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Zukünftige Altersarmut

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  • Johannes Geyer

Abstract

Im Mai 2014 prognostizierte OECD-Generalsekretär Gurría: "Deutschland bekommt ein Problem mit Altersarmut". Die Sorge um wachsende Altersarmut hat in Deutschland längst die Politik erreicht. Bereits im Frühjahr 2008 warnten die beiden ostdeutschen Minister aus Sachsen-Anhalt und Mecklenburg-Vorpommern, Jens Bullerjahn und Erwin SelleringBereits im Frühjahr 2008 warnten die beiden ostdeutschen Minister aus Sachsen-Anhalt und Mecklenburg-Vorpommern, Jens Bullerjahn und Erwin Sellering, vor einer drohenden Altersarmut in Ostdeutschland. Im September 2012 schlug die damalige Bundesarbeitsministerin von der Leyen Alarm: "Es steht nicht mehr und nicht weniger als die Legitimität des Rentensystems für die junge Generation auf dem Spiel." Die Brisanz von Altersarmut liegt darin, dass Ältere ihre Einkommensposition nach dem Erwerbsaustritt kaum noch verbessern können und im Armutsfall häufig dauerhaft arm bleiben. Obwohl die Gründe dieser Entwicklung, zum einen die Rentenreformen der vergangenen zweieinhalb Jahrzehnte und zum anderen die Arbeitsmarktentwicklung, weitgehend unstrittig sind, gibt es erst wenige Prognosen der zukünftigen Armutsentwicklung. Dem liegen methodische Probleme zugrunde, die im Folgenden erläutert werden. Daran anschließend werden die bislang vorliegenden Erkenntnisse zur Einkommensentwicklung Älterer vorgestellt.

Suggested Citation

  • Johannes Geyer, 2014. "Zukünftige Altersarmut," DIW Roundup: Politik im Fokus 25, DIW Berlin, German Institute for Economic Research.
    • Handle: RePEc:diw:diwrup:25de
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Geyer, Johannes & Steiner, Viktor, 2014. "Future public pensions and changing employment patterns across birth cohorts," Journal of Pension Economics and Finance, Cambridge University Press, vol. 13(2), pages 172-209, April.
    2. Richard Hauser, 2009. "Neue Armut im Alter," Wirtschaftsdienst, Springer;ZBW - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics, vol. 89(4), pages 248-256, April.
    3. Martin Albrecht & Hermann Buslei & Peter Haan & Richard Ochmann & Bert Rürup & Alina Wolfschütz, 2014. "Ehe- und familienbezogene Leistungen in der Alterssicherung: Wirkungen auf die wirtschaftliche Stabilität von Familien," Vierteljahrshefte zur Wirtschaftsforschung / Quarterly Journal of Economic Research, DIW Berlin, German Institute for Economic Research, vol. 83(1), pages 87-100.
    4. Hermann Buslei & Peter Haan & Richard Ochmann & Bert Rürup, 2014. "Ehe- und familienbezogene Leistungen in der Alterssicherung: wichtig für die wirtschaftliche Stabilität von Familien," DIW Wochenbericht, DIW Berlin, German Institute for Economic Research, vol. 81(23), pages 503-509.
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    Cited by:

    1. Johannes Geyer, 2015. "Grundsicherungsbezug und Armutsrisikoquote als Indikatoren von Altersarmut," DIW Roundup: Politik im Fokus 62, DIW Berlin, German Institute for Economic Research.

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