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Testing for Identification in SVAR-GARCH Models: Reconsidering the Impact of Monetary Shocks on Exchange Rates

Author

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  • Helmut Lütkepohl
  • George Milunovich

Abstract

Changes in residual volatility in vector autoregressive (VAR) models can be used for identifying structural shocks in a structural VAR analysis. Testable conditions are given for full identification for the case where the volatility changes can be modelled by a multivariate GARCH process. Formal statistical tests are presented for identification and their small sample properties are investigated via a Monte Carlo study. The tests are applied to investigate the validity of the identification conditions in a study of the effects of U.S. monetary policy on exchange rates. It is found that the data do not support full identification in most of the models considered, and the implied problems for the interpretation of the results are discussed.

Suggested Citation

  • Helmut Lütkepohl & George Milunovich, 2015. "Testing for Identification in SVAR-GARCH Models: Reconsidering the Impact of Monetary Shocks on Exchange Rates," Discussion Papers of DIW Berlin 1455, DIW Berlin, German Institute for Economic Research.
    • Handle: RePEc:diw:diwwpp:dp1455
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    3. Markku Lanne & Helmut Lütkepohl, 2008. "Identifying Monetary Policy Shocks via Changes in Volatility," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 40(6), pages 1131-1149, September.
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    8. Normandin, Michel & Phaneuf, Louis, 2004. "Monetary policy shocks:: Testing identification conditions under time-varying conditional volatility," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 51(6), pages 1217-1243, September.
    9. Roberto Rigobon, 2003. "Identification Through Heteroskedasticity," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 85(4), pages 777-792, November.
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    Cited by:

    1. Lütkepohl, Helmut & Netšunajev, Aleksei, 2015. "Structural vector autoregressions with heteroskedasticity: A comparison of different volatility models," SFB 649 Discussion Papers 2015-015, Humboldt University Berlin, Collaborative Research Center 649: Economic Risk.
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Structural vector autoregression; conditional heteroskedasticity; GARCH; identification via heteroskedasticity;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C32 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes; State Space Models

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