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On the ordering of probability forecasts

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  • Prof. Dr. Walter Krämer

    (Faculty of Statistics, Dortmund University of Technology)

Abstract

The paper explores the relationship between various orderings among probability forecasts that have been suggested in the literature. It is shown that well calibrated forecasters are in general not comparable according to the domination ordering suggested by Vardeman and Meeden (1983), that the orderings based on ROC-curves and Gini-curves are identical, and that the domination ordering in conjunction with semicalibration implies the rest.

Suggested Citation

  • Prof. Dr. Walter Krämer, "undated". "On the ordering of probability forecasts," Working Papers 1, Business and Social Statistics Department, Technische Universität Dortmund, revised May 2003.
    • Handle: RePEc:dor:wpaper:1
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Crouhy, Michel & Galai, Dan & Mark, Robert, 2001. "Prototype risk rating system," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 25(1), pages 47-95, January.
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    Cited by:

    1. Walter Krämer & André Güttler, 2008. "On comparing the accuracy of default predictions in the rating industry," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 34(2), pages 343-356, March.
    2. Krämer, Walter & Güttler, André, 2003. "Comparing the accuracy of default predictions in the rating industry: The case of Moody's vs. S&P," Technical Reports 2003,23, Technische Universität Dortmund, Sonderforschungsbereich 475: Komplexitätsreduktion in multivariaten Datenstrukturen.

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