IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/cpr/ceprdp/19330.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Local Decline and Populism

Author

Listed:
  • Fetzer, Thiemo
  • Edenhofer, Jacob
  • Garg, Prashant

Abstract

Support for right-wing populist parties is characterised by considerable regional heterogeneity and especially concentrated in regions that have experienced economic decline. It remains unclear, however, whether the spatial externalities of local decline, including homelessness and crime, boost support for populist parties, even among those not directly affected by such decline. In this paper, we contribute to filling this gap in two ways. First, we gather novel data on a particularly visible form of local decline, high-street vacancies, that comprise 83,000 premises in England and Wales. Second, we investigate the influence of local decline on support for the right-wing populist UK Independence Party (UKIP) between 2009 and 2019. We find a significant positive association between high-street vacancy rates and UKIP support. These results enhance our understanding of how changes in the lived environment shape political preferences and behaviour, particularly in relation to right-wing populism.

Suggested Citation

  • Fetzer, Thiemo & Edenhofer, Jacob & Garg, Prashant, 2024. "Local Decline and Populism," CEPR Discussion Papers 19330, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    • Handle: RePEc:cpr:ceprdp:19330
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://cepr.org/publications/DP19330
    Download Restriction: CEPR Discussion Papers are free to download for our researchers, subscribers and members. If you fall into one of these categories but have trouble downloading our papers, please contact us at subscribers@cepr.org
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to look for a different version below or search for a different version of it.

    Other versions of this item:

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. David Autor & David Dorn & Gordon Hanson & Kaveh Majlesi, 2020. "Importing Political Polarization? The Electoral Consequences of Rising Trade Exposure," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 110(10), pages 3139-3183, October.
    2. Che, Yi & Xu, Xun & Zhang, Yan, 2018. "Chinese import competition, crime, and government transfers in US," Journal of Comparative Economics, Elsevier, vol. 46(2), pages 544-567.
    3. Sascha O Becker & Thiemo Fetzer & Dennis Novy, 2017. "Who voted for Brexit? A comprehensive district-level analysis," Economic Policy, CEPR, CESifo, Sciences Po;CES;MSH, vol. 32(92), pages 601-650.
    4. Gold, Robert & Lehr, Jakob, 2024. "Paying Off Populism: How Regional Policies Affect Voting Behavior," VfS Annual Conference 2024 (Berlin): Upcoming Labor Market Challenges 302441, Verein für Socialpolitik / German Economic Association.
    5. Philip McCann, 2020. "Perceptions of regional inequality and the geography of discontent: insights from the UK," Regional Studies, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 54(2), pages 256-267, February.
    6. Christian Dippel & Robert Gold & Stephan Heblich & Rodrigo Pinto, 2022. "The Effect of Trade on Workers and Voters," The Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 132(641), pages 199-217.
    7. ., 2024. "Towards European economic sovereignty," Chapters, in: Sovereign Europe, chapter 6, pages 104-116, Edward Elgar Publishing.
    8. Broz, J. Lawrence & Frieden, Jeffry & Weymouth, Stephen, 2021. "Populism in Place: The Economic Geography of the Globalization Backlash," International Organization, Cambridge University Press, vol. 75(2), pages 464-494, February.
    9. Green, Jane & Hellwig, Timothy & Fieldhouse, Edward, 2022. "Who Gets What: The Economy, Relative Gains and Brexit," British Journal of Political Science, Cambridge University Press, vol. 52(1), pages 320-338, January.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Maria Greve & Michael Fritsch & Michael Wyrwich, 2023. "Long‐term decline of regions and the rise of populism: The case of Germany," Journal of Regional Science, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 63(2), pages 409-445, March.
    2. Maurice Obstfeld, 2021. "Globalization and nationalism: Retrospect and prospect," Contemporary Economic Policy, Western Economic Association International, vol. 39(4), pages 675-690, October.
    3. Andrés Rodríguez-Pose & Neil Lee & Cornelius Lipp, 2021. "Golfing with Trump. Social capital, decline, inequality, and the rise of populism in the US," Cambridge Journal of Regions, Economy and Society, Cambridge Political Economy Society, vol. 14(3), pages 457-481.
    4. Mona Foertsch & Felix Roesel, 2023. "Sports Clubs and Populism: Quasi-Experimental Evidence from German Cities," CESifo Working Paper Series 10259, CESifo.
    5. Eugenio Levi & Isabelle Sin & Steven Stillman, 2024. "The lasting impact of external shocks on political opinions and populist voting," Economic Inquiry, Western Economic Association International, vol. 62(1), pages 349-374, January.
    6. Niklas Potrafke & Felix Roesel, 2022. "Online Versus Offline: Which Networks Spur Protests?," CESifo Working Paper Series 9969, CESifo.
    7. Kellermann, Kim Leonie, 2024. "Trust we lost: The impact of the Treuhand experience on political alienation in East Germany," Journal of Comparative Economics, Elsevier, vol. 52(1), pages 54-75.
    8. Rickard, Stephanie, 2022. "Economic geography, politics, and the world trade regime," LSE Research Online Documents on Economics 113857, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library.
    9. Piero Stanig & Italo Colantone & Gianmarco Ottaviano, 2024. "A Popular Backlash Against Globalization?," BAFFI CAREFIN Working Papers 24226, BAFFI CAREFIN, Centre for Applied Research on International Markets Banking Finance and Regulation, Universita' Bocconi, Milano, Italy.
    10. Dani Rodrik, 2018. "Populism and the economics of globalization," Journal of International Business Policy, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 1(1), pages 12-33, June.
    11. Biswajit Banerjee & Risto Herrala, 2024. "Testing the impact of liquidation speed on leverage using Indian data," Working Papers 113, Ashoka University, Department of Economics.
    12. Braml, Martin & Felbermayr, Gabriel, 2018. "Understanding Free Trade Attitudes: Evidence from Europe," VfS Annual Conference 2018 (Freiburg, Breisgau): Digital Economy 181591, Verein für Socialpolitik / German Economic Association.
    13. Sebastian Doerr & Stefan Gissler & José‐Luis Peydró & Hans‐Joachim Voth, 2022. "Financial Crises and Political Radicalization: How Failing Banks Paved Hitler's Path to Power," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 77(6), pages 3339-3372, December.
    14. Haas, Levi & Schenk-Hoppé, Klaus R., 2019. "International Trade: Smarten up to talk the talk," MPRA Paper 99096, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    15. Matthieu Crozet & Laura Hering & Sandra Poncet, 2024. "Is There a Bright Side to the China Syndrome? Rising Export Opportunities and Life Satisfaction in China," PSE-Ecole d'économie de Paris (Postprint) hal-04505684, HAL.
    16. Amory Gethin & Clara Martínez-Toledano & Thomas Piketty, 2022. "Brahmin Left Versus Merchant Right: Changing Political Cleavages in 21 Western Democracies, 1948–2020," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 137(1), pages 1-48.
    17. Thiemo Fetzer, 2019. "Did Austerity Cause Brexit?," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 109(11), pages 3849-3886, November.
    18. Anand, Kartik & Gai, Prasanna & König, Philipp Johann, 2020. "Leaping into the dark: A theory of policy gambles," Discussion Papers 07/2020, Deutsche Bundesbank.
    19. Sergei Guriev & Elias Papaioannou, 2022. "The Political Economy of Populism," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 60(3), pages 753-832, September.
    20. Sebastian Doerr & Stefan Gissler & José-Luis Peydró & Hans-Joachim Voth, 2018. "From finance to fascism," Economics Working Papers 1651, Department of Economics and Business, Universitat Pompeu Fabra, revised Nov 2020.

    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • Z13 - Other Special Topics - - Cultural Economics - - - Economic Sociology; Economic Anthropology; Language; Social and Economic Stratification
    • R23 - Urban, Rural, Regional, Real Estate, and Transportation Economics - - Household Analysis - - - Regional Migration; Regional Labor Markets; Population
    • D72 - Microeconomics - - Analysis of Collective Decision-Making - - - Political Processes: Rent-seeking, Lobbying, Elections, Legislatures, and Voting Behavior
    • C83 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Data Collection and Data Estimation Methodology; Computer Programs - - - Survey Methods; Sampling Methods
    • P36 - Political Economy and Comparative Economic Systems - - Socialist Institutions and Their Transitions - - - Consumer Economics; Health; Education and Training; Welfare, Income, Wealth, and Poverty

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:cpr:ceprdp:19330. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: the person in charge (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://www.cepr.org .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.