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Anticipatory analysis and its alternatives in life-course research. Part 1: Education and first childbearing

Author

Listed:
  • Jan M. Hoem

    (Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany)

  • Michaela R. Kreyenfeld

    (Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany)

Abstract

Procedures that seek to explain current behavior by future outcomes (anticipatory analysis) constitute a widespread but problematic approach in life-course analysis because they disturb the role of time and the temporal order of events. Nevertheless the practice is often used, not least because it easily produces useful summary measures like the median age at first childbearing and the per cent permanently childless in various educational groups, defined by ultimate attainment. We use an empirical example to demonstrate the issues involved and to propose an alternative "non-anticipatory" research strategy, which, however, does not equally easily provide summary measures. (Keywords: anticipatory analysis, conditioning on the future, fertility by educational attainment)

Suggested Citation

  • Jan M. Hoem & Michaela R. Kreyenfeld, 2006. "Anticipatory analysis and its alternatives in life-course research. Part 1: Education and first childbearing," MPIDR Working Papers WP-2006-006, Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany.
    • Handle: RePEc:dem:wpaper:wp-2006-006
    DOI: 10.4054/MPIDR-WP-2006-006
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Aart C. Liefbroer & Martine Corijn, 1999. "Who, What, Where, and When? Specifying the Impact of Educational Attainment and Labour Force Participation on Family Formation," European Journal of Population, Springer;European Association for Population Studies, vol. 15(1), pages 45-75, March.
    2. Steven Martin, 2000. "Diverging fertility among U.S. women who delay childbearing past age 30," Demography, Springer;Population Association of America (PAA), vol. 37(4), pages 523-533, November.
    3. Øystein Kravdal, 2004. "An Illustration of the Problems Caused by Incomplete Education Histories in Fertility Analyses," Demographic Research Special Collections, Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany, vol. 3(6), pages 135-154.
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    anticipatory analysis; conditioning on the future; fertility by educational attainment);
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • J1 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demographic Economics
    • Z0 - Other Special Topics - - General

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