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Dealing with Debt: The 1930's and the 1980's

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This paper analyzes the sovereign defaults of the 1930s and their implications for the debt crisis of the 1980s. It reports nine major findings. There is little evidence that financial markets have grown more sophisticated' over time, or that banks have a comparative advantage over the bond market in processing information. (2) Debt default in the 1930s depended on a combination of factors,. including the magnitude of the external shocks, the level of debt, and: the: economic policy response , as well as on a range, of: noneconomic considerations. (3) Countries which interrupted service recovered more quickly from the Great Depression than countries which resisted default. This contrasts with the experience of the 1980s, when no clearcut relationship exists (4) There is little evidence that countries which defaulted in the 19305 suffered inferior capital market access subsequently. (S} The readjustment of defaulted debts was protracted: the analogy with Chapter 11 corporate bankruptcy proceedings is no more applicable to the 1930s than to the 1980s. (6) Although default led in some cases to a substantial reduction of transfers from debtors to creditors, on balance returns on sovereign loans compared favorably with returns on domestic investments. (7) Creditor-country governments did more in the 'thirties than in the 'eighties to accelerate the settlement process. (3) Global schemes analogous to the Baker Plan were widely proposed but never implemented. (9) In contrast, market-based debt reduction in the form G debt buybacks played a useful role in the resolution of the crisis.
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(This abstract was borrowed from another version of this item.)

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  • Eichengreen, B. & Portes, R., 1989. "Dealing with Debt: The 1930's and the 1980's," DELTA Working Papers 89-04, DELTA (Ecole normale supérieure).
  • Handle: RePEc:del:abcdef:89-04
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    1. Fishlow, Albert, 1985. "Lessons from the past: capital markets during the 19th century and the interwar period," International Organization, Cambridge University Press, vol. 39(3), pages 383-439, July.
    2. Sule Ozler, 1988. "Evolution of Commerical Bank Lending to Developing Countries," UCLA Economics Working Papers 497, UCLA Department of Economics.
    3. Barry Eichengreen and Richard Portes., 1988. "Settling Defaults in the Era of Bond Finance," Economics Working Papers 8885, University of California at Berkeley.
    4. Stanley Fischer, 1987. "Resolving the International Debt Crisis," NBER Working Papers 2373, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    5. Eichengreen, Barry & Portes, Richard, 1986. "The Anatomy of Financial Crises," CEPR Discussion Papers 130, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    6. Anne O. Krueger, 1978. "Foreign Trade Regimes and Economic Development: Liberalization Attempts and Consequences," NBER Books, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc, number krue78-1.
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    Cited by:

    1. Michael D. Bordo, 2017. "An Historical Perspective on the Quest for Financial Stability and the Monetary Policy Regime," Economics Working Papers 17108, Hoover Institution, Stanford University.
    2. Marc Flandreau & Juan H. Flores & Norbert Gaillard & Sebastián Nieto-Parra, 2010. "The End of Gatekeeping: Underwriters and the Quality of Sovereign Bond Markets, 1815–2007," NBER Chapters, in: NBER International Seminar on Macroeconomics 2009, pages 53-92, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    3. Javier Díaz-Cassou & Aitor Erce-Domínguez & Juan J. Vázquez-Zamora, 2008. "The role of the IMF in recent sovereign debt restructurings: Implications for the policy of lending into arrears," Occasional Papers 0805, Banco de España.
    4. Mr. Jochen R. Andritzky & Julian Schumacher, 2019. "Long-Term Returns in Distressed Sovereign Bond Markets: How Did Investors Fare?," IMF Working Papers 2019/138, International Monetary Fund.
    5. Paul R. Krugman & Thomas Enders & William R. Rhodes, 1994. "LDC Debt Policy," NBER Chapters, in: American Economic Policy in the 1980s, pages 691-740, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    6. Reinhart, Carmen & Trebesch, Christoph, 2014. "A Distant Mirror of Debt, Default, and Relief," CEPR Discussion Papers 10195, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    7. Balazs Szentes & Natalia Kovrijnykh, 2005. "A Theory of Debt Overhang and Buyback," 2005 Meeting Papers 447, Society for Economic Dynamics.
    8. Jean-Pierre Allegret, 2015. "6. Quelles sont les causes et les conséquences d’un défaut sur la dette publique ?," Regards croisés sur l'économie, La Découverte, vol. 0(2), pages 101-116.
    9. Mitchener, Kris & Trebesch, Christoph, 2021. "Sovereign Debt in the 21st Century: Looking Backward, Looking Forward," CEPR Discussion Papers 15935, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    10. Javier Díaz-Cassou & Aitor Erce-Domínguez & Juan J. Vázquez-Zamora, 2008. "Recent episodes of sovereign debt restructurings. A case-study approach," Occasional Papers 0804, Banco de España.
    11. Anna Gelpern & Ugo Panizza, 2022. "Enough Potential Repudiation: Economic and Legal Aspects of Sovereign Debt in the Pandemic Era," Annual Review of Economics, Annual Reviews, vol. 14(1), pages 545-570, August.
    12. Barrett, Christopher B., 1996. "The Economic And Ethical Ambiguities Of African Debt Forgiveness," Economics Research Institute, ERI Study Papers 28345, Utah State University, Economics Department.
    13. Bowe, M. & Dean, J.W., 1997. "Has the Market Solved the Sovereign-Debt Crisis?," Princeton Studies in International Economics 83, International Economics Section, Departement of Economics Princeton University,.
    14. Franke, Günter, 1990. "Avenues for the reduction of LDC-debt: An institutional analysis," Discussion Papers, Series II 100, University of Konstanz, Collaborative Research Centre (SFB) 178 "Internationalization of the Economy".
    15. de Aghion, Beatriz Armendariz & de Hinestrosa, Patricia Armendariz, 1995. "Debt relief, growth and price stability in Mexico," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 48(1), pages 135-149, October.
    16. Nunnenkamp, Peter, 1989. "Capital drain, debt relief, and creditworthiness of developing countries," Kiel Working Papers 379, Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW Kiel).

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