IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/diw/diweos/diweos66.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Terrorism Induced Cross-Market Transmission of Shocks: A Case Study Using Intraday Data

Author

Listed:
  • Christos Kollias
  • Stephanos Papadamou
  • Costas Siriopoulos

Abstract

Terrorist incidents exert a negative, albeit generally short-lived, impact on markets and equity returns. Given the integration of global financial markets, mega-terrorist events also have a high contagion potential with their shock waves being transmitted across countries and markets. This paper investigates the cross-market transmission of the London Stock Exchange's reaction to the terrorist attacks of 2005. It focuses on how this reaction was transmitted to two other major European stock exchanges: Frankfurt and Paris. To this effect, high frequency data are used and multivariate GARCH models are employed. Findings reported herein indicate that the volatility of stock market returns is increased in all three cases.

Suggested Citation

  • Christos Kollias & Stephanos Papadamou & Costas Siriopoulos, 2012. "Terrorism Induced Cross-Market Transmission of Shocks: A Case Study Using Intraday Data," Economics of Security Working Paper Series 66, DIW Berlin, German Institute for Economic Research.
    • Handle: RePEc:diw:diweos:diweos66
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://www.diw.de/documents/publikationen/73/diw_01.c.404019.de/diw_econsec0066.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. William N. Goetzmann & Lingfeng Li & K. Geert Rouwenhorst, 2005. "Long-Term Global Market Correlations," The Journal of Business, University of Chicago Press, vol. 78(1), pages 1-38, January.
    2. Kollias, Christos & Papadamou, Stephanos & Stagiannis, Apostolos, 2011. "Terrorism and capital markets: The effects of the Madrid and London bomb attacks," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 20(4), pages 532-541, October.
    3. Roberto Rigobon, 2002. "Contagion: How to Measure It?," NBER Chapters, in: Preventing Currency Crises in Emerging Markets, pages 269-334, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    4. Fernandez, Viviana, 2008. "The war on terror and its impact on the long-term volatility of financial markets," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 17(1), pages 1-26.
    5. Christos Kollias & Catherine Kyrtsou & Stephanos Papadamou, 2011. "The Effects of Terrorism and War on the Oil and Prices Stock Indices Relationship," Economics of Security Working Paper Series 57, DIW Berlin, German Institute for Economic Research.
    6. Kollias, Christos & Manou, Efthalia & Papadamou, Stephanos & Stagiannis, Apostolos, 2011. "Stock markets and terrorist attacks: Comparative evidence from a large and a small capitalization market," European Journal of Political Economy, Elsevier, vol. 27(S1), pages 64-77.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Mira Nurmakhanova, 2019. "Exchange Rate and Stock Prices Interactions in Kazakhstan," Eurasian Journal of Economics and Finance, Eurasian Publications, vol. 7(2), pages 19-31.
    2. Andreas Brunhart, 2014. "Stock Market's Reactions to Revelation of Tax Evasion: An Empirical Assessment," Swiss Journal of Economics and Statistics (SJES), Swiss Society of Economics and Statistics (SSES), vol. 150(III), pages 161-190, September.
    3. Azza Bejaoui & Wajdi Frikha & Ahmed Jeribi, 2023. "On the dynamic connectedness between the G7 stock market indices and different asset classes: Fresh insights from the COVID-19 pandemic and Russia–Ukraine war," SN Business & Economics, Springer, vol. 3(11), pages 1-21, November.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Nicholas Apergis & Matteo Bonato & Rangan Gupta & Clement Kyei, 2016. "Does Geopolitical Risks Predict Stock Returns and Volatility of Leading Defense Companies? Evidence from a Nonparametric Approach," Working Papers 201671, University of Pretoria, Department of Economics.
    2. Balcilar, Mehmet & Bonato, Matteo & Demirer, Riza & Gupta, Rangan, 2018. "Geopolitical risks and stock market dynamics of the BRICS," Economic Systems, Elsevier, vol. 42(2), pages 295-306.
    3. Christos Kollias & Stephanos Papadamou & Costas Siriopoulos, 2013. "European Markets’ Reactions to Exogenous Shocks: A High Frequency Data Analysis of the 2005 London Bombings," IJFS, MDPI, vol. 1(4), pages 1-14, November.
    4. Elie Bouri & Riza Demirer & Rangan Gupta & Hardik A. Marfatia, 2019. "Geopolitical Risks and Movements in Islamic Bond and Equity Markets: A Note," Defence and Peace Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 30(3), pages 367-379, April.
    5. Christos Bouras & Christina Christou & Rangan Gupta & Tahir Suleman, 2020. "Geopolitical Risks, Returns, and Volatility in Emerging Stock Markets: Evidence from a Panel GARCH Model," Emerging Markets Finance and Trade, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 55(8), pages 1841-1856, July.
    6. Hatice Gaye Gencer & Sercan Demiralay, 2016. "The Contagion Effects on Real Economy: Emerging Markets during the Recent Crises," Journal for Economic Forecasting, Institute for Economic Forecasting, vol. 0(1), pages 104-121, March.
    7. Park, Jin Suk & Newaz, Mohammad Khaleq, 2018. "Do terrorist attacks harm financial markets? A meta-analysis of event studies and the determinants of adverse impact," Global Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 37(C), pages 227-247.
    8. Omar, Ayman M.A. & Lambe, Brendan J & Wisniewski, Tomasz Piotr, 2021. "Perceptions of the threat to national security and the stock market," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 186(C), pages 504-522.
    9. Liang, Chao & Wang, Lu & Duong, Duy, 2024. "More attention and better volatility forecast accuracy: How does war attention affect stock volatility predictability?," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 218(C), pages 1-19.
    10. repec:dau:papers:123456789/7748 is not listed on IDEAS
    11. Halkos, George & Managi, Shunsuke & Zisiadou, Argyro, 2017. "Analyzing the determinants of terrorist attacks and their market reactions," Economic Analysis and Policy, Elsevier, vol. 54(C), pages 57-73.
    12. Najam, Najam Ul Sabeeh & Mehmood, Arshad Mehmood, 2019. "The economic cost of terrorism and natural disasters: A deeper analysis of the financial market markets of Pakistan," MPRA Paper 92278, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    13. Wisniewski, Tomasz Piotr, 2016. "Is there a link between politics and stock returns? A literature survey," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 47(C), pages 15-23.
    14. Li, Sufang & Tu, Dalun & Zeng, Yan & Gong, Chenggang & Yuan, Di, 2022. "Does geopolitical risk matter in crude oil and stock markets? Evidence from disaggregated data," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 113(C).
    15. Segnon, Mawuli & Gupta, Rangan & Wilfling, Bernd, 2024. "Forecasting stock market volatility with regime-switching GARCH-MIDAS: The role of geopolitical risks," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 40(1), pages 29-43.
    16. Christos Kollias & Stephanos Papadamou & Vangelis Arvanitis, 2013. "Symposium - Does Terrorism Affect the Stock-Bond Covariance? Evidence from European Countries," Southern Economic Journal, Southern Economic Association, vol. 79(4), pages 832-848, April.
    17. Olbryś Joanna & Majewska Elżbieta, 2015. "Testing Integration Effects Between the Cee and U.S. Stock Markets During the 2007–2009 Global Financial Crisis," Folia Oeconomica Stetinensia, Sciendo, vol. 15(1), pages 101-113, June.
    18. Lee, Chi-Chuan & Lee, Chien-Chiang, 2020. "Insurance activity, real output, and geopolitical risk: Fresh evidence from BRICS," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 92(C), pages 207-215.
    19. Joanna Olbrys & Elzbieta Majewska, 2016. "Crisis periods and contagion effects in the CEE stock markets: the influence of the 2007 US subprime crisis," International Journal of Computational Economics and Econometrics, Inderscience Enterprises Ltd, vol. 6(2), pages 124-137.
    20. Christos Kollias & Stephanos Papadamou & Vangelis Arvanitis, 2013. "Does Terrorism Affect the Stock‐Bond Covariance? Evidence from European Countries," Southern Economic Journal, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 79(4), pages 832-848, April.
    21. Cepni, Oguzhan & Emirmahmutoglu, Furkan & Guney, Ibrahim Ethem & Yilmaz, Muhammed Hasan, 2023. "Do the carry trades respond to geopolitical risks? Evidence from BRICS countries," Economic Systems, Elsevier, vol. 47(2).

    More about this item

    Keywords

    terrorism; capital markets; contagion; multivariate GARCH;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • H56 - Public Economics - - National Government Expenditures and Related Policies - - - National Security and War
    • G1 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets
    • G15 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - International Financial Markets

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:diw:diweos:diweos66. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Bibliothek (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/diwbede.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.