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Determinants of Business Cycle Synchronization in East Asia: An Extreme Bound Analysis

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  • Toan Nguyen

    (Room 1, Engineering Building No. 4, Yoshida Honmachi, Sakyo-ku, Kyoto,Japan)

Abstract

We investigate the determinants of business cycle synchronization in East Asia by testing the robustness of the potential candidates, using the technique of Extreme Bound Analysis in an OLS regression framework with Newey-West correction for heteroskedasticity and autocorrelation. We find that trade openness and intra-industry trade are major channels of business cycle synchronization. Although the similarity of monetary policies is statistically correlated with degree synchronization, we are unsure whether the former causes the latter or vise versa. The findings are probably good news to the proponents of the prospective currency union. If the trend of increasing openness and bilateral intra-industry trade continues in East Asia, it is expected that the costs of forming a currency union would diminish as business cycles become more synchronized.

Suggested Citation

  • Toan Nguyen, 2007. "Determinants of Business Cycle Synchronization in East Asia: An Extreme Bound Analysis," Working Papers 14, Development and Policies Research Center (DEPOCEN), Vietnam.
    • Handle: RePEc:dpc:wpaper:1407
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Cited by:

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    2. Norrana Khidil & Mohd Azlan Shah Zaidi & Zulkefly Abdul Karim, 2021. "Fragmentation of International Production and Business Cycle Synchronization: New Evidence pre and during Global Financial Crises," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 13(8), pages 1-15, April.
    3. Krzysztof Beck, 2022. "Macroeconomic policy coordination and the European business cycle: Accounting for model uncertainty and reverse causality," Bulletin of Economic Research, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 74(4), pages 1095-1114, October.
    4. Dima, Bogdan & Dima, Ştefana Maria, 2017. "Energy consumption synchronization between Europe, United States and Japan: A spectral analysis assessment," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 77(C), pages 1261-1271.

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    Keywords

    Business Cycle Synchronization; East Asia; Extreme Bound Analysis; Currency Union;
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