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Estimates of Bilateral Trade Elasticities and Their Implications for the Modelling of `1992'

Author

Listed:
  • Brenton, Paul
  • Winters, L. Alan

Abstract

In this paper we use detailed trade and production data and a theoretically consistent model of demand - the Almost Ideal Demand System - to estimate bilateral trade elasticities, the key parameters required for quantification of the effects of the `1992' programme. Initial results for 70 West German manufacturing industries suggest that price elasticities are relatively low. The robustness of this result is assessed, firstly, using different data - for 15 Italian industries - and secondly, using a more restrictive form of the demand system, the CES model. In both these cases the earlier conclusions are reinforced. If the responsiveness to price changes is really as low as these results suggest the effects of `1992' may be quite different from that normally discussed. The impact of the programme will be felt most strongly in those industries currently subject to quantitative constraints.

Suggested Citation

  • Brenton, Paul & Winters, L. Alan, 1992. "Estimates of Bilateral Trade Elasticities and Their Implications for the Modelling of `1992'," CEPR Discussion Papers 717, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    • Handle: RePEc:cpr:ceprdp:717
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Karel Janda & Jill J. McCluskey & Gordon C. Rausser, 2000. "Food Import Demand in the Czech Republic," Journal of Agricultural Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 51(1), pages 22-44, January.
    2. Olivier Cortès & Sébastien Jean, 1996. "Pays émergents, emploi déficient ?," Working Papers 1996-05, CEPII research center.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    1992; Elasticities; Estimation;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • F13 - International Economics - - Trade - - - Trade Policy; International Trade Organizations
    • F14 - International Economics - - Trade - - - Empirical Studies of Trade
    • F15 - International Economics - - Trade - - - Economic Integration
    • F17 - International Economics - - Trade - - - Trade Forecasting and Simulation

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