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Probabilistic methodology for adequacy assessment under uncertainty for a multi-region system

Author

Listed:
  • Julia Bellenbaum
  • Benjamin Böcker
  • Thomas Kallabis
  • Christoph Weber

    (Chair for Management Sciences and Energy Economics, University of Duisburg-Essen)

Abstract

We develop a novel probabilistic methodology for consistently assessing system adequacy within an interconnected region. Relevant stochastic quantities, such as load and generation from wind and PV, are characterized by the help of quantile regressions and copulas. Based on this characterization, Monte-Carlo simulation is applied to assess system adequacy. This allows calculating adequacy indicators such as LOLP and LOLE for very secure systems with small contingency probabilities. Common assessment indicators are used to compare system adequacy both for individual countries and the interconnected system within the region considered. The developed methodology is applied to the CWE region in the year 2025. We show that including interconnections to neighboring countries, which is modelled as flow-based market coupling, increases generation adequacy significantly. Furthermore, we investigate the impact of correlated stochastic distributions and maintenance scheduling. Both these factors have significant implications on the ability of the system to solve shortages through multilateral cooperation.

Suggested Citation

  • Julia Bellenbaum & Benjamin Böcker & Thomas Kallabis & Christoph Weber, 2019. "Probabilistic methodology for adequacy assessment under uncertainty for a multi-region system," EWL Working Papers 1912, University of Duisburg-Essen, Chair for Management Science and Energy Economics, revised Dec 2019.
    • Handle: RePEc:dui:wpaper:1912
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Information shocks; electricity system; investment; policy instruments; carbon tax; feed-in tariff;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C15 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General - - - Statistical Simulation Methods: General
    • C31 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Cross-Sectional Models; Spatial Models; Treatment Effect Models; Quantile Regressions; Social Interaction Models
    • Q41 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Energy - - - Demand and Supply; Prices

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