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The industrial cost of fixed exchange rate regimes

Author

Listed:
  • Valérie Mignon
  • Blaise Gnimassoun
  • Carl Grekou

Abstract

Premature deindustrialization in most emerging and developing economies is one of the most striking stylized facts of the recent decades. In this paper, we provide solid empirical evidence supporting that the choice of a fixed exchange rate regime accelerates this phenomenon. Relying on a panel of 146 developed, emerging, and developing countries over the 1974-2019 period, we show that fixed exchange rate regimes have had a negative, significant, and robust effect on the size of the manufacturing sector —developing countries being the most affected by the industrial cost of such a regime. Additional gravity model regressions show that the impact of fixed regimes passes through the trade channel. In particular, this regime has kept countries with low relative productivity in a state of structural dependence on imports of manufactured products to the detriment of the emergence of a strong local manufacturing sector.

Suggested Citation

  • Valérie Mignon & Blaise Gnimassoun & Carl Grekou, 2024. "The industrial cost of fixed exchange rate regimes," EconomiX Working Papers 2024-18, University of Paris Nanterre, EconomiX.
    • Handle: RePEc:drm:wpaper:2024-18
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    Keywords

    Exchange rate regimes; (De)industrialization; Manufacturing; Developing countries; Emerging economies;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E42 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Monetary Sytsems; Standards; Regimes; Government and the Monetary System
    • F43 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - Economic Growth of Open Economies
    • F45 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - Macroeconomic Issues of Monetary Unions
    • F6 - International Economics - - Economic Impacts of Globalization
    • O14 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Development - - - Industrialization; Manufacturing and Service Industries; Choice of Technology

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