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Sovereign risk and belief-driven fluctuations in the euro area

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  • Corsetti, Giancarlo
  • Müller, Gernot
  • Kuester, Keith
  • Meier, André

Abstract

Sovereign risk premia in several euro area countries have risen markedly since 2008, driving up credit spreads in the private sector as well. We propose a New Keynesian model of a two-region monetary union that accounts for this "sovereign risk channel." The model is calibrated to the euro area as of mid-2012. We show that a combination of sovereign risk in one region and strongly procyclical fiscal policy at the aggregate level exacerbates the risk of belief-driven deflationary downturns. The model provides an argument in favor of coordinated, asymmetric fiscal stances as a way to prevent self-fulfilling debt crises.

Suggested Citation

  • Corsetti, Giancarlo & Müller, Gernot & Kuester, Keith & Meier, André, 2013. "Sovereign risk and belief-driven fluctuations in the euro area," CEPR Discussion Papers 9723, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    • Handle: RePEc:cpr:ceprdp:9723
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Sovereign risk channel; Monetary union; Euro area; Zero lower bound; risk premium; Pooling of sovereign risk;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E62 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook - - - Fiscal Policy; Modern Monetary Theory
    • F41 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - Open Economy Macroeconomics
    • F42 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - International Policy Coordination and Transmission

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