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First and second births in first and second unions: a decomposition of fertility decline in Bulgaria and Russia since the 1989 economic and political transition

Author

Listed:
  • Martin Spielauer

    (Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany)

  • Elena Koytcheva

    (Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany)

  • Dora Kostova

    (Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany)

Abstract

Following the collapse of the communist regimes in Bulgaria and Russia, the two countries have experienced dramatic fertility decline. The aim of this paper is to examine the individual contribution of various factors that have contributed to the overall drop in first and second births. By means of microsimulation, we isolate the effect of changes observed in first and second birth risks in different life course situations as well as the impact of changes in union formation and dissolution on fertility. The study is based on hazard regression models estimated from GGS data. We find remarkable similarities in first and second birth behavior and changes in these behaviors over time in both countries. However, partnership behavior and trends differ considerably, causing a stronger fertility decline in Bulgaria due to delayed partnership formation. Nevertheless, in Russia unions are increasingly unstable, a process which, according to our findings, leads to longer birth intervals but has almost no impact on final birth outcome.

Suggested Citation

  • Martin Spielauer & Elena Koytcheva & Dora Kostova, 2007. "First and second births in first and second unions: a decomposition of fertility decline in Bulgaria and Russia since the 1989 economic and political transition," MPIDR Working Papers WP-2007-001, Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany.
    • Handle: RePEc:dem:wpaper:wp-2007-001
    DOI: 10.4054/MPIDR-WP-2007-001
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Dimiter Philipov, 2002. "Fertility in times of discontinuous societal change: the case of Central and Eastern Europe," MPIDR Working Papers WP-2002-024, Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany.
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    Cited by:

    1. Dora Kostova, 2007. "The emergence of cohabitation in a transitional socio-economic context: Evidence from Bulgaria and Russia," Demográfia English Edition, Hungarian Demographic Research Institute, vol. 50(5), pages 135-162.
    2. Maria Winkler-Dworak & Eva Beaujouan & Paola Di Giulio & Martin Spielauer, 2019. "Simulating Family Life Courses: An Application for Italy, Great Britain, and Scandinavia," VID Working Papers 1908, Vienna Institute of Demography (VID) of the Austrian Academy of Sciences in Vienna.
    3. Maria Winkler-Dworak & Eva Beaujouan & Paola Di Giulio & Martin Spielauer, 2021. "Simulating family life courses: An application for Italy, Great Britain, Norway, and Sweden," Demographic Research, Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany, vol. 44(1), pages 1-48.
    4. Michaela R. Kreyenfeld & Valerie Martin, 2011. "Economic conditions of stepfamilies from a cross-national perspective," MPIDR Working Papers WP-2011-010, Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Bulgaria; Russian Federation; fertility trends; microsimulation;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • J1 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demographic Economics
    • Z0 - Other Special Topics - - General

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