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Options For The Exchange Rate Policies Of The EU Accession Countries (And Other Emerging Market Economies)

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  • Bofinger, Peter
  • Wollmershäuser, Timo

Abstract

We develop an institutional framework for central banks that try to pursue a stability-oriented monetary policy with the strategy of exchange rate targeting. Recent experience shows that a crucial element of this approach is to avoid destabilizing capital inflows. Policy makers can exert monetary pressure by two different but interrelated channels: the interest rate and the exchange rate. We introduce an open-economy Taylor Rule that determines the domestic interest rate of a central bank targeting a depreciation of its exchange rate. The interrelation of the two channels is taken into account by a risk premium adjusted uncovered interest parity condition. In our view sustained violations of this constraint provide an important explanation for the problem of speculative capital inflows. We distinguish between two basically different types of pegs: fixed nominal exchange rate targets and flexible nominal exchange rate targets. With the lessons that we draw from the past experiences of these regimes in Asia, Latin America, Eastern and Central Europe and the ERM I, we develop a framework for the exchange rate strategies of the accession countries during their path towards EMU entry.

Suggested Citation

  • Bofinger, Peter & Wollmershäuser, Timo, 2000. "Options For The Exchange Rate Policies Of The EU Accession Countries (And Other Emerging Market Economies)," CEPR Discussion Papers 2379, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    • Handle: RePEc:cpr:ceprdp:2379
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    Cited by:

    1. Hochreiter, Eduard, 2000. "Exchange rate regimes and capital mobility: issues and some lessons from central and eastern European applicant countries," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 11(2), pages 155-171, December.
    2. Schweickert, Rainer, 2001. "Assessing the advantages of EMU-enlargement for the EU and the accession countries: a comparative indicator approach," Kiel Working Papers 1080, Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW Kiel).
    3. Balazs Egert & Amina Lahrèche-Revil, 2003. "Estimating the Fundamental Equilibrium Exchange Rate of Central and Eastern European Countries; The EMU Enlargement Perspective," Working Papers 2003-05, CEPII research center.
    4. Frensch, Richard, 2001. "Some perspectives on currency relations between EMU and Central and East European EU accession countries," Economic Systems, Elsevier, vol. 25(3), pages 175-181, September.
    5. Gabrisch, Hubert, 2002. "Financial fragility and exchange rate arrangements of EU candidate countries," IWH Discussion Papers 156/2002, Halle Institute for Economic Research (IWH).

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    risk premium; Capital flows; Uip; Emerging market economies; Monetary integration; open-economy Taylor Rule; monetary pressure index; EU accession countries; flexible nominal exchange rate target;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E42 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Monetary Sytsems; Standards; Regimes; Government and the Monetary System
    • F33 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - International Monetary Arrangements and Institutions
    • F36 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Financial Aspects of Economic Integration
    • F41 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - Open Economy Macroeconomics

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