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Future public pensions and changing employment patterns across birth cohorts

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  • GEYER, JOHANNES
  • STEINER, VIKTOR

Abstract

We analyse the impacts of changing employment patterns and pension reforms on the future level of public pensions across birth cohorts in Germany. The analysis is based on a microsimulation model and a rich data set that combines household survey data from the German Socio-Economic Panel Study (SOEP) and process-produced microdata from the German pension insurance. We account for cohort effects in individual employment and unemployment affecting earnings over the life cycle as well as the differential impact of recent pension reforms. For individuals born between 1937 and 1971, cohort effects vary greatly by region, gender and education, and strongly affect life cycle earnings profiles. The largest effects can be observed for younger cohorts in East Germany and for the low educated. Using simulated life cycle employment and income profiles, we project gross future pensions across cohorts taking into account changing demographics and recent pension reforms. Simulations show that pension levels for East German men and women will fall dramatically among younger birth cohorts, not only because of policy reforms but also due to higher cumulated unemployment. For West German men, the small reduction of average pension levels among younger birth cohorts is mainly driven by the impact of pension reforms, while future pension levels of West German women are increasing or stable due to rising labour market participation of younger birth cohorts.

Suggested Citation

  • Geyer, Johannes & Steiner, Viktor, 2014. "Future public pensions and changing employment patterns across birth cohorts," Journal of Pension Economics and Finance, Cambridge University Press, vol. 13(2), pages 172-209, April.
    • Handle: RePEc:cup:jpenef:v:13:y:2014:i:02:p:172-209_00
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    Cited by:

    1. Fischer, Benjamin & Hügle, Dominik, 2020. "The private and fiscal returns to higher education: A simulation approach for a young German cohort," Discussion Papers 2020/21, Free University Berlin, School of Business & Economics.
    2. Andreas Thiemann, 2015. "Pension Wealth and Maternal Employment: Evidence from a Reform of the German Child Care Pension Benefit," Discussion Papers of DIW Berlin 1499, DIW Berlin, German Institute for Economic Research.
    3. Pfister, Mona & Lorenz, Svenja & Zwick, Thomas, 2018. "Calculation of pension entitlements in the sample of integrated labour market biographies (SIAB)," FDZ Methodenreport 201801_en, Institut für Arbeitsmarkt- und Berufsforschung (IAB), Nürnberg [Institute for Employment Research, Nuremberg, Germany].
    4. Corneo Giacomo, 2018. "Ein Staatsfonds, der eine soziale Dividende finanziert," Perspektiven der Wirtschaftspolitik, De Gruyter, vol. 19(2), pages 94-109, July.
    5. Glaubitz, Rick & Harnack-Eber, Astrid & Wetter, Miriam, 2022. "The gender gap in lifetime earnings: The role of parenthood," Discussion Papers 2022/3, Free University Berlin, School of Business & Economics.
    6. repec:iab:iabfme:201808(en is not listed on IDEAS
    7. Juan Pablo Atal & Hanming Fang & Martin Karlsson & Nicolas R. Ziebarth, 2020. "Long-Term Health Insurance: Theory Meets Evidence," PIER Working Paper Archive 20-009, Penn Institute for Economic Research, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania.
    8. Johannes Geyer, 2014. "Zukünftige Altersarmut," DIW Roundup: Politik im Fokus 25, DIW Berlin, German Institute for Economic Research.
    9. Lorenz, Svenja & Zwick, Thomas & Bruns, Mona, 2022. "Beware of the employer: Financial incentives for employees may fail to prolong old-age employment," The Journal of the Economics of Ageing, Elsevier, vol. 21(C).
    10. Juan Pablo Atal & Hanming Fang & Martin Karlsson & Nicolas R. Ziebarth, 2020. "German Long-Term Health Insurance: Theory Meets Evidence," NBER Working Papers 26870, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    11. repec:iab:iabfme:201801(en is not listed on IDEAS
    12. Schmied, Julian, 2023. "The replacement rate that maintains income satisfaction through retirement: The question of income-dependence," The Journal of the Economics of Ageing, Elsevier, vol. 26(C).
    13. Metzger, Christoph, 2016. "The German statutory pension scheme: Balance sheet, cross-sectional internal rates of return and implicit tax rates," FZG Discussion Papers 63, University of Freiburg, Research Center for Generational Contracts (FZG).
    14. Lorenz, Svenja & Pfister, Mona & Zwick, Thomas, 2018. "Identification of the statutory retirement dates in the Sample of Integrated Labour Market Biographies (SIAB)," FDZ Methodenreport 201808_en, Institut für Arbeitsmarkt- und Berufsforschung (IAB), Nürnberg [Institute for Employment Research, Nuremberg, Germany].
    15. Hänisch, Carsten & Klos, Jonas, 2016. "Long-run effects of career interruptions: A micro-simulation study," Discussion Paper Series 2016-03, University of Freiburg, Wilfried Guth Endowed Chair for Constitutional Political Economy and Competition Policy.
    16. Rick Glaubitz & Astrid Harnack-Eber & Miriam Wetter, 2022. "The Gender Gap in Lifetime Earnings: The Role of Parenthood," Discussion Papers of DIW Berlin 2001, DIW Berlin, German Institute for Economic Research.

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