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Persistent US Current Account Deficit: The Role of Foreign Direct Investment

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  • Kaan Celebi
  • Werner Roeger
  • Paul J. J. Welfens

Abstract

This paper re-evaluates the US external deficit which has considerably widened over the 1990s. US safe asset provision to the rest of the world is the dominant explanation for the persistent nature of the US external deficit. We suggest that apart from the safe asset hypothesis, there is an important role for technology shocks originating in US multinational companies that have a strong foreign direct investment presence. It is shown that technology shocks that increase the market value of FDI assets are loosening the sustainability constraint on the trade balance and therefore generate persistent trade balance deficits. Our analysis suggests that this channel can explain why the US tech-boom in the 1990s has contributed significantly to the increase of the US current account deficit and its duration. Technology shocks have been neglected as a reason for longer lasting current account deficits since for these shocks, standard open economy DSGE models can only generate temporary external deficits. We show that our enhanced DSGE-model – covering both trade and FDI – not only matches well the dynamics of the US external balance but can also account for the observed evolution of FDI related components of the external balance. In particular, US technology shocks can match the increase in net FDI income and a rising FDI capital balance. Our analysis suggests that FDI flows and their determinants should play a more important role in monitoring external imbalances by international organizations.

Suggested Citation

  • Kaan Celebi & Werner Roeger & Paul J. J. Welfens, 2024. "Persistent US Current Account Deficit: The Role of Foreign Direct Investment," Discussion Papers of DIW Berlin 2074, DIW Berlin, German Institute for Economic Research.
  • Handle: RePEc:diw:diwwpp:dp2074
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Maurice Obstfeld & Kenneth Rogoff, 2007. "The Unsustainable US Current Account Position Revisited," NBER Chapters, in: G7 Current Account Imbalances: Sustainability and Adjustment, pages 339-376, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    2. Emmanuel Farhi & Francois Gourio, 2018. "Accounting for Macro-Finance Trends: Market Power, Intangibles, and Risk Premia," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 49(2 (Fall)), pages 147-250.
    3. Simcha Barkai, 2020. "Declining Labor and Capital Shares," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 75(5), pages 2421-2463, October.
    4. Enders, Zeno & Müller, Gernot J., 2009. "On the international transmission of technology shocks," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 78(1), pages 45-59, June.
    5. Robert Barsky & Matthew Easton, 2021. "The global saving glut and the fall in U.S. real interest rates: A 15-year retrospective," Economic Perspectives, Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago, issue EP-2021-1, pages 1-15, March.
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Foreign direct investment; current account imbalance; USA; DSGE; technology shocks;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • D5 - Microeconomics - - General Equilibrium and Disequilibrium
    • F21 - International Economics - - International Factor Movements and International Business - - - International Investment; Long-Term Capital Movements
    • F23 - International Economics - - International Factor Movements and International Business - - - Multinational Firms; International Business
    • F32 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Current Account Adjustment; Short-term Capital Movements
    • O3 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Innovation; Research and Development; Technological Change; Intellectual Property Rights

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