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Fiscal Discipline and Exchange Rate Regimes

Author

Listed:
  • Canzoneri, Matthew B
  • Cumby, Robert
  • Diba, Behzad

Abstract

This paper explores the implications of a new theory of price determination (due to Leeper, Woodford and Sims) for the maintenance of various exchange rate systems – crawling pegs, fixed pegs, and common currency areas. It shows that deeper monetary integration requires more fiscal discipline, especially if price stability is an objective; these monetary arrangements cannot be achieved by monetary policy alone, as conventional wisdom would seem to suggest. A particularly striking result is that a currency peg is simply not sustainable if fiscal surpluses are determined by an exogenous political process; maintenance of a fixed currency peg requires the government to guarantee fiscal solvency for any equilibrium sequence of prices (which Woodford calls a Ricardian Regime). Interestingly, the debt and deficit constraints that were written into the Maastricht Treaty, and will continue in the Stability Pact after EMU, are examples of the fiscal discipline that is required.

Suggested Citation

  • Canzoneri, Matthew B & Cumby, Robert & Diba, Behzad, 1998. "Fiscal Discipline and Exchange Rate Regimes," CEPR Discussion Papers 1899, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    • Handle: RePEc:cpr:ceprdp:1899
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Daniel, Betty C, 2001. "A Fiscal Theory of Currency Crises," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 42(4), pages 969-988, November.
    2. M. Marzo, 2001. "An Equilibrium Approach to the Term Structure of Interest rates with the Interaction between Monetary and Fiscal Policy," Working Papers 410, Dipartimento Scienze Economiche, Universita' di Bologna.
    3. Mauro Visaggio, 2004. "Does Stability and Growth Pact Provide an Adequate and Consistent Fiscal Rule?," Macroeconomics 0407008, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    4. Pelin Oge Guney, 2007. "Fiscal Theory of Exchange Rate Determination: Empirical Evidence from Turkey," Economics Bulletin, AccessEcon, vol. 5(7), pages 1-12.
    5. Matthew B. Canzoneri & Robert E. Cumby & Behzad T. Diba, 2001. "Is the Price Level Determined by the Needs of Fiscal Solvency?," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 91(5), pages 1221-1238, December.
    6. Woodford, Michael, 2001. "Fiscal Requirements for Price Stability," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 33(3), pages 669-728, August.
    7. Giorgio Pizzutto, 1998. "La Teoria Fiscale dei Prezzi In un'Economia Aperta," Departmental Working Papers 1998-07, Department of Economics, Management and Quantitative Methods at Università degli Studi di Milano.
    8. M. Marzo, 2001. "Monetary and Fiscal Policy Interactions: the Impact on the Term Structure of Interest Rates," Working Papers 409, Dipartimento Scienze Economiche, Universita' di Bologna.
    9. International Monetary Fund, 2008. "Fiscal and Monetary Anchors for Price Stability: Evidence from Sub-Saharan Africa," IMF Working Papers 2008/121, International Monetary Fund.
    10. Galvis Ciro, Juan Camilo & Bedoya Ospina, Juan Guillermo & Loaiza Maya, Rubén Albeiro, 2011. "Una regla de política fiscal óptima para la economía colombiana: aproximación desde un modelo de equilibrio general dinámico y estocástico," Revista Lecturas de Economía, Universidad de Antioquia, CIE, November.
    11. John Lewis, 2007. "Fiscal policy in central and Eastern Europe: what happened in the run-up to EU accession?," International Economics and Economic Policy, Springer, vol. 4(1), pages 15-31, April.
    12. Welsch Heinz, 2000. "Domestic Fiscal Policy in a Monetary Union: What are the Spillovers? / Fiskalpolitik in einer Währungsunion: Internationale Auswirkungen," Journal of Economics and Statistics (Jahrbuecher fuer Nationaloekonomie und Statistik), De Gruyter, vol. 220(3), pages 327-342, June.
    13. repec:ebl:ecbull:v:5:y:2007:i:7:p:1-12 is not listed on IDEAS

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Exchange Rate Regimes; Fiscal Discipline; price determination;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E31 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Price Level; Inflation; Deflation
    • F33 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - International Monetary Arrangements and Institutions
    • F41 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - Open Economy Macroeconomics

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