IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/deg/conpap/c016_061.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Economic Growth and Demography

Author

Listed:
  • Yuri Yegorov

Abstract

The goal of this article is to discuss the interaction between Russian demographic problems and its specialization on the extraction of natural resources. We have several simultaneous processes since 1990s: specialization in extraction of natural resources and demographic problem caused by low fertility in 1990s. Russia has no labor scarcity at present, but will face it in 10 years. Also, its proven oil resources are only for 20 years, and this calls for a necessity of economic diversification. While resource-extraction technology is less labor intensive, movement to technological development will require more labor, and this labor should be skilled. Thus, Russia faces a problem of optimal transition from resource extraction to technological development with simultaneous labor training in the environment of its growing scarcity. Capital from resource export can be used for both investment in new technologies and demographic recovery. Fertility is also endogenous here, depending on consumption level. The policy implications are very important. While there is little reason for boosting fertility initially (since extraction sector is not labor intensive), demography has high inertia, and it will be too late after, especially when oil resources will be close to depletion. The formal modelling is done is the framework of two sector growth model. A sequence of models of dynamic growth, starting from more simple towards more complex, is suggested.

Suggested Citation

  • Yuri Yegorov, 2011. "Economic Growth and Demography," DEGIT Conference Papers c016_061, DEGIT, Dynamics, Economic Growth, and International Trade.
    • Handle: RePEc:deg:conpap:c016_061
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://degit.sam.sdu.dk/papers/degit_16/c016_061.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Ksenia Yudaeva, 2002. "Globalization and Inequality in CIS Countries: Role of Institutions," Working Papers w0025, Center for Economic and Financial Research (CEFIR).
    2. Robert J. Barro, 2013. "Inflation and Economic Growth," Annals of Economics and Finance, Society for AEF, vol. 14(1), pages 121-144, May.
    3. Atkinson,Anthony Barnes & Micklewright,John, 1992. "Economic Transformation in Eastern Europe and the Distribution of Income," Cambridge Books, Cambridge University Press, number 9780521438827.
    4. Ksenia Yudaeva, 2002. "Globalization and Inequality in CIS Countries: Role of Institutions," Working Papers w0025, New Economic School (NES).
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Mihaly Simai, 2006. "Poverty and Inequality in Eastern Europe and the CIS Transition Economies," Working Papers 17, United Nations, Department of Economics and Social Affairs.
    2. Sergey BLINOV, 2017. "Inflation and economic growth," Journal of Economics Library, KSP Journals, vol. 4(3), pages 345-358, September.
    3. repec:zbw:rwidps:0030 is not listed on IDEAS
    4. Kristinn Hermannsson & Patrizio Lecca, 2016. "Human Capital in Economic Development: From Labour Productivity to Macroeconomic Impact," Economic Papers, The Economic Society of Australia, vol. 35(1), pages 24-36, March.
    5. Gonzalez-Eiras, Martín & Niepelt, Dirk, 2012. "Ageing, government budgets, retirement, and growth," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 56(1), pages 97-115.
    6. Vieira, Flávio & MacDonald, Ronald & Damasceno, Aderbal, 2012. "The role of institutions in cross-section income and panel data growth models: A deeper investigation on the weakness and proliferation of instruments," Journal of Comparative Economics, Elsevier, vol. 40(1), pages 127-140.
    7. Boucekkine, Raouf & del Rio, Fernando & Licandro, Omar, 2005. "Obsolescence and modernization in the growth process," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 77(1), pages 153-171, June.
    8. Willem Thorbecke, 2002. "A Dual Mandate for the Federal Reserve: The Pursuit of Price Stability and Full Employment," Eastern Economic Journal, Eastern Economic Association, vol. 28(2), pages 255-268, Spring.
    9. Brent Neiman, 2014. "The Global Decline of the Labor Share," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 129(1), pages 61-103.
    10. JOrge Alonso Lotero Contreras & Sergio Restrepo & Liliana Yaned Franco Vásquez, 2000. "Modelos de desarrollo y convergencia interregional de la productividad industrial en Colombia," Lecturas de Economía, Universidad de Antioquia, Departamento de Economía, issue 52, pages 51-85, Enero Jun.
    11. Yew-Kwang Ng & Xiaokai Yang, 2005. "Specialization, Information, And Growth: A Sequential Equilibrium Analysis," World Scientific Book Chapters, in: An Inframarginal Approach To Trade Theory, chapter 20, pages 447-474, World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd..
    12. Saaed, A.A.J., 2007. "Inflation and Economic Growth in Kuwait: 1985-2005. Evidence from Co-Integration and Error Correction Model," Applied Econometrics and International Development, Euro-American Association of Economic Development, vol. 7(1).
    13. Mare Sarr & Erwin Bulte & Chris Meissner & Tim Swanson, 2011. "On the looting of nations," Public Choice, Springer, vol. 148(3), pages 353-380, September.
    14. Philip R. Lane, 1999. "What Determines the Nominal Exchange Rate? Some Cross Sectional Evidence," Canadian Journal of Economics, Canadian Economics Association, vol. 32(1), pages 118-138, February.
    15. Juan Pineiro Chousa & Haider Ali Khan & Davit N. Melikyan & Artur Tamazian, 2005. "Institutional and Financial Determinants of Development: New Evidence from Advanced and Emerging Markets," CIRJE F-Series CIRJE-F-326, CIRJE, Faculty of Economics, University of Tokyo.
    16. Neelam Timsina, 2016. "Determinants of Bank Lending in Nepal," NRB Economic Review, Nepal Rastra Bank, Economic Research Department, vol. 28(2), pages 19-42, October.
    17. Aysit Tansel & Nil Demet Güngör, 2016. "Gender Effects of Education on Economic Development in Turkey," World Scientific Book Chapters, in: Nadereh Chamlou & Massoud Karshenas (ed.), Women, Work and Welfare in the Middle East and North Africa The Role of Socio-demographics, Entrepreneurship and Public Policies, chapter 3, pages 57-86, World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd..
    18. Manuel Funke & Moritz Schularick & Christoph Trebesch, 2023. "Populist Leaders and the Economy," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 113(12), pages 3249-3288, December.
    19. Günther Rehme, 2007. "Education, Economic Growth and Measured Income Inequality," Economica, London School of Economics and Political Science, vol. 74(295), pages 493-514, August.
    20. Andersson, Fredrik N.G. & Edgerton, David L. & Opper, Sonja, 2013. "A Matter of Time: Revisiting Growth Convergence in China," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 45(C), pages 239-251.
    21. Albert J.F. Yang & William N. Trumbull & Chin Wei Yang & Bwo‐Nung Huang, 2011. "On The Relationship Between Military Expenditure, Threat, And Economic Growth: A Nonlinear Approach," Defence and Peace Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 22(4), pages 449-457, April.

    More about this item

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:deg:conpap:c016_061. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Jan Pedersen (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/iehhsdk.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.