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A Model of Currency Depreciation and the Debt-Inflation Spiral

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  • Obstfeld, Maurice

Abstract

This paper shows how a government that cannot make credible policy commitments might manage its exchange rate and fiscal stance in a world of rational expectations. The dynamic-game model developed here potentially can generate diverse patterns of macroeconomic behaviour, patterns that differ as a result of assumed differences in government objectives. Under some types of government, the ongoing strategic interaction between the public and private sectors leads to a disinflationary outcome. Other governments may push the economy into a spiral of rising debt and inflation.

Suggested Citation

  • Obstfeld, Maurice, 1990. "A Model of Currency Depreciation and the Debt-Inflation Spiral," CEPR Discussion Papers 431, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    • Handle: RePEc:cpr:ceprdp:431
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    Cited by:

    1. Giancarlo Corsetti & Bartosz Maćkowiak, 2024. "Gambling to Preserve Price (and Fiscal) Stability," IMF Economic Review, Palgrave Macmillan;International Monetary Fund, vol. 72(1), pages 32-57, March.
    2. Maurice Obstfeld, 1989. "Dynamic Seigniorage Theory: An Exploration," NBER Working Papers 2869, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    3. Ellison, Martin & Rankin, Neil, 2007. "Optimal monetary policy when lump-sum taxes are unavailable: A reconsideration of the outcomes under commitment and discretion," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 31(1), pages 219-243, January.
    4. Beetsma, Roel M. W. J. & Bovenberg, A. Lans, 1999. "Does monetary unification lead to excessive debt accumulation?," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 74(3), pages 299-325, December.
    5. Campbell Leith & Simon Wren-Lewis, 2013. "Fiscal Sustainability in a New Keynesian Model," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 45(8), pages 1477-1516, December.
    6. Malley, Jim & Philippopoulos, Apostolis & Economides, George, 2002. "Testing for tax smoothing in a general equilibrium model of growth," European Journal of Political Economy, Elsevier, vol. 18(2), pages 301-315, June.
    7. Margarita Katsimi, 2008. "Training, Job Security And Incentive Wages," Scottish Journal of Political Economy, Scottish Economic Society, vol. 55(1), pages 67-78, February.
    8. Kollintzas, T. & Philippopoulos, A. & Vasillatos, V., 1999. "Is Tax Policy Coordination Necessary?," Athens University of Economics and Business 110, Athens University of Economics and Business, Department of International and European Economic Studies.
    9. Beetsma, Roel M. W. J. & Bovenberg, A. Lans, 1997. "Central bank independence and public debt policy," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 21(4-5), pages 873-894, May.
    10. Natasha Miaouli, 2001. "Employment and Capital Accumulation in Unionised Labour Markets: Evidence from five south-European countries," International Review of Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 15(1), pages 5-29.
    11. Gauti B. Eggertsson, 2013. "Fiscal Multipliers and Policy Coordination," Central Banking, Analysis, and Economic Policies Book Series, in: Luis Felipe Céspedes & Jordi Galí (ed.),Fiscal Policy and Macroeconomic Performance, edition 1, volume 17, chapter 6, pages 175-234, Central Bank of Chile.
    12. Joscha Beckmann & Ansgar Belke & Michael Kühl, 2015. "Foreign exchange market interventions and the $-¥ exchange rate in the long run," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 47(38), pages 4037-4055, August.
    13. Economides, George & Philippopoulos, Apostolis & Price, Simon, 2003. "How elections affect fiscal policy and growth: revisiting the mechanism," European Journal of Political Economy, Elsevier, vol. 19(4), pages 777-792, November.
    14. Beetsma, R. & Bovenberg, A.L., 1995. "The role of public debt in the game of double chicken," Research Memorandum 025, Maastricht University, Maastricht Research School of Economics of Technology and Organization (METEOR).

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