IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/cte/wsrepe/6284.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Modelling adaptive complex behaviour with an application to the stock markets dynamics

Author

Listed:
  • Aparicio, Felipe M.

Abstract

In this paper we review a simple agent-based model of adaptive complex behaviour that shows how the interaction of different agent's profit-oriented decisions leads to a wide spectra of organizational possibilities. We comment on some potential applications of this model to the social and life sciences, and later focus on the modelling of the stock market dynamics. We show how some ~f the features of stock price series, and in particular extreme events such as speculative bubbles and crashes, can be obtained when certain conditions are satisfied by most of the investors' preferences.

Suggested Citation

  • Aparicio, Felipe M., 1998. "Modelling adaptive complex behaviour with an application to the stock markets dynamics," DES - Working Papers. Statistics and Econometrics. WS 6284, Universidad Carlos III de Madrid. Departamento de Estadística.
    • Handle: RePEc:cte:wsrepe:6284
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://e-archivo.uc3m.es/rest/api/core/bitstreams/f937a04c-ca4e-424d-9d78-5cc71f1a994d/content
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Baumol, William J & Benhabib, Jess, 1989. "Chaos: Significance, Mechanism, and Economic Applications," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 3(1), pages 77-105, Winter.
    2. Jean-Michel Grandmont, 1991. "Temporary Equilibrium: Money, Expectations and Dynamics," International Economic Association Series, in: Lionel W. McKenzie & Stefano Zamagni (ed.), Value and Capital: Fifty Years Later, chapter 1, pages 3-30, Palgrave Macmillan.
    3. Lucas, Robert E, Jr, 1978. "Asset Prices in an Exchange Economy," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 46(6), pages 1429-1445, November.
    4. Granger, C. W. J., 1980. "Long memory relationships and the aggregation of dynamic models," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 14(2), pages 227-238, October.
    5. Radner, Roy, 1996. "Bounded Rationality, Indeterminacy, and the Theory of the Firm," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 106(438), pages 1360-1373, September.
    6. N/A, 1990. "Local authority power generation," Local Economy, London South Bank University, vol. 5(1), pages 74-76, May.
    7. Elster, Jon, 1996. "Rationality and the Emotions," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 106(438), pages 1386-1397, September.
    8. Christopher K. Ma & William H. Dare & Darla R. Donaldson, 1990. "Testing rationality in futures markets," Journal of Futures Markets, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 10(2), pages 137-152, April.
    9. Poterba, James M. & Summers, Lawrence H., 1988. "Mean reversion in stock prices : Evidence and Implications," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 22(1), pages 27-59, October.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Gil-Alana, L.A., 2006. "Fractional integration in daily stock market indexes," Review of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 15(1), pages 28-48.
    2. William A. Brock & Blake LeBaron, 1990. "Liquidity Constraints in Production-Based Asset-Pricing Models," NBER Chapters, in: Asymmetric Information, Corporate Finance, and Investment, pages 231-256, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    3. Ravi Kashyap, 2016. "Solving the Equity Risk Premium Puzzle and Inching Towards a Theory of Everything," Papers 1604.04872, arXiv.org, revised Sep 2019.
    4. Javid, Attiya Yasmin & Ahmad, Eatzaz, 2008. "Testing multifactor capital asset pricing model in case of Pakistani market," MPRA Paper 37341, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    5. Annina Kaltenbrunner & Machiko Nissanke, 2009. "The Case for an Intermediate Exchange Rate Regime with Endogenizing Market Structures and Capital Mobility: The Empirical Study of Brazil," WIDER Working Paper Series RP2009-29, World Institute for Development Economic Research (UNU-WIDER).
    6. Jay Squalli, 2006. "A non-parametric assessment of weak-form efficiency in the UAE financial markets," Applied Financial Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 16(18), pages 1365-1373.
    7. Guglielmo Maria Caporale & Luis Gil-Alana, 2011. "The weekly structure of US stock prices," Applied Financial Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 21(23), pages 1757-1764.
    8. Golinski, Adam & Madeira, Joao & Rambaccussing, Dooruj, 2014. "Fractional Integration of the Price-Dividend Ratio in a Present-Value Model," MPRA Paper 58554, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    9. Mordecai Kurz & Hehui Jin & Maurizio Motolese, 2005. "Determinants of stock market volatility and risk premia," Annals of Finance, Springer, vol. 1(2), pages 109-147, July.
    10. Lars Tegtmeier, 2021. "Testing the Efficiency of Globally Listed Private Equity Markets," JRFM, MDPI, vol. 14(7), pages 1-16, July.
    11. Onali, Enrico & Goddard, John, 2009. "Unifractality and multifractality in the Italian stock market," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 18(4), pages 154-163, September.
    12. Jamsheed Shorish & Stephen E. Spear, 2005. "Shaking the tree: an agency-theoretic model of asset pricing," Annals of Finance, Springer, vol. 1(1), pages 51-72, January.
    13. Tim Bollerslev & Robert J. Hodrick, 1992. "Financial Market Efficiency Tests," NBER Working Papers 4108, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    14. Malinvaud, Edmond, 1992. "Implications macroéconomiques des théories microéconomiques modernes," L'Actualité Economique, Société Canadienne de Science Economique, vol. 68(1), pages 11-22, mars et j.
    15. Jeffrey E. Jarrett, 2008. "Predicting Daily Stock Returns: A Lengthy Study of the Hong Kong and Tokyo Stock Exchanges," International Journal of Business and Economics, School of Management Development, Feng Chia University, Taichung, Taiwan, vol. 7(1), pages 37-51, April.
    16. Collard, Fabrice & Feve, Patrick & Ghattassi, Imen, 2006. "Predictability and habit persistence," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 30(11), pages 2217-2260, November.
    17. Nengjiu Ju & Jianjun Miao, 2012. "Ambiguity, Learning, and Asset Returns," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 80(2), pages 559-591, March.
    18. Rodriguez, Juan Carlos, 2006. "Consumption, the persistence of shocks, and asset price volatility," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 53(8), pages 1741-1760, November.
    19. John B. Donaldson & Rajnish Mehra, 2021. "Average crossing time: An alternative characterization of mean aversion and reversion," Quantitative Economics, Econometric Society, vol. 12(3), pages 903-944, July.
    20. Mordecai Kurz & Maurizio Motolese, "undated". "Endogenous Uncertainty and Market Volatility," Working Papers 99005, Stanford University, Department of Economics.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    chaos;

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:cte:wsrepe:6284. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Ana Poveda (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://portal.uc3m.es/portal/page/portal/dpto_estadistica .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.