IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/eab/financ/22458.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Underpriced Default Spread Exacerbates Market Crashes

Author

Listed:
  • Winston T.H. Koh

    (SMU)

  • Roberto S. Mariano
  • Andrey Pavlovb
  • Sock Yong Phang
  • Augustine H. H. Tan
  • Susan M. Wachter

Abstract

In this paper, we develop a specific observable symptom of a banking system that underprices the default spread in non-recourse asset-backed lending. Using three different data sets for 18 countries and property types, we find that, following a negative demand shock, the underpricing economies experience far deeper asset market crashes than economies in which the put option is correctly priced. Furthermore, only one of the countries in our sample continues to exhibit the underpricing symptom following a market crash. This indicates that market crashes have a cleansing effect and eliminate underpricing at least for a period of time. This makes investing in such markets safer following a negative demand shock.

Suggested Citation

  • Winston T.H. Koh & Roberto S. Mariano & Andrey Pavlovb & Sock Yong Phang & Augustine H. H. Tan & Susan M. Wachter, 2006. "Underpriced Default Spread Exacerbates Market Crashes," Finance Working Papers 22458, East Asian Bureau of Economic Research.
    • Handle: RePEc:eab:financ:22458
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.eaber.org/node/22458
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    Other versions of this item:

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Saito, Hitoshi, 2003. "The US real estate bubble?: A comparison to Japan," Japan and the World Economy, Elsevier, vol. 15(3), pages 365-371, August.
    2. Franklin Allen & Douglas Gale, 1999. "Innovations in Financial Services, Relationships, and Risk Sharing," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 45(9), pages 1239-1253, September.
    3. Franklin Allen, 2001. "Do Financial Institutions Matter?," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 56(4), pages 1165-1175, August.
    4. John Krainer & Chishen Wei, 2004. "House prices and fundamental value," FRBSF Economic Letter, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, issue oct1.
    5. Jonathan McCarthy & Richard Peach, 2004. "Are home prices the next \\"bubble\\"?," Economic Policy Review, Federal Reserve Bank of New York, issue Dec, pages 1-17.
    6. Karl E. Case & Robert J. Shiller, 2003. "Is There a Bubble in the Housing Market?," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 34(2), pages 299-362.
    7. Richard J. Herring & Susan Wachter, 1999. "Real Estate Booms and Banking Busts: An International Perspective," Center for Financial Institutions Working Papers 99-27, Wharton School Center for Financial Institutions, University of Pennsylvania.
    8. repec:bla:jfinan:v:53:y:1998:i:4:p:1245-1284 is not listed on IDEAS
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Richard Green & Roberto Mariano & Andrey Pavlov & Susan Wachter, 2009. "Misaligned Incentives and Mortgage Lending in Asia," NBER Chapters, in: Financial Sector Development in the Pacific Rim, pages 95-111, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    2. Andrey Pavlov & Susan Wachter, 2009. "Mortgage Put Options and Real Estate Markets," The Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics, Springer, vol. 38(1), pages 89-103, January.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Richard Green & Roberto Mariano & Andrey Pavlov & Susan Wachter, 2009. "Misaligned Incentives and Mortgage Lending in Asia," NBER Chapters, in: Financial Sector Development in the Pacific Rim, pages 95-111, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    2. Andrey Pavlov & Susan Wachter, 2009. "Mortgage Put Options and Real Estate Markets," The Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics, Springer, vol. 38(1), pages 89-103, January.
    3. Baltagi, Badi H. & Li, Jing, 2015. "Cointegration of matched home purchases and rental price indexes — Evidence from Singapore," Regional Science and Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 55(C), pages 80-88.
    4. Frederic S. Mishkin, 2007. "Housing and the monetary transmission mechanism," Proceedings - Economic Policy Symposium - Jackson Hole, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City, pages 359-413.
    5. Frederic S. Mishkin, 2007. "\"Housing and the monetary transmission mechanism,\" Finance and Economics Discussion Series Working Paper: a speech at the Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City's Economic Symposium, Jackson ," Speech 312, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    6. Christopher L. Foote & Kristopher Gerardi & Paul S. Willen, 2010. "Reasonable people did disagree : optimism and pessimism about the U.S. housing market before the crash," Public Policy Discussion Paper 10-5, Federal Reserve Bank of Boston.
    7. Christian Hott & Pierre Monnin, 2008. "Fundamental Real Estate Prices: An Empirical Estimation with International Data," The Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics, Springer, vol. 36(4), pages 427-450, May.
    8. Crowe, Christopher & Dell’Ariccia, Giovanni & Igan, Deniz & Rabanal, Pau, 2013. "How to deal with real estate booms: Lessons from country experiences," Journal of Financial Stability, Elsevier, vol. 9(3), pages 300-319.
    9. Gabriele Galati & Federica Teppa & Rob Alessie, 2013. "Heterogeneity in house price dynamics," DNB Working Papers 371, Netherlands Central Bank, Research Department.
    10. Giorgio Canarella & Stephen M. Miller & Stephen K. Pollard, 2010. "Unit Roots and Structural Change: An Application to US House-Price Indices," Working papers 2010-04, University of Connecticut, Department of Economics, revised Dec 2010.
    11. Mikhed, Vyacheslav & Zemcík, Petr, 2009. "Do house prices reflect fundamentals? Aggregate and panel data evidence," Journal of Housing Economics, Elsevier, vol. 18(2), pages 140-149, June.
    12. Holly, Sean & Pesaran, M. Hashem & Yamagata, Takashi, 2010. "A spatio-temporal model of house prices in the USA," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 158(1), pages 160-173, September.
    13. Ren, Yu & Xiong, Cong & Yuan, Yufei, 2012. "House price bubbles in China," China Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 23(4), pages 786-800.
    14. Suarez, Javier & Ceron, Jose A., 2006. "Hot and Cold Housing Markets: International Evidence," CEPR Discussion Papers 5411, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    15. Kim, Jan R. & Lim, Gieyoung, 2016. "Fundamentals and rational bubbles in the Korean housing market: A modified present-value approach," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 59(C), pages 174-181.
    16. Biljana Davidovska Stojanova & Branimir Jovanovic & Maja Kadievska Vojnovic & Gani Ramadani & Magdalena Petrovska, 2008. "Real Estate Prices In The Republic Of Macedonia," Working Papers 2008-03, National Bank of the Republic of North Macedonia.
    17. Goodman, Allen C. & Thibodeau, Thomas G., 2008. "Where are the speculative bubbles in US housing markets?," Journal of Housing Economics, Elsevier, vol. 17(2), pages 117-137, June.
    18. Michael LaCour‐Little & Jing Yang, 2010. "Pay Me Now or Pay Me Later: Alternative Mortgage Products and the Mortgage Crisis," Real Estate Economics, American Real Estate and Urban Economics Association, vol. 38(4), pages 687-732, Winter.
    19. Patrick Bajari & Chenghuan Sean Chu & Minjung Park, 2008. "An Empirical Model of Subprime Mortgage Default From 2000 to 2007," NBER Working Papers 14625, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    20. Ryan R. Brady, 2011. "Measuring the diffusion of housing prices across space and over time," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 26(2), pages 213-231, March.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    real estate bubble; lender optimism; disaster myopia; Asian financial crisis;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • G01 - Financial Economics - - General - - - Financial Crises
    • L85 - Industrial Organization - - Industry Studies: Services - - - Real Estate Services
    • G21 - Financial Economics - - Financial Institutions and Services - - - Banks; Other Depository Institutions; Micro Finance Institutions; Mortgages

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eab:financ:22458. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Shiro Armstrong (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/eaberau.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.