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Paraguay: Análisis de sostenibilidad fiscal

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  • Cabral Lassalle, Guillermo

Abstract

En este trabajo se analiza la sostenibilidad de la deuda de Paraguay. La deuda de Paraguay mostraba una evolución creciente desde el 8,1% del PIB en 2011 al 22,7% del PIB en 2019, nivel bajo para estándares internacionales. Por la pandemia del COIVD-19 aumentan el déficit fiscal y la deuda que, a junio de 2020, llega a 31,1% del PIB. Por ello se hace necesario evaluar en qué medida el deterioro de las finanzas públicas puede impactar la sostenibilidad de la deuda. Los ejercicios de proyección de la deuda que sugieren que la trayectoria de la deuda es sostenible. En el escenario base, la deuda aumentaría hasta valores cercanos al 37,5% del PIB en 2023 para el Sector Público para luego descender, en la medida en que el crecimiento se recupera y se retoma la regla fiscal. Según el análisis de sensibilidad, no lograr la reducción esperada del déficit y una devaluación serían los mayores riesgos.

Suggested Citation

  • Cabral Lassalle, Guillermo, 2021. "Paraguay: Análisis de sostenibilidad fiscal," Sector/thematic working papers 1684, CAF Development Bank Of Latinamerica.
    • Handle: RePEc:dbl:dblstp:1684
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    References listed on IDEAS

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