IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/drm/wpaper/2019-20.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Prison, Semi-Liberty and Recidivism: Bounding Causal Effects in a Survival Model

Author

Listed:
  • Benjamin Monnery
  • François-Charles Wolff
  • Anaïs Henneguelle

Abstract

This paper investigates the effect of semi-liberty as an alternative to prison on recidivism in France. Our analysis is based on a unique dataset comprising 1,445 offenders, all eligible to semi-liberty. In the absence of an instrumental variable affecting access to semi-liberty but unrelated to recidivism, we turn to selection-on-observable methods as well as sensitivity analyses to bound the causal effect of interest. Our results under treatment exogeneity (Cox regressions) and conditional independence (matching) show that semi-liberty is associated with a reduction of 22% to 31% in offenders’ hazard of recidivism in the five years after release. The estimated effects decrease, but remain negative and significant when credible confounders are introduced. Overall, our analysis lends strong support for a beneficial effect of semi-liberty compared to prison.

Suggested Citation

  • Benjamin Monnery & François-Charles Wolff & Anaïs Henneguelle, 2019. "Prison, Semi-Liberty and Recidivism: Bounding Causal Effects in a Survival Model," EconomiX Working Papers 2019-20, University of Paris Nanterre, EconomiX.
    • Handle: RePEc:drm:wpaper:2019-20
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://economix.fr/pdf/dt/2019/WP_EcoX_2019-20.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    Other versions of this item:

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Joseph G. Altonji & Todd E. Elder & Christopher R. Taber, 2005. "Selection on Observed and Unobserved Variables: Assessing the Effectiveness of Catholic Schools," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 113(1), pages 151-184, February.
    2. Anaïs Henneguelle, 2017. "Comment sortir de prison ? Le rôle des statistiques pénitentiaires dans la compréhension des comportements de récidive," Post-Print hal-01948803, HAL.
    3. Daniel L. Millimet & Rusty Tchernis, 2013. "Estimation Of Treatment Effects Without An Exclusion Restriction: With An Application To The Analysis Of The School Breakfast Program," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 28(6), pages 982-1017, September.
    4. Anaïs Henneguelle & Benjamin Monnery & Annie Kensey, 2016. "Better at Home than in Prison? The Effects of Electronic Monitoring on Recidivism in France," Journal of Law and Economics, University of Chicago Press, vol. 59(3), pages 629-667.
    5. Hainmueller, Jens, 2012. "Entropy Balancing for Causal Effects: A Multivariate Reweighting Method to Produce Balanced Samples in Observational Studies," Political Analysis, Cambridge University Press, vol. 20(1), pages 25-46, January.
    6. Anaïs Henneguelle & Benjamin Monnery & Annie Kensey, 2016. "Better at Home than in Prison? The Effects of Electronic Monitoring on Recidivism in France," Journal of Law and Economics, University of Chicago Press, vol. 59(3), pages 629-667.
    7. Rafael Di Tella & Ernesto Schargrodsky, 2013. "Criminal Recidivism after Prison and Electronic Monitoring," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 121(1), pages 28-73.
    8. Nan Xuan Lin & Stuart Logan & William Edward Henley, 2013. "Bias and Sensitivity Analysis When Estimating Treatment Effects from the Cox Model with Omitted Covariates," Biometrics, The International Biometric Society, vol. 69(4), pages 850-860, December.
    9. Lance Lochner & Enrico Moretti, 2004. "The Effect of Education on Crime: Evidence from Prison Inmates, Arrests, and Self-Reports," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 94(1), pages 155-189, March.
    10. Benjamin Monnery, 2015. "The determinants of recidivism among ex-prisoners: a survival analysis on French data," European Journal of Law and Economics, Springer, vol. 39(1), pages 37-56, February.
    11. Anaïs Henneguelle & Benjamin Monnery, 2017. "Prison, peines alternatives et récidive," Revue française d'économie, Presses de Sciences-Po, vol. 0(1), pages 169-207.
    12. Emily Oster, 2019. "Unobservable Selection and Coefficient Stability: Theory and Evidence," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 37(2), pages 187-204, April.
    13. Joseph G. Altonji & Todd E. Elder & Christopher R. Taber, 2008. "Using Selection on Observed Variables to Assess Bias from Unobservables When Evaluating Swan-Ganz Catheterization," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 98(2), pages 345-350, May.
    14. Quinn McNemar, 1947. "Note on the sampling error of the difference between correlated proportions or percentages," Psychometrika, Springer;The Psychometric Society, vol. 12(2), pages 153-157, June.
    15. Giovanni Mastrobuoni & Daniele Terlizzese, 2014. "Harsh or Human? Detention Conditions and Recidivism," EIEF Working Papers Series 1413, Einaudi Institute for Economics and Finance (EIEF), revised May 2018.
    16. Richey, Jeremiah, 2015. "Shackled labor markets: Bounding the causal effects of criminal convictions in the U.S," International Review of Law and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 41(C), pages 17-24.
    17. Benjamin Monnery, 2015. "The determinants of recidivism among ex-prisoners: a survival analysis on French data," European Journal of Law and Economics, Springer, vol. 39(1), pages 37-56, February.
    18. Latessa, Edward & Allen, Harry E., 1982. "Halfway houses and parole: A national assesment," Journal of Criminal Justice, Elsevier, vol. 10(2), pages 153-163.
    19. Hartman, David J. & Friday, Paul C. & Minor, Kevin I., 1994. "Residential probation: A seven-year follow-up study of halfway house discharges," Journal of Criminal Justice, Elsevier, vol. 22(6), pages 503-515.
    20. Siwach, Garima, 2017. "Criminal background checks and recidivism: Bounding the causal impact," International Review of Law and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 52(C), pages 74-85.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Melcarne, Alessandro & Monnery, Benjamin & Wolff, François-Charles, 2022. "Prosecutors, judges and sentencing disparities: Evidence from traffic offenses in France," International Review of Law and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 71(C).
    2. Benjamin Monnery & Saïd Souam & Anna Montagutelli, 2021. "Economie du travail en prison : enjeux, résultats et recommandations," EconomiX Working Papers 2021-26, University of Paris Nanterre, EconomiX.
    3. Meier, Armando N. & Levav, Jonathan & Meier, Stephan, 2020. "Early Release and Recidivism," IZA Discussion Papers 13035, Institute of Labor Economics (IZA).

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. repec:hal:journl:hal-03680153 is not listed on IDEAS
    2. Melcarne, Alessandro & Monnery, Benjamin & Wolff, François-Charles, 2022. "Prosecutors, judges and sentencing disparities: Evidence from traffic offenses in France," International Review of Law and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 71(C).
    3. Meier, Armando N. & Levav, Jonathan & Meier, Stephan, 2020. "Early Release and Recidivism," IZA Discussion Papers 13035, Institute of Labor Economics (IZA).
    4. Benjamin Monnery & Saïd Souam & Anna Montagutelli, 2021. "Economie du travail en prison : enjeux, résultats et recommandations," EconomiX Working Papers 2021-26, University of Paris Nanterre, EconomiX.
    5. Mikel Bedayo & Gabriel Jiménez & José-Luis Peydró & Raquel Vegas, 2020. "Screening and Loan Origination Time: Lending Standards, Loan Defaults and Bank Failures," Working Papers 1215, Barcelona School of Economics.
    6. Turati, Riccardo, 2024. "Network Abroad and Culture: Global Individual-Level Evidence," GLO Discussion Paper Series 1488, Global Labor Organization (GLO).
    7. Jenny Williams & Don Weatherburn, 2022. "Can Electronic Monitoring Reduce Reoffending?," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 104(2), pages 232-245, May.
    8. Melissa Rubio-Ramos, 2022. "From Plantations to Prisons: The Race Gap in Incarceration After the Abolition of Slavery in the U.S," ECONtribute Discussion Papers Series 195, University of Bonn and University of Cologne, Germany.
    9. Florian Neumeier, 2018. "Do Businessmen Make Good Governors?," Economic Inquiry, Western Economic Association International, vol. 56(4), pages 2116-2136, October.
    10. Gurmeet S. Bhabra & Harjeet S. Bhabra & Ashrafee T. Hossain, 2022. "CEO inside debt and the acquisition of private targets," Accounting and Finance, Accounting and Finance Association of Australia and New Zealand, vol. 62(2), pages 2163-2202, June.
    11. Kamila Borseková & Jaroslav Klátik & Samuel Koróny & Peter Krištofík & Peter Mihók & Martin Orviský, 2020. "Sustainable Policy Measures Based on Implementation of Digital Technologies in Corrections: Exploratory Study from Slovakia and Beyond," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 12(20), pages 1-18, October.
    12. Matthew J. Lindquist & Theodor Vladasel, 2022. "Are entrepreneurs more upwardly mobile?," Economics Working Papers 1841, Department of Economics and Business, Universitat Pompeu Fabra.
    13. William Arbour & Steeve Marchand, 2022. "Parole, Recidivism, and the Role of Supervised Transition," Working Papers tecipa-725, University of Toronto, Department of Economics.
    14. Gunes, Pinar Mine & Tsaneva, Magda, 2020. "The effects of teenage childbearing on education, physical health, and mental distress: evidence from Mexico," Journal of Demographic Economics, Cambridge University Press, vol. 86(2), pages 183-206, June.
    15. Hossain, Ashrafee Tanvir & Kryzanowski, Lawrence, 2021. "Political corruption and Corporate Social Responsibility (CSR)," Journal of Behavioral and Experimental Finance, Elsevier, vol. 31(C).
    16. Davoli, Maddalena & Rodríguez-Planas, Núria, 2020. "Culture and adult financial literacy: Evidence from the United States," Economics of Education Review, Elsevier, vol. 78(C).
    17. Nikolova, Milena & Popova, Olga & Otrachshenko, Vladimir, 2022. "Stalin and the origins of mistrust," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 208(C).
    18. Freier, Ronny & Schumann, Mathias & Siedler, Thomas, 2015. "The earnings returns to graduating with honors — Evidence from law graduates," Labour Economics, Elsevier, vol. 34(C), pages 39-50.
    19. Giovanni Mastrobuoni & Daniele Terlizzese, 2022. "Leave the Door Open? Prison Conditions and Recidivism," American Economic Journal: Applied Economics, American Economic Association, vol. 14(4), pages 200-233, October.
    20. Bünnings, Christian & Hafner, Lucas & Reif, Simon & Tauchmann, Harald, 2021. "In sickness and in health? Health shocks and relationship breakdown: Empirical evidence from Germany," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 190(C), pages 164-190.
    21. Rud, Iryna & Van Klaveren, Chris & Groot, Wim & Maassen van den Brink, Henriëtte, 2014. "The externalities of crime: The effect of criminal involvement of parents on the educational attainment of their children," Economics of Education Review, Elsevier, vol. 38(C), pages 89-103.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Recidivism; semi-liberty; halfway houses; prison; survival analyses; sensitivity analyses;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • K14 - Law and Economics - - Basic Areas of Law - - - Criminal Law
    • K42 - Law and Economics - - Legal Procedure, the Legal System, and Illegal Behavior - - - Illegal Behavior and the Enforcement of Law
    • C18 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General - - - Methodolical Issues: General

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:drm:wpaper:2019-20. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Valerie Mignon (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/modemfr.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.