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Forward interest rates as predictors of future US and UK spot rates before and after the 2008 financial crisis

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  • Wickens, Michael R.

Abstract

A feature of the financial crisis rarely mentioned in the academic literature is that forward interest rates remained persistently higher than future spot rates. Yet according to the expectations hypothesis forward interest rates are unbiased predictors of future spot rates. More general theories attribute the forecast errors to term premia. This paper examines whether these theories can explain data for the US and UK that spans the financial crisis and whether alternative approaches provide better forecasts. The main findings are that these theories break down after the financial crisis and, not unexpectedly, that the forecast errors are due mainly to monetary policy.

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  • Wickens, Michael R., 2020. "Forward interest rates as predictors of future US and UK spot rates before and after the 2008 financial crisis," CEPR Discussion Papers 14800, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    • Handle: RePEc:cpr:ceprdp:14800
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Mishkin, Frederic S, 1988. "The Information in the Term Structure: Some Further Results," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 3(4), pages 307-314, October-D.
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    4. Stephen A. Buser & G. Andrew Karolyi & Anthony B. Sanders, "undated". "Adjusted Forward Rates as Predictors of Future Spot Rates," Research in Financial Economics 9605, Ohio State University.
    5. Alfonso Novales & Emilio Domínguez, 2002. "Can forward rates be used to improve interest rate forecasts?"," Documentos de Trabajo del ICAE 0225, Universidad Complutense de Madrid, Facultad de Ciencias Económicas y Empresariales, Instituto Complutense de Análisis Económico.
    6. Ang, Andrew & Piazzesi, Monika, 2003. "A no-arbitrage vector autoregression of term structure dynamics with macroeconomic and latent variables," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 50(4), pages 745-787, May.
    7. repec:bla:jfinan:v:43:y:1988:i:2:p:339-56 is not listed on IDEAS
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