insurance and entry into self-employment," VfS Annual Conference 2015 (Muenster): Economic Development - Theory and Policy 112934, Verein für Socialpolitik / German Economic Association.
    14. Ayouz, Mourad K. & Remaud, Herve, 2003. "The Internationalization Determinants Of The Small Agro-Food Firms: Hypotheses And Statistical Tests," International Food and Agribusiness Management Review, International Food and Agribusiness Management Association, vol. 5(2), pages 1-27.
    15. Matloob Piracha & Massimiliano Tani & Florin Vadean, 2012. "Immigrant over- and under-education: the role of home country labour market experience," IZA Journal of Migration and Development, Springer;Forschungsinstitut zur Zukunft der Arbeit GmbH (IZA), vol. 1(1), pages 1-21, December.
    16. Vincenzo Galasso & Tommaso Nannicini, 2016. "Persuasion and Gender: Experimental Evidence from Two Political Campaigns," CESifo Working Paper Series 5868, CESifo.
    17. David Soberman & Loïc Sadoulet, 2007. "Campaign Spending Limits and Political Advertising," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 53(10), pages 1521-1532, October.
    18. Van Dusen, M. Eric & Gauchan, Devendra & Smale, Melinda, 2005. "On farm conservation of rice biodiversity in Nepal," 2005 Annual meeting, July 24-27, Providence, RI 19210, American Agricultural Economics Association (New Name 2008: Agricultural and Applied Economics Association).
    19. González-Cabán, Armando & Loomis, John B. & Rodriguez, Andrea & Hesseln, Hayley, 2007. "A comparison of CVM survey response rates, protests and willingness-to-pay of Native Americans and general population for fuels reduction policies," Journal of Forest Economics, Elsevier, vol. 13(1), pages 49-71, May.
    20. Vincenzo Galasso & Tommaso Nannicini, 2013. "Men Vote in Mars, Women Vote in Venus: A Survey Experiment in the Field," CESifo Working Paper Series 4328, CESifo.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    candidate choice; Democrat; Independent; Republican; campaigning; election characteristics;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • D72 - Microeconomics - - Analysis of Collective Decision-Making - - - Political Processes: Rent-seeking, Lobbying, Elections, Legislatures, and Voting Behavior
    • D70 - Microeconomics - - Analysis of Collective Decision-Making - - - General

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eab:macroe:22462. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Shiro Armstrong (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/eaberau.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.