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Monetary policy risk: Rules vs. discretion

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  • Backus, David
  • Zin, Stanley E.
  • Chernov, Mikhail
  • Zviadadze, Irina

Abstract

Long-run asset-pricing restrictions in a macro term-structure model identify discretionary monetary policy separately from a policy rule. We find that policy discretion is an important contributor to aggregate risk. In addition, discretionary easing coincides with good news about the macroeconomy in the form of lower inflation, higher output growth, and lower risk premiums on short-term nominal bonds. However, it also coincides with bad news about long-term financial conditions in the form of higher risk premiums on long-term nominal bonds. Shocks to the rule correlate with changes in the yield curve' s level. Shocks to discretion correlate with changes in its slope.

Suggested Citation

  • Backus, David & Zin, Stanley E. & Chernov, Mikhail & Zviadadze, Irina, 2013. "Monetary policy risk: Rules vs. discretion," CEPR Discussion Papers 9611, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    • Handle: RePEc:cpr:ceprdp:9611
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    Cited by:

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    3. Merim KASUMOVIĆ & Mirna MEŠIĆ, 2018. "Macroprudential stability indicators of financial systems: Analysis of Bosnia and Herzegovina and Croatia," Theoretical and Applied Economics, Asociatia Generala a Economistilor din Romania / Editura Economica, vol. 0(1(614), S), pages 41-54, Spring.
    4. Roman Sustek, 2021. "Yield curve and the business cycle in conventional times," Discussion Papers 2122, Centre for Macroeconomics (CFM).

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Forward-looking models; Identification; Monetary policy; Affine bond-pricing;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E43 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Interest Rates: Determination, Term Structure, and Effects
    • E52 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Monetary Policy
    • G12 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Asset Pricing; Trading Volume; Bond Interest Rates

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