IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/cpr/ceprdp/3900.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

The Price of Future Liquidity: Time-Varying Liquidity in the US Treasury Market

Author

Listed:
  • Goldreich, David
  • Hanke, Bernd
  • Nath, Purnendu

Abstract

This Paper examines the price differences between very liquid on-the-run US Treasury securities and less liquid off-the-run securities over the entire on/off cycle. Unlike previous studies, by comparing pairs of securities as their relative liquidity varies over time, we can disregard any cross-sectional differences between the securities. Also, since the liquidity of Treasury notes varies predictably over time we are able to distinguish between current liquidity and expected future liquidity. We show that the more liquid security is priced higher on average, but that this difference depends on the amount of expected future liquidity over its remaining lifetime rather than its current liquidity. We measure future liquidity using both quotes and trades. The liquidity measures include bid-ask spread, depth and trading activity. Examining a variety of liquidity measures enables us to evaluate their relative importance and to identify the liquidity proxies that most affect prices. Although all the measures are highly correlated with one another, we find that quoted bid-ask spread and quoted depth are more important than effective spread and trade size, respectively. Among measures of market activity, however, the number of trades and volume are more related to the liquidity premium than the number of quotes.

Suggested Citation

  • Goldreich, David & Hanke, Bernd & Nath, Purnendu, 2003. "The Price of Future Liquidity: Time-Varying Liquidity in the US Treasury Market," CEPR Discussion Papers 3900, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    • Handle: RePEc:cpr:ceprdp:3900
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://cepr.org/publications/DP3900
    Download Restriction: CEPR Discussion Papers are free to download for our researchers, subscribers and members. If you fall into one of these categories but have trouble downloading our papers, please contact us at subscribers@cepr.org
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Brennan, Michael J. & Subrahmanyam, Avanidhar, 1996. "Market microstructure and asset pricing: On the compensation for illiquidity in stock returns," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 41(3), pages 441-464, July.
    2. Menachem Brenner & Rafi Eldor & Shmuel Hauser, 2001. "The Price of Options Illiquidity," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 56(2), pages 789-805, April.
    3. Michael J. Fleming, 2003. "Measuring treasury market liquidity," Economic Policy Review, Federal Reserve Bank of New York, issue Sep, pages 83-108.
    4. Tarun Chordia & Richard Roll & Avanidhar Subrahmanyam, 2001. "Market Liquidity and Trading Activity," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 56(2), pages 501-530, April.
    5. Jones, Charles M & Kaul, Gautam & Lipson, Marc L, 1994. "Transactions, Volume, and Volatility," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 7(4), pages 631-651.
    6. Boudoukh, Jacob & Whitelaw, Robert F, 1993. "Liquidity as a Choice Variable: A Lesson from the Japanese Government Bond Market," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 6(2), pages 265-292.
    7. Sarig, Oded & Warga, Arthur, 1989. "Bond Price Data and Bond Market Liquidity," Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, Cambridge University Press, vol. 24(3), pages 367-378, September.
    8. Pastor, Lubos & Stambaugh, Robert F., 2003. "Liquidity Risk and Expected Stock Returns," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 111(3), pages 642-685, June.
    9. Amihud, Yakov & Mendelson, Haim, 1986. "Asset pricing and the bid-ask spread," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 17(2), pages 223-249, December.
    10. Pierluigi Balduzzi & Edwin J. Elton & T. Clifton Green, 1996. "Economic News and the Yield Curve: Evidence From the U.S. Treasury Market," New York University, Leonard N. Stern School Finance Department Working Paper Seires 96-13, New York University, Leonard N. Stern School of Business-.
    11. Eleswarapu, Venkat R. & Reinganum, Marc R., 1993. "The seasonal behavior of the liquidity premium in asset pricing," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 34(3), pages 373-386, December.
    12. Buraschi, Andrea & Menini, Davide, 2002. "Liquidity risk and specialness," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 64(2), pages 243-284, May.
    13. Barclay, Michael J. & Kandel, Eugene & Marx, Leslie M., 1998. "The Effects of Transaction Costs on Stock Prices and Trading Volume," Journal of Financial Intermediation, Elsevier, vol. 7(2), pages 130-150, April.
    14. Elroy Dimson & Bernd Hanke, 2004. "The Expected Illiquidity Premium: Evidence from Equity Index-Linked Bonds," Review of Finance, European Finance Association, vol. 8(1), pages 19-47.
    15. Chalmers, John M. R. & Kadlec, Gregory B., 1998. "An empirical examination of the amortized spread," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 48(2), pages 159-188, May.
    16. Michael J. Fleming, 1997. "The round-the-clock market for U.S. Treasury securities," Economic Policy Review, Federal Reserve Bank of New York, vol. 3(Jul), pages 9-32.
    17. Balduzzi, Pierluigi & Elton, Edwin J. & Green, T. Clifton, 2001. "Economic News and Bond Prices: Evidence from the U.S. Treasury Market," Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, Cambridge University Press, vol. 36(4), pages 523-543, December.
    18. Eleswarapu, Venkat R, 1997. "Cost of Transacting and Expected Returns in the Nasdaq Market," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 52(5), pages 2113-2127, December.
    19. Fama, Eugene F & MacBeth, James D, 1973. "Risk, Return, and Equilibrium: Empirical Tests," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 81(3), pages 607-636, May-June.
    20. Datar, Vinay T. & Y. Naik, Narayan & Radcliffe, Robert, 1998. "Liquidity and stock returns: An alternative test," Journal of Financial Markets, Elsevier, vol. 1(2), pages 203-219, August.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Perras, Patrizia & Wagner, Niklas, 2020. "Pricing equity-bond covariance risk: Between flight-to-quality and fear-of-missing-out," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 121(C).
    2. Chris D'Souza & Charles Gaa, 2004. "The Effects of Economic News on Bond Market Liquidity," Staff Working Papers 04-16, Bank of Canada.
    3. repec:dau:papers:123456789/2201 is not listed on IDEAS
    4. Michael J. Fleming, 2003. "Measuring treasury market liquidity," Economic Policy Review, Federal Reserve Bank of New York, issue Sep, pages 83-108.
    5. Vayanos, Dimitri, 2004. "Flight to quality, flight to liquidity, and the pricing of risk," LSE Research Online Documents on Economics 456, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library.
    6. Frank de Jong & Joost Driessen, 2012. "Liquidity Risk Premia in Corporate Bond Markets," Quarterly Journal of Finance (QJF), World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd., vol. 2(02), pages 1-34.
    7. Sohnke M. Bartram & Frank R. Fehle, 2003. "Alternative Market Structures for Derivatives," Finance 0311007, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 12 Dec 2003.
    8. Chris D'Souza & Charles Gaa & Jing Yang, 2003. "An Empirical Analysis of Liquidity and Order Flow in the Brokered Interdealer Market for Government of Canada Bonds," Staff Working Papers 03-28, Bank of Canada.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. David Goldreich & Bernd Hanke & Purnendu Nath, 2005. "The Price of Future Liquidity: Time-Varying Liquidity in the U.S. Treasury Market," Review of Finance, Springer, vol. 9(1), pages 1-32, March.
    2. Maria Ludovica Drudi & Giulio Carlo Venturi, 2023. "Assessing the liquidity premium in the Italian bond market," Questioni di Economia e Finanza (Occasional Papers) 795, Bank of Italy, Economic Research and International Relations Area.
    3. Vayanos, Dimitri & Wang, Jiang, 2013. "Market Liquidity—Theory and Empirical Evidence ," Handbook of the Economics of Finance, in: G.M. Constantinides & M. Harris & R. M. Stulz (ed.), Handbook of the Economics of Finance, volume 2, chapter 0, pages 1289-1361, Elsevier.
    4. Acharya, Viral V. & Pedersen, Lasse Heje, 2005. "Asset pricing with liquidity risk," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 77(2), pages 375-410, August.
    5. Peter Christoffersen & Ruslan Goyenko & Kris Jacobs & Mehdi Karoui, 2018. "Illiquidity Premia in the Equity Options Market," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 31(3), pages 811-851.
    6. Dimitri Vayanos & Jiang Wang, 2012. "Market Liquidity -- Theory and Empirical Evidence," NBER Working Papers 18251, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    7. Szymon Stereńczak, 2020. "State-Dependent Stock Liquidity Premium: The Case of the Warsaw Stock Exchange," IJFS, MDPI, vol. 8(1), pages 1-24, March.
    8. Banti, Chiara & Phylaktis, Kate & Sarno, Lucio, 2012. "Global liquidity risk in the foreign exchange market," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 31(2), pages 267-291.
    9. Ben-Rephael, Azi & Kadan, Ohad & Wohl, Avi, 2008. "The diminishing liquidity premium," CFS Working Paper Series 2008/52, Center for Financial Studies (CFS).
    10. Brennan, Michael J. & Chordia, Tarun & Subrahmanyam, Avanidhar & Tong, Qing, 2012. "Sell-order liquidity and the cross-section of expected stock returns," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 105(3), pages 523-541.
    11. Stereńczak, Szymon & Zaremba, Adam & Umar, Zaghum, 2020. "Is there an illiquidity premium in frontier markets?," Emerging Markets Review, Elsevier, vol. 42(C).
    12. Chan, Justin S.P. & Hong, Dong & Subrahmanyam, Marti G., 2008. "A tale of two prices: Liquidity and asset prices in multiple markets," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 32(6), pages 947-960, June.
    13. Chordia, Tarun & Sarkar, Asani & Subrahmanyam, Avanidhar, 2001. "An Empirical Analysis of Stock and Bond Market Liquidity: Forthcoming in the Review of Financial Studies," University of California at Los Angeles, Anderson Graduate School of Management qt9178v9kq, Anderson Graduate School of Management, UCLA.
    14. Tarun Chordia & Asani Sarkar & Avanidhar Subrahmanyam, 2003. "An empirical analysis of stock and bond market liquidity," Staff Reports 164, Federal Reserve Bank of New York.
    15. Lischewski, Judith & Voronkova, Svitlana, 2012. "Size, value and liquidity. Do They Really Matter on an Emerging Stock Market?," Emerging Markets Review, Elsevier, vol. 13(1), pages 8-25.
    16. Ho, Tsung-wu & Chang, Shu-Hwa, 2015. "The pricing of liquidity risk on the Shanghai stock market," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 38(C), pages 112-130.
    17. Amihud, Yakov, 2002. "Illiquidity and stock returns: cross-section and time-series effects," Journal of Financial Markets, Elsevier, vol. 5(1), pages 31-56, January.
    18. Daniel Chai & Robert Faff & Philip Gharghori, 2013. "Liquidity in asset pricing: New Australian evidence using low-frequency data," Australian Journal of Management, Australian School of Business, vol. 38(2), pages 375-400, August.
    19. Cakici, Nusret & Zaremba, Adam, 2021. "Liquidity and the cross-section of international stock returns," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 127(C).
    20. Dong, Liang & Yu, Bo & Qin, Zhenjiang & Lam, Keith S.K., 2024. "Liquidity risk and expected returns in China’s stock market: A multidimensional liquidity approach," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 69(C).

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Liquidity; Asset pricing;

    JEL classification:

    • G12 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Asset Pricing; Trading Volume; Bond Interest Rates
    • G14 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Information and Market Efficiency; Event Studies; Insider Trading

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:cpr:ceprdp:3900. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: the person in charge (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://www.cepr.org .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.