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Bad Luck or Bad Decisions? Macroeconomic Implications of Persistent Heterogeneity in Cognitive Skills and Overconfidence

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  • Oliver Pfäuti
  • Fabian Seyrich
  • Jonathan Zinman

Abstract

Business cycle models often abstract from persistent household heterogeneity, despite its potentially significant implications for macroeconomic fluctuations and policy. We show empirically that the likelihood of being persistently financially constrained decreases with cognitive skills and increases with overconfidence thereon. Guided by this and other micro evidence, we add persistent heterogeneity in cognitive skills and overconfidence to an otherwise standard HANK model. Overconfidence proves to be the key innovation, driving households to spend instead of precautionary save and producing empirically realistic wealth distributions and hand-to-mouth shares and MPCs across the income distribution. We highlight implications for various fiscal policies.

Suggested Citation

  • Oliver Pfäuti & Fabian Seyrich & Jonathan Zinman, 2024. "Bad Luck or Bad Decisions? Macroeconomic Implications of Persistent Heterogeneity in Cognitive Skills and Overconfidence," Discussion Papers of DIW Berlin 2080, DIW Berlin, German Institute for Economic Research.
    • Handle: RePEc:diw:diwwpp:dp2080
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    Cited by:

    1. Christa N. Gibbs & Benedict Guttman-Kenney & Donghoon Lee & Scott T. Nelson & Wilbert H. van der Klaauw & Jialan Wang, 2024. "Consumer Credit Reporting Data," NBER Working Papers 32791, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Household heterogeneity; cognitive skills; overconfidence; financial constraints; fiscal policy; HANK;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • D91 - Microeconomics - - Micro-Based Behavioral Economics - - - Role and Effects of Psychological, Emotional, Social, and Cognitive Factors on Decision Making
    • E21 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - Consumption; Saving; Wealth
    • E62 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook - - - Fiscal Policy; Modern Monetary Theory
    • E71 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macro-Based Behavioral Economics - - - Role and Effects of Psychological, Emotional, Social, and Cognitive Factors on the Macro Economy
    • G51 - Financial Economics - - Household Finance - - - Household Savings, Borrowing, Debt, and Wealth

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