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On the relationship of country geopolitical risk on energy inflation

Author

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  • De Oliveira Amado, Cristina Alexandra
  • Garrón Vedia, Ignacio
  • Lopes Moreira da Veiga, María Helena

Abstract

This paper addresses the efect of country geopolitical risk on energy inflation by employing a methodology that combines fixed efects panel quantile regressions and local projections. The panel covers country-level indicators for 16 OECD countries from January 1990 to December 2022. Results show that adverse country-specific geopolitical events are associated with upside risks on energy inflation whereas the analysis reveals insignificant efects for both the median and left tail of energy inflation distribution.

Suggested Citation

  • De Oliveira Amado, Cristina Alexandra & Garrón Vedia, Ignacio & Lopes Moreira da Veiga, María Helena, 2024. "On the relationship of country geopolitical risk on energy inflation," DES - Working Papers. Statistics and Econometrics. WS 45113, Universidad Carlos III de Madrid. Departamento de Estadística.
    • Handle: RePEc:cte:wsrepe:45113
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Dario Caldara & Matteo Iacoviello, 2022. "Measuring Geopolitical Risk," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 112(4), pages 1194-1225, April.
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    3. Ha, Jongrim & Kose, M. Ayhan & Ohnsorge, Franziska, 2023. "One-stop source: A global database of inflation," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 137(C).
    4. Lutz Kilian, 2009. "Not All Oil Price Shocks Are Alike: Disentangling Demand and Supply Shocks in the Crude Oil Market," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 99(3), pages 1053-1069, June.
    5. Yang, Tianle & Dong, Qingyuan & Du, Min & Du, Qunyang, 2023. "Geopolitical risks, oil price shocks and inflation: Evidence from a TVP–SV–VAR approach," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 127(PB).
    6. Regis Barnichon & Christian Brownlees, 2019. "Impulse Response Estimation by Smooth Local Projections," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 101(3), pages 522-530, July.
    7. Christiane Baumeister & James D. Hamilton, 2019. "Structural Interpretation of Vector Autoregressions with Incomplete Identification: Revisiting the Role of Oil Supply and Demand Shocks," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 109(5), pages 1873-1910, May.
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Geopolitical risk;

    JEL classification:

    • C22 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes
    • C23 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Models with Panel Data; Spatio-temporal Models
    • E31 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Price Level; Inflation; Deflation
    • Q40 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Energy - - - General

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