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Determinants of Credit Risk in the Banking system in Sub-Saharan Africa

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  • Trust R. Mpofu

    (School of Economics, University of Cape Town)

  • Eftychia Nikolaidou

    (School of Economics, University of Cape Town)

Abstract

This paper investigates the macroeconomic determinants of credit risk in the banking system of 22 Sub-Saharan African economies. We measure credit risk as the ratio of non-performing loans to total gross loans (NPLs) and employ a dynamic panel data approach over the period 2000-2016. Using a variety of specifications, the results show that an increase in real GDP growth rate has a statistically and economically significant reducing effect on the ratio of non-performing loans to total gross loans. Furthermore, inflation rate, domestic credit to private sector by banks as a percent of GDP, trade openness, VIX as a proxy of global volatility, and the 2008/2009 global financial crisis, all have positive and significant impact on NPLs.

Suggested Citation

  • Trust R. Mpofu & Eftychia Nikolaidou, 2018. "Determinants of Credit Risk in the Banking system in Sub-Saharan Africa," School of Economics Macroeconomic Discussion Paper Series 2018-04, School of Economics, University of Cape Town.
    • Handle: RePEc:ctn:dpaper:2018-04
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    Cited by:

    1. Iakimenko, Irina & Semenova, Maria & Zimin, Eugenii, 2022. "The more the better? Information sharing and credit risk," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 80(C).
    2. Matabaro Borauzima, Luc & Muller, Aline, 2023. "Bank risk-taking and competition in developing banking markets: Does efficiency level matter? Evidence from Africa," Emerging Markets Review, Elsevier, vol. 55(C).
    3. Koranteng, Barbara & You, Kefei, 2024. "Fintech and financial stability: Evidence from spatial analysis for 25 countries," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 93(C).
    4. Obiora, Sandra Chukwudumebi & Zeng, Yong & Li, Qiang & Liu, Hao & Adjei, Peter Darko & Csordas, Tamas, 2022. "The effect of economic growth on banking system performance: An interregional and comparative study of Sub-Saharan Africa and developed economies," Economic Systems, Elsevier, vol. 46(1).
    5. Ling, Coco Siu Yin, 2019. "Financial risk and its performance: A study on Apollo Food Holdings Berhad in Malaysia," MPRA Paper 97889, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 18 Nov 2019.
    6. Rimsha Shahid & Rimsha Shahid & Hammad Badar & Aqsa Iftikhar & Sidra Ghulam Muhammad & Dr. Muhammad Navid Iqbal & Zulfiqar Hussain Awan & Faisal Nadeem Shah, 2024. "Influence on Banks' Credit Risk Through Monetary Policy Instruments: A Study of Listed Commercial Banks in Pakistan," Bulletin of Business and Economics (BBE), Research Foundation for Humanity (RFH), vol. 13(2), pages 255-265.
    7. Faridah Najuna Misman & Wahida Ahmad & Noor Sufiawati Khairani & Nur Hazimah Amran, 2020. "Credit Risk, Islamic Contracts and Ownership Status: Evidence From Malaysian Islamic Banks," International Journal of Financial Research, International Journal of Financial Research, Sciedu Press, vol. 11(3), pages 106-114, June.
    8. Djebali, Nesrine & Zaghdoudi, Khemais, 2020. "Threshold effects of liquidity risk and credit risk on bank stability in the MENA region," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 42(5), pages 1049-1063.
    9. Odunayo Magret Olarewaju, 2020. "Investigating the factors affecting nonperforming loans in commercial banks: The case of African lower middle‐income countries," African Development Review, African Development Bank, vol. 32(4), pages 744-757, December.
    10. Uquillas, Adriana & Tonato, Ronny, 2022. "Inter-portfolio credit risk contagion including macroeconomic and financial factors: A case study for Ecuador," Economic Analysis and Policy, Elsevier, vol. 73(C), pages 299-320.
    11. Andreia Araújo & Filipe Portela & Filipe Alvelos & Saulo Ruiz, 2022. "Optimization of the System of Allocation of Overdue Loans in a Sub-Saharan Africa Microfinance Institution," Future Internet, MDPI, vol. 14(6), pages 1-19, May.
    12. Rim Boussaada & Abdelaziz Hakimi & Majdi Karmani, 2022. "Is there a threshold effect in the liquidity risk–non‐performing loans relationship? A PSTR approach for MENA banks," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 27(2), pages 1886-1898, April.
    13. Michael Adusei & Ngozi Adeleye & Beatrice Sarpong‐Danquah, 2022. "Legal cost of contract enforcement and nonperforming loans: Is credit information sharing relevant?," Managerial and Decision Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 43(6), pages 2501-2514, September.
    14. Mehmet Levent Erdas & Zeynep Ezanoglu, 2022. "How Do Bank-Specific Factors Impact Non-Performing Loans: Evidence from G20 Countries," Journal of Central Banking Theory and Practice, Central bank of Montenegro, vol. 11(2), pages 97-122.
    15. Asif, Zainab & Chinzara, Zivanemoyo & Lahiri, Radhika, 2023. "The role of risk and institutions in the adoption and diffusion of technologies: Evidence from Sub-Saharan Africa," Economic Analysis and Policy, Elsevier, vol. 77(C), pages 16-33.
    16. Tringa Danca Hoti & Atdhetar Gara & Besnik Fetai & Arber Hoti, 2024. "Analyzing Credit Risk Factors: A Western Balkans Case Study," Economic Studies journal, Bulgarian Academy of Sciences - Economic Research Institute, issue 8, pages 78-90.

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