IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/cte/wbrepe/7028.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

A general equilibrium approach to the stock returns and real activity relationship

Author

Listed:
  • Restoy, Fernando

Abstract

This paper brings together two separate and important topics in finance: the predictability of aggregated stock returns and the intertemporal asset pricing models. We present empirical evidence about the predictability of stock returns with a sample of OECD economies and investigate whether such evidence is consistent with a simple general equilibrium model. Our framework allow us to formalize the extensively documented empirical relationship between asset returns and real activity. The principal parameters in this relationship are the relative risk aversion and the elasticity of intertemporal substitution for the first moment of the returns and only the elasticity of substitution for the second moments. Except for the United States annual case, the puzzle of volatility remains in our model.

Suggested Citation

  • Restoy, Fernando, 1997. "A general equilibrium approach to the stock returns and real activity relationship," DEE - Working Papers. Business Economics. WB 7028, Universidad Carlos III de Madrid. Departamento de Economía de la Empresa.
    • Handle: RePEc:cte:wbrepe:7028
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://e-archivo.uc3m.es/rest/api/core/bitstreams/66dd546a-7a9c-4719-8dce-e3d9c3e87f2d/content
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Campbell, John Y, 1990. "Measuring the Persistence of Expected Returns," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 80(2), pages 43-47, May.
    2. repec:bla:jfinan:v:43:y:1988:i:3:p:661-76 is not listed on IDEAS
    3. Campbell, J.Y. & Shiller, R.J., 1988. "Stock Prices, Earnings And Expected Dividends," Papers 334, Princeton, Department of Economics - Econometric Research Program.
    4. Barro, Robert J, 1990. "The Stock Market and Investment," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 3(1), pages 115-131.
    5. John Y. Campbell, Robert J. Shiller, 1988. "The Dividend-Price Ratio and Expectations of Future Dividends and Discount Factors," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 1(3), pages 195-228.
    6. Bernard Dumas & Campbell R. Harvey & Pierre Ruiz, 1997. "Are Common Swings in International Stock Returns Justified by Subsequent Changes in National Outputs ?," Working Papers hal-00605596, HAL.
    7. Chen, Nai-Fu, 1991. "Financial Investment Opportunities and the Macroeconomy," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 46(2), pages 529-554, June.
    8. Balvers, Ronald J & Cosimano, Thomas F & McDonald, Bill, 1990. "Predicting Stock Returns in an Efficient Market," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 45(4), pages 1109-1128, September.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Rodriguez, Rosa & Restoy, Fernando & Pena, J. Ignacio, 2002. "Can output explain the predictability and volatility of stock returns?," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 21(2), pages 163-182, April.
    2. Fernando Rubio, 2005. "Estrategias Cuantitativas De Valor Y Retornos Por Accion De Largo," Finance 0503029, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    3. Kothari, S. P., 2001. "Capital markets research in accounting," Journal of Accounting and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 31(1-3), pages 105-231, September.
    4. Laopodis, Nikiforos T., 2016. "Industry returns, market returns and economic fundamentals: Evidence for the United States," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 53(C), pages 89-106.
    5. Fernando Rubio, 2005. "Eficiencia De Mercado, Administracion De Carteras De Fondos Y Behavioural Finance," Finance 0503028, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 23 Jul 2005.
    6. Sellin, Peter, 1998. "Monetary Policy and the Stock Market: Theory and Empirical Evidence," Working Paper Series 72, Sveriges Riksbank (Central Bank of Sweden).
    7. Wong, Michael Chak-sham & Cheung, Yan-Leung, 1999. "The practice of investment management in Hong Kong: market forecasting and stock selection," Omega, Elsevier, vol. 27(4), pages 451-465, August.
    8. Long Chen & Lu Zhang, 2009. "The stock market and aggregate employment," NBER Working Papers 15219, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    9. Jorgensen, Bjorn & Li, Jing & Sadka, Gil, 2012. "Earnings dispersion and aggregate stock returns," Journal of Accounting and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 53(1), pages 1-20.
    10. Yunhao Chen & Xiaoquan Jiang & Bong-Soo Lee, 2015. "Long-Term Evidence on the Effect of Aggregate Earnings on Prices," Financial Management, Financial Management Association International, vol. 44(2), pages 323-351, June.
    11. Michael McAleer & John Suen & Wing Keung Wong, 2016. "Profiteering from the Dot-Com Bubble, Subprime Crisis and Asian Financial Crisis," The Japanese Economic Review, Japanese Economic Association, vol. 67(3), pages 257-279, September.
    12. Jank, Stephan, 2012. "Mutual fund flows, expected returns, and the real economy," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 36(11), pages 3060-3070.
    13. Nasseh, Alireza & Strauss, Jack, 2000. "Stock prices and domestic and international macroeconomic activity: a cointegration approach," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 40(2), pages 229-245.
    14. Campbell, John Y & Ammer, John, 1993. "What Moves the Stock and Bond Markets? A Variance Decomposition for Long-Term Asset Returns," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 48(1), pages 3-37, March.
    15. Steven A. Sharpe, 1999. "Stock prices, expected returns, and inflation," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 1999-02, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    16. Owen Lamont, "undated". "Earnings and Expected Returns," CRSP working papers 345, Center for Research in Security Prices, Graduate School of Business, University of Chicago.
    17. Peter Sellin, 2001. "Monetary Policy and the Stock Market: Theory and Empirical Evidence," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 15(4), pages 491-541, September.
    18. Leonid Kogan & Raman Uppal, "undated". "Risk Aversion and Optimal Portfolio Policies in Partial and General Equilibrium Economies," Rodney L. White Center for Financial Research Working Papers 13-00, Wharton School Rodney L. White Center for Financial Research.
    19. Lettau, Martin & Ludvigson, Sydney, 2002. "Time-varying risk premia and the cost of capital: An alternative implication of the Q theory of investment," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 49(1), pages 31-66, January.
    20. Campbell, John Y, 1991. "A Variance Decomposition for Stock Returns," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 101(405), pages 157-179, March.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Generalized isoelastic preferences;

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:cte:wbrepe:7028. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Ana Poveda (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.business.uc3m.es/es/index .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.